Bonnie Advisories

[Hyperstorm]

I knew it was too early to write this off...

Definitely!

[Hyperstorm]

Bonnie has definitely made up for lost time this morning...

The system is looking the best it's been since it was a wave and shear has let up quite a bit. There is still some shear leaving the center on the NW side of the convection, but not much to prevent strengthening. This could become a hurricane as I said yesterday. It also has grown in size this morning which will likely mean that it will affect a larger portion of the Florida coast with squally weather.

[Dean4Storms]

Me too, I find it hard to believe that some did not recognize the potential with Bonnie (some calling themselves Prof. Meteorologists, LOL!). She did just as I posted yesterday, got above 25n and boom overnight. I still think she reaches hurricane status before landfall.

[HurricaneGirl]

Yup!!

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 13a


Statement as of 7:00 am CDT on August 11, 2004



...Bonnie strengthens as it moves slowly north...a turn to the
northeast expected later today...

a tropical storm watch remains in effect for northwest Florida from
the Alabama/Florida border eastward to the mouth of the Suwanee
River.
Warnings will likely be required later today for portions of the
watch area.

At 7 am CDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 25.7 north...longitude 90.5 west or about
265 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Bonnie is moving toward the north near 6 mph. A turn to the
northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
later today.

Maximum sustained winds recently reported by an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft were near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.

Repeating the 7 am CDT position...25.7 N... 90.5 W. Movement
toward...north near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 10 am CDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[Hyperstorm]

Hmmm...not surprising at all. The system is still deepening people. We could be looking at a Barry-type system at the very least, heading toward the Florida panhandle.

[tailgater]

Latest sat. pics show an eye popping out

[Matthew5]

Holy $#%$E

[Hyperstorm]

This is the image you're referring to: I wouldn't call that an eye. Yes, it does look like one and is impressive, but the center of circulation is farther NW. That's NOT the center of circulation. That is a SPURT of deep convection which usually means rapid development to follow.

[Brent]

WOW! Is this the same storm that looked dead last night?



Nice.

[Dean4Storms]

I think it is funny in this way, all the folks who made fun of her appearance yesterday, just like a woman she threw on the make-up and looks as impressive as Charley this AM!!

LOL!!!!!!

[cycloneye]

Yes Brent you may remember that it had a little thunderstorm cluster but look now.

[Dean4Storms]

WOW! Is this the same storm that looked dead last night?



Nice.

Yup, that is what no shear, 90 degree SST's will get ya, why folks were doubting it still makes me wonder.

[tailgater]

I'm gonna call it an EYE anyway because I'm not as sure as you are of her postion

[Aquawind]

Woahh..bummer

[FlSteel]

That is what you call a burst of convection

[frankthetank]

Is this the 90F water at work here? I am really impressed with the growth Bonnie has sustained since last night. Those people that suggested that Bonnie was not down seem to be right on as of this moment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

90f water is like hurricane crack!

[Guest]

strongly agree....

Bonnie has definitely made up for lost time this morning...

The system is looking the best it's been since it was a wave and shear has let up quite a bit. There is still some shear leaving the center on the NW side of the convection, but not much to prevent strengthening. This could become a hurricane as I said yesterday. It also has grown in size this morning which will likely mean that it will affect a larger portion of the Florida coast with squally weather.

[BEER980]

Yea that distance is about right Lowpressure. I am about 40 miles east of Crystal River. I am about 29N 82W

[Brent]

John Neese on TWC just said a buoy very close to the center of Bonnie is reporting 47 mph sustained winds with gusts over 50(he said the number but I wasn't paying attention). Look for at least a slight increase in winds on the next advisory.