Ivan Advisories

[southerngale]

I was going to suggest you change the title and I see you just did. Thanks, that's better.

[ericinmia]

No need to defend yourself, or act smart.
I am simply getting tired of the many outlandish posts with no factualy derived, or reasoned background supporting your theory.

I wouldn't have a problem in the world with you posting ivan was going to the moon, as long as you had some sort of reasonable idea, or data backing your thought and theory.
-Eric

[yankeelmbb]

Let's all prepare for the worst and pray for the best......panic is useless.....just prepare (easier said than done when you can't get gasoline or milk or anything else yet on the east coast here)

[CourierPR]

We've all been CONED again.

[BReb]

" as long as you had some sort of reasonable idea, or data backing your thought and theory."

I do- as of bedtime I the ridge was weakening above Ivan, thus setting the stage for a potential northward turn, but there was still the pesky fact that Ivan was moving due west as of bedtime. Now I wake up and find a NW course and that dramatically increases the chances that Ivan will miss the US, in my opinion.

[ColinD]

our pal Stewart could have a feminine first name.

Like Hurricanes of old.

[yankeelmbb]

ahhhhh a new nickname for floridians....CONEHEADS

[Guest]

I am seeing alot of people starting to jump on the FL bandwagon again. Well S.FL anyways.

Let me begin by saying that yesterday most of the Cane models (and a few others)had Ivan crossing 67 West Longitude line at 15 degrees North by Tonight at 8 PM and already he is at 70west and has still yet to reach 15north? Some may say "Yeah big deal" Well to be honest it is a big deal especially considering the forecasted track by the nhc and alot of the models. We all know what a few miles difference makes (west or east) where FL is concerned. Plus one must remember ( i meantioned this last week with Francis for those who thought she would take a hard right and go into the NC/SC/GA coast) that with canes of this size it takes a bit longer for them to make the turn. Only exception would be ofcourse would be another large system to come and give him a boot which right now isnt to be seen.
And as well with the models they are still seeing (past 36hrs ) Francis weakness she left behind thanks in part to the data fed into them yesterday and last night which as already seen that weakness is slowly but surely headed out.
Then ofcourse we have WV imagery which if anyone is watching it will see what is moving in the general direction of FL from the ene out in the Atlantic (hmmm)and they would see as well a system approaching the NW US which is believed to dig out a trough in the western US which in turn as most know would help to further strengthen the ridge back east which as well we all know canes dont just go thru ridges.
So its my honest opinion that with everything i have said i am really doubting a S.FL hit with this cane and i am more leaning on a Gulfcoast hit somewhere between se LA on over to the FL Panhandle. Only way my opinion will change will be if i see something drastic happen in the atmosphere within the next 24hrs or so.

This by no means either to let your guard down if your living anywhere in S.FL . And the same goes for anyone else that could be dealing with this dangerous cat5 cane.

[Cyclone Runner]

This article is from Globovision TV out of Caracas. It is in Spanish but is a good overview of the situation there. There is one person dead in Naiguata, Vargas State and 1 mssing in Playa Verde. Much of the damage is in the States of Vargas, Carabobo, Nueva Esparta and Sucre in the Northeast.

Un fallecido deja paso de Iván por Vargas

Un fallecido es el saldo del paso del huracán Iván por el estado Vargas. Se trata de Danny Saavedra, residente de Naiguatá, quien se encontraba cuidando un kiosko a orillas de playa Los Cocos. El fuerte oleaje en la zona arrasó estos kioskos en uno de los cuales estaba Saavedra. Aunque fue rescatado por las autoridades y llegó con vida al seguro social falleció posteriormente.

También se conoció de una persona desaparecida en las adyacencias de Playa Verde.

Es que tras dejar atrás Nueva Esparta y Sucre, este miércoles el huracán Iván afectó los estados Vargas y Carabobo.

En Vargas el viento y el oleaje destruyeron kioskos a orillas del mar, provocaron el hundimiento de casi una docena de embarcaciones y numerosos daños físicos. Seis surfistas tuvieron que ser rescatados de las aguas. El gobernador de Vargas Antonio Rodríguez San Juan informó que todos los balenarios fueron cerrados e hizo un llamado a los surfistas para que se abstuvieran de ir a las playas.

