ilmc172pilot wrote:admiral....there be whales here...love that one......sadly.......This beast looks NC bound
We will see... still alot of time to track this...
Ivan Advisories
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TWC... IVAN Eyewall features from vortex msg
Don't know if anyone saw it just now, but on TWC...
They mentioned a new vortex msg that reported very frequent lightning and large hail in the eye wall. TWC said that this was very rare! Ivan sure is a beast!
Anyone have any info on this?
-Eric
They mentioned a new vortex msg that reported very frequent lightning and large hail in the eye wall. TWC said that this was very rare! Ivan sure is a beast!
Anyone have any info on this?
-Eric
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yoda wrote:So just asking here.. curious... what about the EC of FLA? Any threat there?
IF your talking about a track similar to what the GFS has been spinning for the past few runs, no. if your talking about a threat to the east coast of FL with respect to Ivan crossing the state such as Charley--yes that could be possible depending on the exact track.
Furthermore, I don’t see much to weaken Ivan other than the interaction it may have for a short time w/ Cuba, and processes within the system it's self such as ERCs (eyewall replacement cycles) that are common for intense hurricanes. SSTs are extremely warm in that region north of Cuba in the SE gulf---over 30C in the means for the past 7 days.
This should provide Ivan w/ more than sufficient latent heat to maintain it's intensity.
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Fego
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Jamaica vs Ivan: think they r ready
The Observer
BARRING an 11th hour shift in its direction, Hurricane Ivan, having already wreaked havoc in the southern Caribbean, was on course to hit Jamaica with a thumping blow by tomorrow and forecasters warned that its impact could be more ferocious than Gilbert 16 years ago.
Gilbert left several people dead and over US$600 million in damage when it struck Jamaica on September 12, 1988.
"In terms of the strength it (Ivan) is more intense than Gilbert when it hit us," said Evan Thompson, head of the weather branch of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica.
"Gilbert was a category three when it hit us, then became a category four and then a category five when it left us," Thompson said. "This system is already a category four and could develop into a category five before it hits us."
At 4:00 pm yesterday, Ivan was 650 miles east south-east of Jamaica's westerly tip, travelling in a west north-westerly direction at a healthy clip of 17 1/2 miles an hour - speed that would have it bearing onto Jamaica by early tomorrow.
"By Friday morning, the centre is predicted to be off Jamaica's south coast, preparing to make its way across the island," the Meteorological Office said last night.
BARRING an 11th hour shift in its direction, Hurricane Ivan, having already wreaked havoc in the southern Caribbean, was on course to hit Jamaica with a thumping blow by tomorrow and forecasters warned that its impact could be more ferocious than Gilbert 16 years ago.
Gilbert left several people dead and over US$600 million in damage when it struck Jamaica on September 12, 1988.
"In terms of the strength it (Ivan) is more intense than Gilbert when it hit us," said Evan Thompson, head of the weather branch of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica.
"Gilbert was a category three when it hit us, then became a category four and then a category five when it left us," Thompson said. "This system is already a category four and could develop into a category five before it hits us."
At 4:00 pm yesterday, Ivan was 650 miles east south-east of Jamaica's westerly tip, travelling in a west north-westerly direction at a healthy clip of 17 1/2 miles an hour - speed that would have it bearing onto Jamaica by early tomorrow.
"By Friday morning, the centre is predicted to be off Jamaica's south coast, preparing to make its way across the island," the Meteorological Office said last night.
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Fego
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I ca't believe this.. read read read!!!!
Meteorologists threaten to strike
HORACE HINES, Observer staff reporter
Thursday, September 09, 2004
AS the country prepares for Hurricane Ivan, meteorologists and meteorological technicians at both international airports and the Coopers Hill weather station have threatened to strike, sparking fears that the island may be left without vital information when the category four storm hits.
"The workers are determined to embark on a path of direct confrontation with the Ministry of Land and Environment and the management of the Met Office if outstanding allowances for the month of February for workers who took industrial action is not paid forthwith," said a release from general secretary of the Union of Technical, Administrative and Supervisory Personnel (UTASP) St Patrice Ennis.
"The union will not accept responsibility for any actions taken by the workers, particularly in light of the approaching hurricane Ivan," said Ennis. "In other words, we cannot guarantee normalcy at the Met Office for the ensuing days."
Yesterday, land and environment minister Dean Peart blasted the union and employees, saying they were trying to put pressure on him but he was unable to help.
He said he had referred the matter to the Ministry of Labour which had, in turn, sought advice from the Attorney General.
