Charley Advisories

[The Dark Knight]

I am hoping for south of Tampa.... To put it very bluntly, Cape Cod is due....For a storm that is....

[Tommedic]

Looking at latest pics, does it appear that the turn was a few degrees prior to projected turn, or is it my imagination? If so, what would this do to projected path and impact on South Florida, and east coast of GA/SC/NC. Maybe nothing but I was wondering what some of the experts on the board think.

[Janie34]

According to Ed Lavendera of CNN, most people in that area say they think it will miss them and aren't taking appropriate precautions.

They are making a huge mistake. They have no guarantee whatsoever that Charley won't make a direct strike. Even a near miss would cause a great amount of damage.

Jennifer, I hope your grandmother takes all precautions and stays safe. I hope she decides to do this soon, because there isn't much time left.

[Brent]

Best case would be a landfall south of Naples in the Everglades and then it just sits and dies. Not going to happen, but that's the best case.

[cycloneye]

12/1740 UTC 20.4N 81.5W T5.0/5.0 CHARLEY -- Atlantic Ocean

5.0 means 90 kts winds.

[Valkhorn]

Brent, we should be so lucky.

However with this mammoth trough it's really going to start booking it when it accellerates north across Florida.

[Nimbus]

Best case scenario anywhere near the NHC projection is a continuation of its current track up into the trough where it would get sheared to pieces. Unfortunately north of 20 degrees storms start to recurve without environmental steering.

[wxcsi]

All you did was prove me right.... TPC did shifts its track to west central Fl... Like I suggested YESTERDAY.


I was 100% right and you were not . :moon2:

If I knew asking questions would result in a moderator requesting that we move on, I would have not asked the questions in the first place.

Think about it before you make assumptions such as this. The response was made wrt you and DT starting to fight about anything except the original subject which was where could Charley go. There is not a moderator on this site that will say that just because you asked a question. Did you notice the thread came back on subject after the bickering stopped? We always ENCOURAGE questions being asked as long as they pertain to the subject matter at hand and not you said/I said about something other than the original subject.

Nonsense!

I asked questions pertaining to the original topic and stuck to those questions. Although the original poster called me a liar, I still continued to stick to the original topic.

As this site continues to gain in popularity (which it will...it is very well done)...you will find more and more professionals lurking. Perhaps even some from NHC. And maybe now and then, some of these professionals will ask legitimate questions that just may just cause defensive responses from some.

M

Out of respect for the moderators, this incredible website and other posters, I will let this die. NHC has done a marvelous job. Not sure where I proved you right. There's a difference between a modelologist and meteorologist. You have a history of revisionism.

One thing is for sure, thank goodness the NHC forecasters on duty yesterday didn't get too concerned when they saw the horrible solution from ECMWF. As I wrote yesterday and as was written by NHC last night, any small deviation to a cyclone track when approaching on an oblique will lead to significant changes on who gets hit. NHC is still right of the latest guidance and probably will not deviate much at 5pm based on latest Satellite trends. I think you felt they were making a big mistake that they were not west of 82.5...let's see where it goes.

More importantly, hopefully people are taking this storm seriously. I have a very terrible feeling that a dangerous hurricane will hit a populated area. Personally, I hope the storm does go well west to the Panhandle...which would almost ensure significant weakening. However, analysis of the ridge centered just north of the Bahamas and how the models evolve the pattern with the amplifying trough, makes me think that the storm will hit while still very strong.

I am very suspicious of the very far west track of the GFDL farther north as it heads up the Eastern US.


M

[wxcsi]

All you did was prove me right.... TPC did shifts its track to west central Fl... Like I suggested YESTERDAY.


I was 100% right and you were not . :moon2:

If I knew asking questions would result in a moderator requesting that we move on, I would have not asked the questions in the first place.

