Frances Advisories

[Brent]

I'm anxious to see what they find.

[lilbump3000]

To mee it looks like the forward speed is starting to increase with her.

[cape_escape]

I'm anxious to see what they find.

ow long will it be before they can tell us something?

[Guest]

If only they would be in Frances when here eye wall replacement cycle wasn't going on... I hate it when this happens because you never know what the real winds would of been.

[lilbump3000]

Well there close by her actually somewere around 60W. All what they find will be included in the 5 P.M. advisory.

[soonertwister]

They must be flying out of PR.

[senorpepr]

97779 18154 10173 60800 56500 99005 56691 /4589
RMK AF861 0106A FRANCES OB 02


1815Z
17.3N 60.8W
No turbulence
Clear flight
Flight level: 18,500ft
Flight level wind: Vrb 05KT
Temp: -6C
Dewpoint: -19C
Weather: Scattered Clouds
500mb height: 19,300ft

[senorpepr]

They must be flying out of PR.

Yes. They flew there after their Gaston mission last night. That's part of the reason why they didn't continue fly missions into Gaston.

[Brent]

I'm anxious to see what they find.

ow long will it be before they can tell us something?

I suspect we'll have a pretty good idea of the intensity in an hour or so(certainly in time for the 5pm advisory).

[quickychick]

Because of all the furor surrounding them I plotted the NHC forecast paths for all the advisories, then had to cut out all but the last eight because it got too busy.

Updated with 8/29 2300 advisory track: Apologies. The mugwumps who house the web server turned it off again, and they shall be beaten.

click here or...




Make of it what you will regarding NHC's 120 hr 'variances.' Is there a website out there that has this info already? If so, oops

-qd

[WeatherEmperor]

nice work.

<RICKY>

[Frank P]

Interesting plots... basically its actual track is tracking slightly south of the projected plots....

[btsgmdad]

Great Work, definitely looks fairly consistent to me.

[senorpepr]

97779 18404 10175 58700 56100 01016 56//2 /4588
RMK AF861 0106A FRANCES OB 04

1840Z
17.5N 58.7W
No turbulence
Clear flight
Flight level: 18,400ft
Flight level wind: 010° 16KT
Temp: -6C
Dewpoint: n/a
Weather: Broken Clouds
500mb height: 19,300ft

[cycloneye]

TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040829 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040829 1800 040830 0600 040830 1800 040831 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 55.1W 19.0N 57.1W 19.3N 59.3W 19.7N 61.7W
BAMM 18.7N 55.1W 18.8N 57.3W 19.0N 59.7W 19.2N 62.2W
A98E 18.7N 55.1W 19.1N 56.7W 19.8N 58.7W 20.4N 61.0W
LBAR 18.7N 55.1W 18.9N 56.9W 19.2N 59.2W 19.6N 61.8W
SHIP 115KTS 109KTS 106KTS 103KTS
DSHP 115KTS 109KTS 106KTS 103KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040831 1800 040901 1800 040902 1800 040903 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.3N 64.2W 21.7N 68.5W 22.9N 71.5W 23.1N 73.6W
BAMM 19.6N 64.7W 20.6N 68.9W 21.7N 71.5W 22.4N 73.2W
A98E 20.8N 63.9W 22.5N 69.0W 23.8N 73.4W 22.3N 77.0W
LBAR 20.1N 64.4W 21.2N 69.3W 22.6N 72.3W 23.4N 73.9W
SHIP 102KTS 96KTS 90KTS 84KTS
DSHP 102KTS 96KTS 90KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.7N LONCUR = 55.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 18.4N LONM12 = 53.7W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 17.7N LONM24 = 52.3W
WNDCUR = 115KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 115KT
CENPRS = 948MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE

Still is crawling.

[Brent]

Only moving at 7 kt, a little slower than earlier.

UGH...

[lilbump3000]

She seems to be moving faster to me.

[adelphi_sky]

Wouldn't it be great if someone could put that recon data in graphical form that's updated as new recon info is gatherd? Sort of like plotting the track of the recon flight as it approaches the storm with a legend or box that represents the data in laymans terms? I always feel like I'm looking at 1's and 0's when reading that stuff.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Wouldn't it be great if someone could put that recon data in graphical form that's updated as new recon info is gatherd? Sort of like plotting the track of the recon flight as it approaches the storm with a legend or box that represents the data in laymans terms? I always feel like I'm looking at 1's and 0's when reading that stuff.

ditto

[canegrl04]

Me,too.Can't make heads or tails at of those.