Bonnie Advisories

yoda · #141 Postby **yoda** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:51 pm

What do you mean Tip?

chadtm80 · #142 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:52 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
chadtm80 wrote:I agree with you like always AFM.. 5pm will be to early to pull the trigger, but if things look good overnight, then 5am will be a different story

Yeah...they'll wait until the early morning vis shots are in. No need in putting out an advisory now when you don't know if it will hold together unless they see something that leads them to know for sure...like a ship report with a 1006mb pressure and a 20 kt west wind.

Another thing I noticed is a mid-level circulation that is catching up with the system from the east...it just passed 12N / 45W a few frames ago. It should overtake the low level system in the next few hours. It will be interesting to see if the system stacks then and gets going. Its arrival has coincided with the latest burst of convection.

Interesting.. Great Eyes, I hadnt noticed that untill you pointed it out.. That may help feed a "blow up".. Boy oh Boy.. Welcome to August

stormernie · #143 Postby **stormernie** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 3:46 pm

The Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands will be upgraded to Tropical Depression 2 at 5 PM....

Local News Stations are reporting.

Stormchaser16 · #144 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 3:47 pm

I havent seen any upgrades yet

Stormsfury · #145 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 3:55 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:I havent seen any upgrades yet

Nor have I ... but as a note, the old TPC Header (last year's storm) used where the next depression/storm will be used is blank, and was taken down just a little while ago ...

SF

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #146 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 3:55 pm

This system remains 91L.

Aquawind · #147 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 4:00 pm

Well the visable loop looks awesome as the sun sets..

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html

ColdFront77 · #148 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 4:01 pm

I don't understand why someone would make something up from a local news report. I assume it was misheard.

stormernie · #149 Postby **stormernie** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 4:09 pm

It was quoted by Channel 7 in Miami, but, given there background I should have known better. Regardless, it looks like a storm on satellite...

Sorry for confusion

Stormsfury · #150 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 4:10 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:I don't understand why someone would make something up from a local news report. I assume it was misheard.

Or media hype ...

Stormsfury · #151 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 4:11 pm

Aquawind wrote:Well the visable loop looks awesome as the sun sets..

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html

The satellite representation is pretty impressive, but the spiral band south of the twist did produce an outflow boundary ... granted that boundary is heading towards the suspected LL swirl from the S or SSW ...

HurricaneMaster_PR · #152 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 4:14 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

ColdFront77 · #153 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 4:16 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Or media hype ...

Ugh... Media hype sounds so annoying to me. They report what they report. But I will unfortunately have about 95% of people against me on that issue.

Stormsfury · #154 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 4:17 pm

91L is beginning to show some signs of closing off a circulation ... the southerly low level clouds are not really moving in tandem towards the west, but appear to be stationary as the swirl passes to the north ...

If convective trends continue to increase, and the organization does continue to look better, 91L should be upgrade in 12-24 hours ...

SF

Stormchaser16 · #155 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 4:18 pm

They report what they report yes, but alot of it is hype......

ratings......ratings.......ratings........

ColdFront77 · #156 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 4:19 pm

Sure they want ratings. Oh well... I don't know what else to say. I try my best and get "attacked" on this particular quite a bit.

Stormchaser16 · #157 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 4:20 pm

I would agree with that assessment SF...

Nothing but dry air out ahead of it though
Shear has decreased out ahead of it yet only to increase again upon reaching the Islands......

It will have a tough go of it if it were to develop into anything, however its already had a tough go and has held its own, thus I feel it is organized enough to warrant a possible depression within 24 hours.

Bane · #158 Postby **Bane** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 4:22 pm

Ugh... Media hype sounds so annoying to me. They report what they report. But I will unfortunately have about 95% of people against me on that issue.

They overhype hoping you'll tune in, which increases their ratings. Increased ratings means higher ad costs and revenues.

Stormsfury · #159 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 4:24 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:I would agree with that assessment SF...

Nothing but dry air out ahead of it though
Shear has decreased out ahead of it yet only to increase again upon reaching the Islands......

It will have a tough go of it if it were to develop into anything, however its already had a tough go and has held its own, thus I feel it is organized enough to warrant a possible depression within 24 hours.

Another advantage to its own is that it's taking advantage of what moisture that it does have. it's overcome a lot and IF the 00z ECMWF verifies, still might be in a position to become a player ... there's a 1015mb low about where Alex is right now at Day 7 on that run.

SF

Guest · #160 Postby **Guest** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 4:52 pm

Does 91L look like its getting to close to U.S Coast to develop into something serious or is the distance sufficient to develop into a cane?

Bonnie Advisories

TD # 2 - 5 PM

Floater is now in function for 91L

91L

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