Think about it before you make assumptions such as this. The response was made wrt you and DT starting to fight about anything except the original subject which was where could Charley go. There is not a moderator on this site that will say that just because you asked a question. Did you notice the thread came back on subject after the bickering stopped? We always ENCOURAGE questions being asked as long as they pertain to the subject matter at hand and not you said/I said about something other than the original subject.

Nonsense!

I asked questions pertaining to the original topic and stuck to those questions. Although the original poster called me a liar, I still continued to stick to the original topic.

As this site continues to gain in popularity (which it will...it is very well done)...you will find more and more professionals lurking. Perhaps even some from NHC. And maybe now and then, some of these professionals will ask legitimate questions that just may just cause defensive responses from some.

M

Out of respect for the moderators, this incredible website and other posters, I will let this die. NHC has done a marvelous job. Not sure where I proved you right. There's a difference between a modelologist and meteorologist. You have a history of revisionism.

One thing is for sure, thank goodness the NHC forecasters on duty yesterday didn't get too concerned when they saw the horrible solution from ECMWF. As I wrote yesterday and as was written by NHC last night, any small deviation to a cyclone track when approaching on an oblique will lead to significant changes on who gets hit. NHC is still right of the latest guidance and probably will not deviate much at 5pm based on latest Satellite trends. I think you felt they were making a big mistake that they were not west of 82.5...let's see where it goes.

More importantly, hopefully people are taking this storm seriously. I have a very terrible feeling that a dangerous hurricane will hit a populated area. Personally, I hope the storm does go well west to the Panhandle...which would almost ensure significant weakening. However, analysis of the ridge centered just north of the Bahamas and how the models evolve the pattern with the amplifying trough, makes me think that the storm will hit while still very strong.

I am very suspicious of the very far west track of the GFDL farther north as it heads up the Eastern US.


M

[MGC]

Crimy people, I just stated on opinion just like everyone else on this board does and now some of you are demanding that I change the title of my post. I for one enjoy this board and the oppertunity for all of us to express our opinions, learn a little and try our hand at tropical cyclone forecasting. Every one of us that have posted on this board have had our good calls and not so good calls. If I were in the path of Charlie I would only consider the opinion of the NHC and or other qualified professional mets. I still think Charlie will hit between Sarasota and Ft. Myers. If Charlie hit near Sarasota then the Tampa Bay area will certainly receive hurricane force winds. I for one am not discounting the potential for loss of life. This is indeed a very serious situation. Please if you live on the west coast of Florida you had better be getting ready for a major hurricane. Save yourself.....MGC

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl032004forecast.html


I am going to be sleeping soon (just got home from briefing RSMAS regarding the storm's threat to Miami), so I will not be posting everytime a new nwhhc update is made (someone else can if they want to)

[MGC]

Sure looks to be on a NNW heading now. This only increases the risk to Key West, Sanibel and Ft Myers.......MGC

[Stephanie]

That's why I didn't go ahead and change your title in the first place.

We have alot of panicky people now and some may read too much into an "analysis" or "opinion" and take it for gospel.

[Brent]

I agree pretty well with that. I think a solid Cat 3 is a safe bet, but it could still go stronger.

[Weatherboy1]

The models have trended west today, there's no denying it. But what about those "lying eyes" -- what we can see on satellite. It looks to me that Charley has moved more NNW and is roughly around 20.9N 81.8W. At 11 a.m., the forecast position for 12 hours out was 21.6N 82.4W. Charley could still get there if he jogs WNW or NW soon. But it seems to me the trend this afternoon has been a BIT right of forecast. We'll have to see if this continues, but I thought I'd at least point it out.

[Stephanie]

I hope everyone has left the Keys and Sanibel/Captiva.

[bahamaswx]

Has been going NNW for a couple hours.

[NorthGaWeather]

Its going NW. Wobble to the North earlier.

[BonesXL]

I agree, It's been jogging NNW and at times maybe even N.

[Nimbus]

Been headed just east of the isle of youth for 6 hours now.