Charley Advisories

[cycloneye]

Pacific side.No numbers yet for the atlantic wave off africa 92L

[yoda]

Ah, ok thanks for clearing that up Luis.

[senorpepr]

02/1600 UTC 13.1N 129.6W T1.0/1.0 92 -- East Pacific Ocean

Yes... this isn't 92L that we've been tracking. The coordinates put it between Mexico and Hawaii.

[yoda]

I just got confused between the 2 92s!

[Anonymous]

...Third tropical depression of the season forms near the Windward
Islands...

interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of this system.
At 145 PM AST...1745z...the center of Tropical Depression
Three was located near latitude 11.7 north...longitude 61.1 west or
about 50 miles... 80 km...southeast of Grenada.

The depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph
...35 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
The depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Tuesday.
Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely over portions of the
Windward Islands through this evening...especially over elevated
terrain.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.

Repeating the 145 PM AST position...11.7 N... 61.1 W. Movement
toward...west near 22 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM AST.

Forecaster Pasch

[lilbump3000]

Well they upgraded it without recon. I think it can become a tropical strom in the next 12-24 hours.

[Rainband]

Everyone enjoy your Crow

[Typhoon_Willie]

Ok! We have something new to watch!

[Hyperstorm]

It looks like they did find a westerly wind after all. That's all it needed as it was VERY well organized. Now, let's see as it slows down what will this bring to all of us.

[senorpepr]

Everyone enjoy your Crow

Can I get some seasoning for my crow?

[Rainband]

This may become a player But I agree it needs to slow down and stay persistant

[Brent]

Kinda surprised at this. They DEFINTELY found a west wind somewhere.

[Anonymous]

YES! I was the first on the board to post the offical on TD 3!

[MWatkins]

Here's the discussion...

000
WTNT43 KNHC 091748
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS
EARLIER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ISLANDS OF TRINIDAD AND
MARGARITA SHOW WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10
KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THERE IS NOW A DEFINITE CLOSED CIRCULATION
AT THE SURFACE...THE SYSTEM NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS BEING
NUMBERED AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY
WELL-ORGANZIED SYSTEM WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THIS IS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/19. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. LATER IN
THE PERIOD...CONSIDERABLE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS CALLED
FOR AS THE CYCLONE NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS TRACK IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODEL
OUTPUT.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1745Z 11.7N 61.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 12.0N 63.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 13.0N 66.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 14.0N 70.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 15.0N 73.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 17.0N 78.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 19.0N 81.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 21.5N 85.0W 70 KT

MW

[PTrackerLA]

Wow I thought the gulf would have been upgraded first.

[Brent]

HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS!!!!


TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS
EARLIER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ISLANDS OF TRINIDAD AND
MARGARITA SHOW WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10
KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THERE IS NOW A DEFINITE CLOSED CIRCULATION
AT THE SURFACE...THE SYSTEM NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS BEING
NUMBERED AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY
WELL-ORGANZIED SYSTEM WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THIS IS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/19. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. LATER IN
THE PERIOD...CONSIDERABLE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS CALLED
FOR AS THE CYCLONE NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS TRACK IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODEL
OUTPUT.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1745Z 11.7N 61.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 12.0N 63.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 13.0N 66.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 14.0N 70.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 15.0N 73.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 17.0N 78.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 19.0N 81.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 21.5N 85.0W 70 KT

[Typhoon_Willie]

You did well Floydbuster!

[lilbump3000]

Seems that we may have a Cat 1 strom in the yucatan channel if this forecast stays correct with the system.

[Brent]

They slow it down DRAMATICALLY. Hurricane near Jamaica in 72 hours. Near the Western Tip of Cuba on Saturday and moving NW!

[Hyperstorm]

Not to alarm anyone, but if this forecast track verifies and UL winds remain as favorable as they are forecast to, we could be looking FOLKS, at the beginnings of a POSSIBLY historic hurricane. Stay tuned...