Charley Advisories

[HalloweenGale]

He just hit his teen years i think

[isobar]

I believe the last time Tampa has been hit is 1921.

You're right about that, and it was a cat 3 at landfall. Here's a brief article by Dick Fletcher a couple months ago about the Bay Area's hurricane "amnesia".

http://sptimes.com/2004/06/06/Hurricaneguide2004/Hurricane_amnesia_cou.shtml

[CaptinCrunch]

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WITH CHARLEY EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...THEN ACCELERATE...ALONG THE
SUNCOAST...THE THREAT OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM SURGE IN THE
STORM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS GREAT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE HIGHEST SURGE WILL OCCUR FROM THE COUNTIES NEAR TAMPA BAY SOUTH
TO LEE COUNTY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SPEED...AND INTENSITY
SUGGEST STORM SURGES IN SOME AREAS EQUALING OR EXCEEDING THOSE
EXPERIENCED IN HURRICANE DONNA IN 1960 WHICH MADE LANDFALL IN
SARASOTA COUNTY...OR MORE LIKELY THE 1921 HURRICANE WHICH MADE
LANDFALL IN NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY.

THE EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SURGE SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR
LATER TODAY. FOR NOW...ALL COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE RUSHING TO
COMPLETION ANY LAST MINUTE PREPARATIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

IN SHORT...A SURGE OF 10 OR MORE FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM JUST AFTER LANDFALL. FLOODING MAY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIME AND VALUE OF HIGH TIDES ON FRIDAY.

...RAINFALL...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ALL AREAS...THESE RAINS WILL
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS.
HOWEVER...IN AREAS NEAR TAMPA BAY WHERE SOME RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AND
ALL RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH...MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
DURING AND AFTER THE PASSAGE OF CHARLEY.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A RISK OF TORNADOES FROM THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF
CHARLEY...ESPECIALLY 50 MILES OR MORE AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. TORNADOES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

[Weatherboy1]

In the Orlando area, there could definitely be hurricane force winds or at least gusts. It truly depends on how strong Charley gets before and after passing over Cuba. And unfortunately, intensity forecasting is highly inaccurate so you don't know if this will surge to a 120 mph storm, stay a 90 mph one, or even weaken significantly before landfall. But I would brace for at least what I got here in Jupiter, FL during Irene in 1999. A few downed trees, power out for several hours, sheets of rain and wind, etc. Hopefully, it won't be any worse than that. I think our winds only got to about 45-50 mph because Irene was an 80 mph storm at landfall and it had to trek over land to get to us (similar to what would happen in Orlando)

[CaptinCrunch]

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WITH CHARLEY EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...THEN ACCELERATE...ALONG THE
SUNCOAST...THE THREAT OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM SURGE IN THE
STORM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS GREAT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE HIGHEST SURGE WILL OCCUR FROM THE COUNTIES NEAR TAMPA BAY SOUTH
TO LEE COUNTY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SPEED...AND INTENSITY
SUGGEST STORM SURGES IN SOME AREAS EQUALING OR EXCEEDING THOSE
EXPERIENCED IN HURRICANE DONNA IN 1960 WHICH MADE LANDFALL IN
SARASOTA COUNTY...OR MORE LIKELY THE 1921 HURRICANE WHICH MADE
LANDFALL IN NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY.

THE EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SURGE SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR
LATER TODAY. FOR NOW...ALL COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE RUSHING TO
COMPLETION ANY LAST MINUTE PREPARATIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

IN SHORT...A SURGE OF 10 OR MORE FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM JUST AFTER LANDFALL. FLOODING MAY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIME AND VALUE OF HIGH TIDES ON FRIDAY.

...RAINFALL...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ALL AREAS...THESE RAINS WILL
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS.
HOWEVER...IN AREAS NEAR TAMPA BAY WHERE SOME RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AND
ALL RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH...MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
DURING AND AFTER THE PASSAGE OF CHARLEY.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A RISK OF TORNADOES FROM THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF
CHARLEY...ESPECIALLY 50 MILES OR MORE AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. TORNADOES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

[Josephine96]

Thank you again for the post Captin

[flnative]

Just a little history from someone who lived in Tampa and is a 5th generation Floridian- they really do not believe that it will hit them. The natives have seen too many misses of storms that were predicted to hit. I was told that the sailors have for decades said that there is something about the sea currents in the Gulf that make a direct hit virtually impossible. I pass this on not because I believe it but as an item of interest. The transplants from the north just don't get it- kind of like they are at voting. Many of the poorest people live in the most dangerous areas. They will have a hard time getting out.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Told everyone this earlier! Don't be surprised to se Ft meyers back on the target list!

[donsutherland1]

Weatherluvr,

I believe the ETA's track of the center is a little too far to the east. I favor a compromise track between that of the GFDL and GFS and expect Charley to remain just inland after landfall. However, this is still a very close call and it could pass briefly over the Atlantic for a second landfall.

[Brent]

[jaysonx]

hahaha

0wn3d!

[Steve H.]

I concur!!! He is intensifying rapidly and moving closer to NNW at the present time. I believe some decisions will have to be made quickly, and they would involve almost the whole peninsula out to Tallahassee.

[MWatkins]

Latest satellite imagery (1615Z or 1215PM) shows a very tight eye.

MW

[OtherHD]

Fox News: We Report, You Correct

[snoopj]

I don't normally post too much in the tropical forum, but I've seen the evacuation map that Tampa has. If 20ft surge is possible, yikes. The map had with Cat. 3 strength, that about 5-10 miles inland, ALL ALONG THE CITY, were to be evacuated. That's all the way from the I-275/I-75 interchange, down to Macdill and farther S. I was down in Tampa quite a bit for work purposes for a good part of one summer and where I was at (Temple Terrance, near the U of South Florida campus) was just about borderline for needing to be evacuated in the event of a Category 5. And the evacuation order was listed as possible flooding.

Either way, a strong hurricane in Tampa = chaos. Complacentcy may be some undoing there should this not "near miss" like previous storms.

--snoopj

[Dan]

From the satellite pictures that I'm looking at I still see a NW movement. IF it contunues, the center should go over that small island and then across the western most portion of Cuba, that is if the NW movement contunues for say the next 6-8 hours.

[Scott_inVA]

n/t

[Josephine96]

Took them long enough

[Skywatch_NC]

Well, I'll be a monkey's uncle...looks like he's headin' for us Ma...yep Pa we'd better evacuate!

Eric

[Brent]

The CITY of Tampa? Is mandatory? Someone just said in another thread they were waiting.