Charley Advisories
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Charley wobbles
Looks like Charley's wobbling a little to west but it's hard to tell without a fri***** eye showing. This make be a reaction to ULL dipping southward and the ridge trying to build back over Cooba but the trough almost can't miss him so it's just a matter of when. I'm gonna say west of Tampa
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jlauderdal
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Brent wrote:I don't believe that and here's why:
The max flight level winds do not support that. They support 85, maybe 90 mph. NOW, the hurricane DOES have GUSTS to 100 mph right now.
Pressure is down to 983 mb, so I guess there's a chance winds will be up, but I don't have any evidence recon found strong enough winds.
most likely more media misinformation about charlie. i am sure there is more to come.
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The Dark Knight
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Derek Ortt
URNT14 KNHC 121408
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01183 10823 13147 11006 36019
02185 20821 23143 21006 35019
03186 30819 33138 31005 34020
04188 40817 43135 40906 35020
05190 50816 53126 50905 35024
06191 60813 63116 60808 32031
07193 70812 73102 70808 31048
MF195 M0810 MF065
OBS 01 AT 1302Z
OBS 07 AT 1328Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 99005
01197 10808 13040 10808 14075
02199 20806 23115 20808 13050
03200 30804 33134 30808 15062
04202 40802 43139 40908 14051
05204 50801 53146 50707 14055
06206 60799 63154 60706 14053
07208 70797 73163 70806 14052
MF197 M0809 MF089
OBS 01 AT 1337Z
OBS 07 AT 1403Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 12040
RMK AF966 0603A CHARLEY OB 15
89kt winds
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01183 10823 13147 11006 36019
02185 20821 23143 21006 35019
03186 30819 33138 31005 34020
04188 40817 43135 40906 35020
05190 50816 53126 50905 35024
06191 60813 63116 60808 32031
07193 70812 73102 70808 31048
MF195 M0810 MF065
OBS 01 AT 1302Z
OBS 07 AT 1328Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 99005
01197 10808 13040 10808 14075
02199 20806 23115 20808 13050
03200 30804 33134 30808 15062
04202 40802 43139 40908 14051
05204 50801 53146 50707 14055
06206 60799 63154 60706 14053
07208 70797 73163 70806 14052
MF197 M0809 MF089
OBS 01 AT 1337Z
OBS 07 AT 1403Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 12040
RMK AF966 0603A CHARLEY OB 15
89kt winds
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The Dark Knight
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stormtrackerFDK1
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stormtrackerFDK1
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drudd1
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I get a message that the website has exceeded it's maximum data transfer?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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The Dark Knight
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KBBOCA
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I'm sorry, I shouldn't laugh, really. I'm very worried about Tampa-St. Pete & Sarasota. I fear they have waited until too late to evac. and may not have adequately prepped people for a possible Cat. 3 storm making a direct hit. But the following line had me nearly rolling on the floor laughing at the irony:
"Also, the Sarasota County Hurricane/Flood Preparedness Expo, originally scheduled Saturday, Aug. 14, has been postponed for two weeks until Saturday, Aug. 28. It will be from 9 a.m.-2 p.m. at Robarts Arena, 3000 Ringling Blvd., Sarasota."
Ummm.....! 1) a little late for a Hurricane prep expo, don't you think?! and 2) I don't know that folks will need a hurricane prep expo after living through a strong cat 2 or weak cat 3. Experience is the best teacher!!
"Also, the Sarasota County Hurricane/Flood Preparedness Expo, originally scheduled Saturday, Aug. 14, has been postponed for two weeks until Saturday, Aug. 28. It will be from 9 a.m.-2 p.m. at Robarts Arena, 3000 Ringling Blvd., Sarasota."
Ummm.....! 1) a little late for a Hurricane prep expo, don't you think?! and 2) I don't know that folks will need a hurricane prep expo after living through a strong cat 2 or weak cat 3. Experience is the best teacher!!
