Bonnie Advisories

[yoda]

I know. But SHIPS (although aggressive) has it at 80 kts.

However, lets check the models.

LBAR is on crack IMO. At this time, there is no reason why Bonnie should bounce south, then north, then south again. A98E can be thrown away as well. The UKMET presents an interesting scenario though. As for now, I will take the consensus of the BAMM, BAMD, and the GFDFL. Wait a minute... the UKMET? That looks like it takes it up to the NC/VA region!

[cycloneye]

The 8:05 discussion from TPC:

A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 700 NM E OF BARBADOS NEAR
12N47W...ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...MOVING WNW 15 KT. THE LOW HAS A
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND GOOD OUTFLOW PRIMARILY TO
THE N OF THE SYSTEM. DISORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS ARE NEAR AND TO
THE NW OF THE CENTER WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 47W-51W...AND FARTHER SW ALONG THE ITCZ.
THE AREA BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS
CURRENTLY HAS LOW VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES...GENERALLY BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KTS...AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BEGIN TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS WED NIGHT AND THU.

[MWatkins]

There's a little bit of flattening out in front of 91l. Although there is little doubt that this is a TD by now...it may be running into some shear as evidenced by the straight line appearance fron sw to ne out ahead of the system in latest imagery.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

However...there is plenty of moisture in the circulation envelope...50/50 on an upgrade this evening.

MW

[yoda]

Hey Luis, seen the new model runs yet?

http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php

(I can't post images, sorry! )


And wait a minute? The UKMET is also intializing?

[Rainband]

Thanks Mike

[HURAKAN]

[Suncat]

The real headache for the section of the Outer Banks near Morehead City is going to be beach erosion. The folks out there have spent a lot of money to repair the loss of the beaches from the previous storms and it looks Alex may take a good deal of that sand and return it to the ocean. There is not much beach front to begin with and very few protective dunes or forests left, so any erosion of the beach is going to imperil the houses closest to the ocean if they are hit with another storm this summer.

And that is begining to look like a good possibility!

[Matthew5]

I agree Mw! I think the shear will not harm it to bad.

[yoda]

Interesting map there Hurukan. I have a sneaky feeling that Alex is a precursor to what Bonnie may soon bring...

[MGC]

Doubt the NHC upgrades until convection congeals near circulation center.....MGC

[yoda]

Doubt the NHC upgrades until convection congeals near circulation center.....MGC

That would be tomorrow!

[Hurricanehink]

The storm looks very well organized, and it will probably upgraded tomorrow at 5 (not saying A.M. or P.M. just 5 ). Just a feeling... At least it has slowed down a lot. Moving at 15 M.P.H. is suitable for development, not 30...

[Stormsfury]

Doubt the NHC upgrades until convection congeals near circulation center.....MGC

I have to agree on this ...

1) 91L isn't an immediate threat like Alex ... Alex was much closer to the coast, and although I feel that NHC jumped the gun a bit early with the upgrade, I did feel that the storm would become a storm ... just a little surprised how healthy it looked today ...

2) Also referring to the above, the convection trends ... persistence, and organization are key.

SF

[USAwx1]

There's a little bit of flattening out in front of 91l. Although there is little doubt that this is a TD by now...it may be running into some shear as evidenced by the straight line appearance fron sw to ne out ahead of the system in latest imagery.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

However...there is plenty of moisture in the circulation envelope...50/50 on an upgrade this evening.

MW

There isn't much shear over the system right now both in the mid or upper levels, and the 24-hr change has been about 0.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

There also appears to be a weak upper level anticyclone INVOF 91L which you can see on the 18z GFS analysis:

[Aquawind]

Yep, Convection popping out front along the ITCZ just feeding the moisture into the path..light verticle shear and Just look at the loops and it's gonna be a player..it's just entering warmer waters as well..

Floater 2

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml


Heck with what happened overnight last night.. The visable is gonna be in my first 5 mouse clicks in the morning..

[ncweatherwizard]

I know the NHC hasn't "officially" upgraded, but I really don't care either--if it's a depression--it's a depression.

Bit of uncertainty after 72 hours...have it near PR near 120 hours actually...but don't get too hyped up get...if anything...I'm too far to the right here...and may easily be too generous with intensification.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... 4/two.html

[Matthew5]

Good job NC! Very nice forecast

[Brent]

too far right with the track(meaning too far north?)

Too GENEROUS with intensification?

Yikes.

[ncweatherwizard]

too far right with the track(meaning too far north?)

Too GENEROUS with intensification?

Yikes.

Too generous meaning that I might have intensified it too much.

[MWatkins]

There's a little bit of flattening out in front of 91l. Although there is little doubt that this is a TD by now...it may be running into some shear as evidenced by the straight line appearance fron sw to ne out ahead of the system in latest imagery.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

However...there is plenty of moisture in the circulation envelope...50/50 on an upgrade this evening.

MW

There isn't much shear over the system right now both in the mid or upper levels, and the 24-hr change has been about 0.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

There also appears to be a weak upper level anticyclone INVOF 91L which you can see on the 18z GFS analysis:

We were just looking at this...looks like the upper trough is digging south a bit and this may help the ridge. Agreed that the shear directly over the system is light...it just looks like the outflow is running into a little standup to the NW...but nothing to terrible.

MW