Debido a la fuerza de los vientos del huracán fueron arrancados avisos, vallas, árboles, etc. y también numerosas viviendas fueron afectadas por estar construidas con material liviano.

Al mediodía de este miércoles se reanudaron las actividades en el Aeropuerto Internacional de Maiquetía.

Mientras en el estado Carabobo, las lluvias comenzaron a azotar desde el mediodía. En las cercanías de Puerto Cabello se reportaron 4 viviendas colapsadas, 17 familias afectadas y más de 50 casas inundadas. La carretera hacia Patanemo perdió la capa asfáltica por la fuerza de las aguas y Defensa Civil realiza un puente terrestre hacia la población.

En el Zulia, la capitanía de puertos cerró el canal de navegación del Lago de Maracaibo.

El paso por Nueva Esparta y Sucre

En Margarita el coletazo de Iván dejó cerca de 100 personas desalojadas de sus casas, cerca de 10 viviendas afectadas, cuatro heridos y daños en embarcaciones menores.

A su paso por Margarita la tarde de este martes y la madrugada del miércoles, el espiral de Iván se hizo sentir con fuertes y moderadas lluvias, olas de dos a cuatro metros y ráfagas de vientos que dañaron techos de viviendas y que amenazaron diversas localidades de la región.

Como medida preventiva se ordenó el desalojo de la población de "Valle Encantado", en el municipio Mariño, por considerar que el fuerte oleaje amenazaba la vida de los habitantes de este lugar. Alrededor de 80 personas fueron reubicadas  mientras pasa el peligro y se ordena el regreso a sus viviendas.

En "Vicente Marcano", otra población del municipio Mariño, unas seis viviendas perdieron los techos, mientras en " La Caracola " unos 16 ciudadanos tuvieron que ser llevadas a resguardo y al menos cuatro personas resultaron heridas, una de ellas de gravedad.

Por ahora, el alerta preventivo y las medidas de control se mantendrán, hasta que pueda declararse totalmente fuera de peligro la isla.

También se mantendrá el alerta en el estado Sucre donde el paso de Iván dejó algunas pérdidas materiales como la pérdida de 3 embarcaciones e inundaciones en varias barriadas. 3 municipios quedaron sin energía eléctrica y se mantienen suspendidos los vuelos y la prohibición para embarcaciones pequeñas de salir a navegar.

Ramón Martínez, gobernador del estado Sucre, informó que aunque el peligro tiende a alejarse el alerta se mantendrá hasta que los informes meteorológicos garanticen que hay seguridad para los ciudadanos.

Globovisión/EFR/MGC
08/09/04

[southerngale]

It sounds like he was still half asleep and made the title/post without giving it much thought. He has changed the topic title. Why don't we just drop it.

And please everyone...emotions are running high with another threatening situation. Let's try and lose the attitude and show a little respect to each other. Thanks

[yoda]

No comphrende espanol! Moy mal!

(I don't understand Spanish! Very bad!)

[ericinmia]

only problem with that is... it tells you why Ivan might be heading NW as of now, not how long, or to what degree he will be heading in the future. That is where the forecast data needs to be to support a turn away from the CONUS.

I am not trying to berate or degrade you, i appreciate everyone's input. I am hoping that you will evaluate things more in the future, and post more organized/backed thoughts.

I'm off to bed...