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The Dark Knight
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Brent
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11am Charley-90 mph winds, Hurricane Watch extended
to the Mouth of the Suwanee River where the warnings for Bonnie end, LOL
Hurricane Charley Forecast/Advisory Number 13
Statement as of 15:00Z on August 12, 2004
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the
Dry Tortugas to the Seven Mile bridge...and for the southwest
Florida coast from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach. The warning
will likely be extended northward later today or tonight. A
Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Hurricane Watch has been extended
northward along the Florida west coast to the Suwannee river. The
Hurricane Watch is now in effect from north of Bonita Beach to the
Suwannee river. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions
are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile bridge to Ocean Reef...and along the South Florida
Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape Sable...including all of
Florida Bay. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of
the Florida east coast later today.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane
Warning for the following provinces of western Cuba...Pinar del Rio
...La Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Matanzas...and the Isle of
Youth.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Jamaica has discontinued
all warnings for Jamaica.
Hurricane center located near 19.7n 81.2w at 12/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm
present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 15 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 983 mb
eye diameter 15 nm
Max sustained winds 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt.
64 kt....... 20ne 15se 10sw 20nw.
50 kt....... 50ne 30se 10sw 40nw.
34 kt.......100ne 90se 30sw 75nw.
12 ft seas..180ne 110se 50sw 180nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 19.7n 81.2w at 12/1500z
at 12/1200z center was located near 19.2n 80.6w
forecast valid 13/0000z 21.6n 82.4w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 10sw 20nw.
50 kt... 50ne 30se 20sw 40nw.
34 kt...110ne 90se 30sw 80nw.
Forecast valid 13/1200z 24.6n 83.1w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 30se 15sw 25nw.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 25sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 100se 50sw 80nw.
Forecast valid 14/0000z 28.0n 82.8w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 30se 15sw 25nw.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 25sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 110se 60sw 80nw.
Forecast valid 14/1200z 32.2n 81.2w...inland
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 50sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 15/1200z 40.5n 76.0w...inland extratropical
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 0ne 100se 0sw 0nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 16/1200z 47.0n 66.0w...inland extratropical
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Outlook valid 17/1200z...absorbed by frontal system
request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 19.7n 81.2w
next advisory at 12/2100z
forecaster Stewart
Hurricane Charley Forecast/Advisory Number 13
Statement as of 15:00Z on August 12, 2004
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the
Dry Tortugas to the Seven Mile bridge...and for the southwest
Florida coast from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach. The warning
will likely be extended northward later today or tonight. A
Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Hurricane Watch has been extended
northward along the Florida west coast to the Suwannee river. The
Hurricane Watch is now in effect from north of Bonita Beach to the
Suwannee river. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions
are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile bridge to Ocean Reef...and along the South Florida
Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape Sable...including all of
Florida Bay. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of
the Florida east coast later today.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane
Warning for the following provinces of western Cuba...Pinar del Rio
...La Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Matanzas...and the Isle of
Youth.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Jamaica has discontinued
all warnings for Jamaica.
Hurricane center located near 19.7n 81.2w at 12/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm
present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 15 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 983 mb
eye diameter 15 nm
Max sustained winds 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt.
64 kt....... 20ne 15se 10sw 20nw.
50 kt....... 50ne 30se 10sw 40nw.
34 kt.......100ne 90se 30sw 75nw.
12 ft seas..180ne 110se 50sw 180nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 19.7n 81.2w at 12/1500z
at 12/1200z center was located near 19.2n 80.6w
forecast valid 13/0000z 21.6n 82.4w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 10sw 20nw.
50 kt... 50ne 30se 20sw 40nw.
34 kt...110ne 90se 30sw 80nw.
Forecast valid 13/1200z 24.6n 83.1w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 30se 15sw 25nw.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 25sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 100se 50sw 80nw.
Forecast valid 14/0000z 28.0n 82.8w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 30se 15sw 25nw.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 25sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 110se 60sw 80nw.
Forecast valid 14/1200z 32.2n 81.2w...inland
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 50sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 15/1200z 40.5n 76.0w...inland extratropical
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 0ne 100se 0sw 0nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 16/1200z 47.0n 66.0w...inland extratropical
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Outlook valid 17/1200z...absorbed by frontal system
request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 19.7n 81.2w
next advisory at 12/2100z
forecaster Stewart
Last edited by Brent on Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#neversummer
ROFL
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marciacubed
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