Ivan Advisories

[MBismyPlayground]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhh

The Super secret FSU SuperEnsemble has moved to the keys... lol

This advisory sure is foreboding about what we have been seeing ever since late this morning... Mike and I have been posting many things that support this shift... People should remain vigilant to see what may occur...
This could lead to a strike in the carolinas... Where is hurricane_lover when we need him?
-Eric

NO NO NO to the Carolina's. I am sure that big eye of Ivans can see the detour sign.

[Fego]

I hope this link will help, if I'm not wrong, it is half an hour updated than the NOAA sat.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

[Sanibel]

That track is pretty much right over the top of us. Our local weathermen say friday night will tells us whether the steering influences they expect will be there or not...

Interesting that we have another NHC track where the initial keeps going past due but they stick with the curve and outcome...

[wxwatcher2]

Well, what I've realized after 24/7 of the last month of hurricane watching is that you have to watch the tack and the trends. Don't pay too much attention to the forecast intensity. This is the one area of hurricane forecasting that is not as accurate as say, the track forecasts.
I say, any hurricane is a problem and anything above a 2 is a Major problem. Highter than a 3 is just crazy.
If you are in Florida, I have one word for you.

PREPARE.
Don't panic or say OMG........just prepare.

[Ixolib]

That track is pretty much right over the top of us. Our local weathermen say friday night will tells us whether the steering influences they expect will be there or not...

Interesting that we have another NHC track where the initial keeps going past due but they stick with the curve and outcome...

Yes, that is interesting. Been watching your posts and you seem to have pretty good insights. Any insight on their reasoning?

[boca]

We are royally screwed if Ivan comes up this way.This is another Andrew but bigger I hope by any miracle that it misses,I hope GOD is watching out for us now.PLEASE NOT FLORIDA

[cape_escape]

That track is pretty much right over the top of us. Our local weathermen say friday night will tells us whether the steering influences they expect will be there or not...

Interesting that we have another NHC track where the initial keeps going past due but they stick with the curve and outcome...

Yes, that is interesting. Been watching your posts and you seem to have pretty good insights. Any insight on their reasoning?

Nice to know I'm not the only one following Sanibel around! Where are you located? I'm in Cape Coral.

[anjou]

An early damage estimate put the island's toll at $1 billion (along with several lives)

...More detail from threads on this page at StormCarib.com:http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/grenada.shtml

(From CDERA, the official disaster agency for the region):

Nine of every ten buildings are damaged or destroyed. Virtually every school
and church in the Capital St Georges as well as the police headquarters has
been destroyed. The only two buildings in reasonable condition are the Grenada
General Hospital and Government Headquarters.

There is no water, no electricity and very limited cell phone coverage. Only
some cell towers are functional.

Security situation is grave and the Regional Security System has deployed
security personnel.

All prisoners are on the loose.

---------

And this from a poster to the site:

...Mitchell confirmed that a 17th-century prison was destroyed, freeing an unknown number of inmates.

American students at St. George's University in the capital said they are protecting themselves with knives and pepper spray from machete-carrying looters in the city.

And this one:

We hear on the radio that many roads are blocked
with trees or washed out. Most of the trees have lost all leaves and
most branches. Most houses have lost roofs.

[montrealboy]

84 hrs



96 hrs



108 hrs



120 hrs

[Brent]

Looks like a hit in the Eastern Panhandle around Apalachicola etc.

[yoda]

Well, at least its back east some.. but it appears it suggests a W FL/ALA hit...

[wlfpack81]

Look at Mobile

[LakeToho]

CMC is not a very reliable model..

[Sanibel]

I've turned off my personal brain computer for synoptics on this one. I was way off on Frances. You are better off with NHC.

If I were to wing it and turn on my best instincts I would say that curve is unrealistic, but don't exclude it.

I do see the track resuming a mild curve again, so the center line is still possible.

My biggest fear with NHC not backing off their curve, as with Frances, is that Ivan will curve further west before making a wider turn. If a trough influence flow occurs in conjunction with the west flow around the ridge it is possible Ivan could hit us more from the SW instead of the south as the present track shows. A more SW angle brings Ivan over water longer and allows him a better run-up over the warm "Loop Current" coming up from the Gulf Stream. This is also a much worse surge angle. Such a turn would make Tampa more likely than Sanibel.

Something bugs me that Ivan's present track takes him more west of NHC - but what do I know?

I think we could all agree that this present resumption of 280* clears him of Honduras...


Hey guys, L-BAR was very accurate on Frances. It takes Ivan over SE Florida off Miami...

[PurdueWx80]

Still consistently into the Gulf, albeit slightly further east. The pattern it shows on the last graph is indicative of a storm that is stuck between steering currents. In fact, when the 144 comes out, I won't be surprised to see it along the Gulf Coast further west than what it has at 120 hours. THe last thing we need is a stalling storm over the northern Gulf.

[PurdueWx80]

CMC is not a very reliable model..

Since when??

[c5Camille]

this is very similar to the Orrt forcast...
very
http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

[Brent]

Still consistently into the Gulf, albeit slightly further east. The pattern it shows on the last graph is indicative of a storm that is stuck between steering currents. In fact, when the 144 comes out, I won't be surprised to see it along the Gulf Coast further west than what it has at 120 hours. THe last thing we need is a stalling storm over the northern Gulf.

Oh please no... If it's going to hit, it needs to be moving along like Charley.

[CFL]

Well this one would pretty much be a direct hit on me. Is this one any more accurate than the models that the NHC uses? I'm still learning here. . .

[Derecho]

CMC is not a very reliable model..

Since when??

Since... a long time. It's a low-resolution global compared to the others. On average, it does poorly.