Ivan Advisories
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WeatherNLU
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 218
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Skywatch_NC
- Category 5
- Posts: 10949
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 9:31 pm
- Location: Raleigh, NC
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Thanks for your concern, guys but the outlook for Barbados seems to be getting better with each advisory. It now looks like Ivan's center will pass pretty far to our south.
Things looked a whole lot grimmer 24 hrs. ago when we had a Cat 4 bearing down on us! What a difference a day makes...
I'm not letting my guard down, though.
Things looked a whole lot grimmer 24 hrs. ago when we had a Cat 4 bearing down on us! What a difference a day makes...
I'm not letting my guard down, though.
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BTW, there hasn't been any significant weather to report. Earlier, there were a few light showers followed by heavier one (each accompanied by refreshing breezes) but all of that activity has finished for now.
The roads today were full of bumper-to-bumper traffic and there were long lines at supermarkets, hardware stores and service stations. Right now the roads are deserted. Earlier this evening, I heard many flights departing Grantley Adams Airport but there were no arrivals as it is due to be shut down shortly.
The roads today were full of bumper-to-bumper traffic and there were long lines at supermarkets, hardware stores and service stations. Right now the roads are deserted. Earlier this evening, I heard many flights departing Grantley Adams Airport but there were no arrivals as it is due to be shut down shortly.
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wx247
- S2K Supporter
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Keep us posted when you can and stay safe!!!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Windfall
Ivan-->Florida or Central America
matter how you look at it, it seems most probable that either Florida or Central America are going to be nailed with Ivan. Reasons?
1) If the high pressure system holds its ground, Ivan will probably continue west until slamming Central America/Yucatan.
2)If the high pressure weakens later, around Saturday, and Ivan moves into the GOM, a cold front and the impact of the residual moisture from the remnants of Frances will draw Ivan towards the west coast of Florida.
3)Another possibilty, which i'm banking on, is that if you take the time to observe the latest WATER VAPOR LOOP OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, notice all of the moisture from Frances stretching from the GOM into the central Atlantic, just south of Bermuda. Now, consider the forward speed of Ivan (about 20 mph). This means that Ivan will be impacted by this weakness in the ridge before the ridge has time to rebuild itself. Currently, in order for Ivan to be affected by the weakening in the ridge, it needs to move WNW to near Haiti (a higher latitude). Eventually, like most strong hurricanes and the Coriolis Effect, Ivan will take a WNW track until its just south of Hispaniola. At that moment, it will find the weakness in the ridge and move between a WNW and NW heading. This will most likely threaten Florida or maybe points northward. Like i have been saying over and over, Texas and Louisianna for the time being should not be too concerned.
Note:I am not a professional meterologist. Do not take offense to my ideas. I will admit that my forecast is influenced by 5 years of careful obsrvation of typical storm paths and weather influences. -removed- cannot be ruled out. However, I feel that Florida (or points northward) or Central America will take the brunt of the storm, putting aside Cuba and/or Hispaniola.
I hope to hear some comments soon...
1) If the high pressure system holds its ground, Ivan will probably continue west until slamming Central America/Yucatan.
2)If the high pressure weakens later, around Saturday, and Ivan moves into the GOM, a cold front and the impact of the residual moisture from the remnants of Frances will draw Ivan towards the west coast of Florida.
3)Another possibilty, which i'm banking on, is that if you take the time to observe the latest WATER VAPOR LOOP OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, notice all of the moisture from Frances stretching from the GOM into the central Atlantic, just south of Bermuda. Now, consider the forward speed of Ivan (about 20 mph). This means that Ivan will be impacted by this weakness in the ridge before the ridge has time to rebuild itself. Currently, in order for Ivan to be affected by the weakening in the ridge, it needs to move WNW to near Haiti (a higher latitude). Eventually, like most strong hurricanes and the Coriolis Effect, Ivan will take a WNW track until its just south of Hispaniola. At that moment, it will find the weakness in the ridge and move between a WNW and NW heading. This will most likely threaten Florida or maybe points northward. Like i have been saying over and over, Texas and Louisianna for the time being should not be too concerned.
Note:I am not a professional meterologist. Do not take offense to my ideas. I will admit that my forecast is influenced by 5 years of careful obsrvation of typical storm paths and weather influences. -removed- cannot be ruled out. However, I feel that Florida (or points northward) or Central America will take the brunt of the storm, putting aside Cuba and/or Hispaniola.
I hope to hear some comments soon...
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freeport_texas2005
- Tropical Depression
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