"They were hoping to get (the advice from the labour ministry) this week but they have not gotten it but they are going to try their best to see if they can get it by this weekend," he said. "I cannot act. I have to be advised by the Ministry of Labour."
The impasse has stemmed from three days of industrial action taken by some meteorologists in February as they pushed for wage parity with other government-paid scientific officers. The sick-out ran into the weekend.
According to one of the workers who refused to supply his name, some employees who had the weekend off were called in to work to fill the gap left by those who had taken industrial action. These workers refused to work on their rostered weekend off.
"Some said they had other plans and some claimed that they were sick," he said.
The Met Office management subsequently advised the workers who had refused to work to apply for sick leave, the employee maintained, and they were not paid allowances for those days.
Yesterday, Ennis also claimed that a chief UTASP delegate who was "relieved of his acting position as section head of the National Meteorological Centre" had been victimised.
But according to Minister Peart, the employee in question was merely acting at the Norman Manley International Airport and another worker was given the opportunity to fill the post when the vacancy recurred.
HORACE HINES, Observer staff reporter
Thursday, September 09, 2004
AS the country prepares for Hurricane Ivan, meteorologists and meteorological technicians at both international airports and the Coopers Hill weather station have threatened to strike, sparking fears that the island may be left without vital information when the category four storm hits.
"The workers are determined to embark on a path of direct confrontation with the Ministry of Land and Environment and the management of the Met Office if outstanding allowances for the month of February for workers who took industrial action is not paid forthwith," said a release from general secretary of the Union of Technical, Administrative and Supervisory Personnel (UTASP) St Patrice Ennis.
"The union will not accept responsibility for any actions taken by the workers, particularly in light of the approaching hurricane Ivan," said Ennis. "In other words, we cannot guarantee normalcy at the Met Office for the ensuing days."
Yesterday, land and environment minister Dean Peart blasted the union and employees, saying they were trying to put pressure on him but he was unable to help.
He said he had referred the matter to the Ministry of Labour which had, in turn, sought advice from the Attorney General.
"They were hoping to get (the advice from the labour ministry) this week but they have not gotten it but they are going to try their best to see if they can get it by this weekend," he said. "I cannot act. I have to be advised by the Ministry of Labour."
The impasse has stemmed from three days of industrial action taken by some meteorologists in February as they pushed for wage parity with other government-paid scientific officers. The sick-out ran into the weekend.
According to one of the workers who refused to supply his name, some employees who had the weekend off were called in to work to fill the gap left by those who had taken industrial action. These workers refused to work on their rostered weekend off.
"Some said they had other plans and some claimed that they were sick," he said.
The Met Office management subsequently advised the workers who had refused to work to apply for sick leave, the employee maintained, and they were not paid allowances for those days.
Yesterday, Ennis also claimed that a chief UTASP delegate who was "relieved of his acting position as section head of the National Meteorological Centre" had been victimised.
But according to Minister Peart, the employee in question was merely acting at the Norman Manley International Airport and another worker was given the opportunity to fill the post when the vacancy recurred.
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ColdFront77
Re: I ca't believe this.. read read read!!!!
Fego wrote:Meteorologists threaten to strike
HORACE HINES, Observer staff reporter
Thursday, September 09, 2004
I would personally view this as a criminal act, under the circumstances.
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PurdueWx80
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Re: TWC... IVAN Eyewall features from vortex msg
ericinmia wrote:Don't know if anyone saw it just now, but on TWC...
They mentioned a new vortex msg that reported very frequent lightning and large hail in the eye wall. TWC said that this was very rare! Ivan sure is a beast!
Anyone have any info on this?
-Eric
yes, that is a VERY RARE situation, and is a GREAT indicator of RAPID deepening in a hurricane, which we have seen.
the environemnt around the eyewall is symmertrically Neutral and usually void of lightning or hail, which one would assoiate with instability driven convection, so the development of the stronger convective updrafts capible of producing the Hail and creating the lightning in all likelihood indicate that the symmetrically neutral environemnt has been distutrbed around the eyewall and the hurricane is about to undergo rapid intensification, or in the case of Ivan--already has.
great question thouugh.
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PurdueWx80 wrote:Lightning in the eye = dry air has somehow mixed in there. I can't believe w/ lightning and hail AND "COLD" WATER that this is a Cat 5. As soon as he gets over the NW Carib...provided similar outflow, moisture and low-shear...this storm will get to 900 mb.
Where's that vomit icon when you need it?
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Ground_Zero_92
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