Ivan Advisories

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

1938 , 'long island express' was cat5 for some 2 1/2 to 3 days over the atlantic!. it was also a cape verde hurricane. This storm eventually "weakened" to a catagory 3 upon landfall. yet produced sustained winds at blue hill observatory MA, 25 miles inland, over 120 and a gust to 186. 72 hours as as catagory 5 155-160mph hurricane in the atlantic basin.

So basically, it is all about the surrounding environment and SST to determine a hurricanes ability to sustain itself. Given the right conditions (such as, the favorable conditions to strengthen to a catagory 5), the storm should have no trouble sustaining itself.

[stu]

Phillip Avery from the BBC's forecasting team will be taking questions on this year's hurricane season online at the BBC from 14:00BST.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/bsp/hi ... 1094720450


It is on right now if you want to have a look ...

[Rainband]

Too early to say, if the models keep shifting east it may be a fish

[yoda]

The real big thing I will be looking for is where does it pass Jamiaca? South, on top of, or North? This will give me a good idea of where Ivan COULD be going next.

[rockyman]

Actually, these models are further west than the 06z models, implying a greater west coast threat

[catzmeow]

between the interminable waiting for Frances, and now this, we're going nuts here in this part of Florida.

Catz

[cycloneye]

If it passes north of that island it then will take a course to the Bahamas and turn NE not affecting the US east coast.

But if it passes south of Jamaica then somewhere in the US coast will see Ivan so follow the track of Ivan thru the longituds of Jamaica 77w-78w.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Just heard it on TWC..

[dhweather]

Ivan will go where he wants, he's a predator.

After Jamacia, we can't say, there's too many variables. Every time you turn around, there's another jog for 204 frames to the West, and that
has dramatic affects downstream.

[Zadok]

Total evacuation of Keys ordered as Ivan track points to Florida

Associated Press
Posted September 9 2004, 8:47 AM EDT

Emergency officials ordered the total evacuation of the Keys today because the powerful Hurricane Ivan could hit the island chain as early as Sunday.

All tourists, recreational vehicles and mobile home residents were urged to evacuate the Florida Keys early Thursday. A phased evacuation of residents will begin Friday.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... news-front

[Jeremy]

Doesn't the hurricane have to swing a lot to the north to hit Jamaica? It looks like it is going South of JA.

It hasn't tracked that far north yet.

When should this swing to the north happen?

Thanks,
Jeremy

[rtd2]

WOW no response maybe Its not there?

[ColdWaterConch]

Wow...they must be spooked something fierce.

[Cookiely]

This is so sad for people in the keys to be away from home for so long. I understand the necessity of starting the evacuations since it will be a monstrous undertaking. I just don't understand where all these people are going. Even if the dangerous winds are confined to the core, at this point we don't have any idea of the landfall spot.

[rtd2]

time for the MEDIA HYPE TO BEGIN!

[tallbunch]

how many days until you can tell if it will fish or not? If it starts turning North now?

[canegrl04]

Thanks!

[Rainband]

Well it won't be a fish it has hit land. I mean it may not hit the conus if the models shift east again!!

[goodlife]

I really really hate that this thing looks like it's going to hit Florida...but I'm also relieved they've adjusted the track more eastward AWAY from me....if it holds the track the NHC is showing...it really won't even go into the gom...
strange stuff these storms...
but it looks like S. Louisiana will dodge yet another one...thank goodness

[ColdWaterConch]

Exactly...being a conch, I dount that any locals are going to evac this soon....