Godd night all.
-Eric

[southerngale]

I did a translation at http://babelfish.altavista.com/

It's not perfect but here it is:

A deceased opens the way of Iván by Vargas A deceased is the balance of the passage of the Iván hurricane by the state Vargas. One is Danny Saavedra, resident of Naiguatá, that was taking care of kiosko to beach borders the Coconuts. The strong surge in the zone devastated these kioskos in one of which it was Saavedra. Although it was rescued by the authorities and it arrived with life at the social insurance passed away later. Also it was known a disappeared person in the adyacencias of Green Beach. It is that after leaving New Esparta and Sucre back, this Wednesday the Iván hurricane affected the states Vargas and Carabobo. In Vargas the wind and the surge destroyed kioskos to borders of the sea, caused the collapse of almost one dozen of boats and numerous physical damages. Six surfistas had to be rescued of waters. The governor of Vargas Antonio Rodriguez San Juan informed that all the balenarios were closed and made a call to the surfistas so that they abstained to go to beaches. Due to the wind force of the hurricane warnings, fences, trees, etc. were taken and also numerous houses were affected to be constructed with light material. At noon of this Wednesday the activities in the Airport were started again the International of Maiquetía. While in the Carabobo state, rains began to whip from the noon. In the neighborhoods of Port Hair 4 colapsadas houses, 17 affected and than 50 houses more flooded families were reported. The highway towards Patanemo lost the asphalt layer by the force of waters and Civil defense makes a terrestrial bridge towards the population. In Zulia, the harbor authorities closed the ship canal of the Lake of Maracaibo. The passage by New Esparta and Sucre In Daisy coletazo of Iván left near 100 homeless people of its houses, near 10 affected houses, four hurt and damages in shallow-draft vessels. To its passage by Daisy afternoon of this Tuesday and the dawn of Wednesday, the spiral of Iván was made feel with forts and moderate rains, waves of two to four meters and gusts of winds that damaged ceilings of houses and that threatened diverse localities of the region. As preventive measure ordered the evacuation of the population of "Valle Encantado", in the Mariño municipality, to consider that the strong surge threatened the life of the inhabitants of this place. Around 80 people they were relocated while it passes the danger and the return to its houses is ordered. In "Vicente Marcano", another population of the Mariño municipality, six houses lost the ceilings, while in " The Conch " about 16 citizens had to be taken to defense and at least four people were wounds, one of them of gravity. So far, the preventive alert and the measures of control will stay, until the island can be declared totally outside danger. Also the alert in the Sucre state will stay where the passage of Iván left to some material losses like the loss of 3 boats and floods in several quarters. 3 municipalities were without electrical energy and they stay suspended to the flights and the prohibition for shallow-draft vessels to leave to sail. Ramon Martinez, governor of the Sucre state, informed that although the danger tends to move away the alert will stay until the weather reports guarantee that there is security for the citizens. Globovisión/EFR/MGC 08/09/04

[yoda]

I get the gist of it.. but it still doesn't make sense in some parts...

[ericinmia]

Currently Ivan is a tad north of the offical NHC track...
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/ivan.html
"enable the track"

I agree with some of your thoughts however the northerly turn is beginning to materialize. If it ends, or doesn't begin more northerly in 36 hours, then i will concede that you were on the money.

But for now, i am going to stick with the my thoughts which are over the next 36 hours a little north of the NHC track.
-Eric

[wxwatcher2]

I've watched each update from the NHC/TPC with keen interest and have noted that the track has moved Eastward with each new discussion.

So, before all of us in Florida officially panic, lets see where the track is at 11pm tonight 9/9/2004
If I see a track that begins to stay steady, I'll finally believe it.

I'm in Central Florida and right now, my feeling is it will miss us here perhaps an extreme S. Florida hit but might even miss Fla altogther

[yoda]

Hmm interesting call.. but agree we need another 24-48 hrs before people start panicking again in FL.

[Guest]

" as long as you had some sort of reasonable idea, or data backing your thought and theory."

I do- as of bedtime I the ridge was weakening above Ivan, thus setting the stage for a potential northward turn, but there was still the pesky fact that Ivan was moving due west as of bedtime. Now I wake up and find a NW course and that dramatically increases the chances that Ivan will miss the US, in my opinion.

Not sure of what you were looking at but I have seen no turn to the NW and i really dont care for post like this as well. Lets all keep calm.

Do me a favor and look at this link below and when the little box shows up hit the enter button on your Keyboard.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/visit/east.html

[yoda]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif


well... its a start...

[Aquawind]

Oh Great just as the track moves east of me someone has to post the west concept again..lol.. I am surprised it's north of the forecast..