Ivan Advisories

[mascpa]

Absolutely incredible!!!

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Code: Select all

AIDS FOR

HURRICANE IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040909 1200 UTC

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040911 1200 040912 1200 040913 1200 040914 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 78.1W 18.7N 79.9W 21.1N 81.1W 24.6N 80.3W
BAMM 17.1N 77.6W 18.9N 79.5W 21.3N 81.0W 24.5N 80.5W

SHIP 136KTS 129KTS 122KTS 106KTS
DSHP 96KTS 89KTS 56KTS 32KTS



Will someone please shoot the BAMM/BAMD and SHIP models?

[chadtm80]

New background for work computer here

[Travelgirl]

Our local mets in New Orleans are telling us not to worry that this storm is not coming our direction. I think they shouldn't lead the community into false sense of safety. When talking to other co-workers and friends, I find they are not concerned. No one is watching the storm. I'm afraid if not this storm but maybe the another, this city will be caught off guard.

[Guest]

Wanted to add that i will try and get some images up later to better explain my reasoning for those who may wanna know or perhaps not understand.

[jes]

Our local weatherman in Mobile this morning said that the winds should reduce to about 135 mph when it gets to the Miami area. He meant that far up - not that it is going to Miami.

[Stormcenter]

Without quoting JB, let's just say that he disagrees with the Florida landfall and is still projecting a central Gomex hit as the most likely choice.

Are you serious?

I have a brother in New Orleans & one in Mobile so I hope that doesn't
pan out. Not that I want it to hit Florida either.

[otowntiger]

Well I'm not a meteorologist but from what I hear them say, including the TPC, is NO. It will not maintain that strength, in fact it may have already topped out, the pressure is on the way back up and the cloud tops are cooling. It will probably go through an Ewrc (eyewall replacement cycle) as well before the day is over. All that said, Ivan could weaken a lot and still be very, very destructive. It could also regain strength after all this.

[B-Bear]

Our local weatherman in Mobile this morning said that the winds should reduce to about 135 mph when it gets to the Miami area. He meant that far up - not that it is going to Miami.

That is a RIDICULOUS statement. Hurricanes DO NOT have any trouble maintaining cat 5 status. The difficulty lies in favorable atmospheric conditions remaining stable for extended periods of times to enable the cat 5 to sustain that intensity for that long. In order for a cat 5 to happen, conditions have to be "just right." What is unusual is for the conditions to remain in place for extended periods of time. But for him to suggest that it will reduce to 135 mph, without explaining why he believes that, is utterly ridiculous.

[Guest]

There is a ridge that, as of yet, hasn't developed, however, is expected to develop by the weekend and extend down into the East/Center of the GOM. This is why they are anticipating the turn to the right

Which is along with what i am thinking as well which i posted about here------------>http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=43133

[TPACane04]

Short answer on maintaining Cat 5 strength over long period...doubtful.

BUT..go back to Isabel in 2003...she maintained sub-925 pressure and 155-160mph winds for roughly a 30 hour period

Interestingly, she hit Cat 5 status around Spt 11 last year...and Ivan does so almost exactly one calendar year later.

My fear is a near total wipeout of Jamaica...and with low shear ahead and solid SST's in front of Ivan, Jamaica can only hope for a brush off their NORTH coast...any hit just south or on south coastline spells disaster.

[chadtm80]

Current Track
Forecasted Track
Projected Path
Advisories
Sat images and loops

http://www.storm2k.org navigate by links in black buttons. Will be updated in real time

[debbiet]

Do we see those perfect conditions remaining in place throughout the forecast period with Ivan? I've only been here since last year with Isabel, and everyone seemed to think she would maintain her strength much longer than she really did...I guess I'm just hoping and praying that this huge storm may be likely to weaken a bit before striking ANY land mass.

[yoda]

The models really went no where (i.e. no change) except for being slightly more west. The BAMM and BAMD show Ivan clipping FL.. the UKMET is still in the GOM.... and the LBAR and GFDL bring Ivan on shore at the same place almost before having it (I extrapolated it out some) come back out over the Atlantic.....

[rockyman]

[/img]

[andrew_the_beast]

watch out JAMAICA its after you first. In my opinion, FLORIDA is still in BULLEYES. Still say hits somewhere around the western coast of Florida. there is the CAT 5 i was waiting for all night yesterday. should hold pretty steady from here and dont be surprised if there are / were gusts over 200 mph.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Per TWC....

[Aquawind]

[Rainband]

Looking better for the west coast!!

[tallbunch]

up the way the east coast of FL?