Frances Advisories

[PurdueWx80]

URNT11 KNHC 292009
97779 20094 10201 53918 30700 14038 08068 /3167 41440
RMK AF861 0106A FRANCES OB 10

Ok, that's better. They are on the northeast side at 20.1N, 53.9 W. I still expect another VDM, or a report of winds in the N/NE eyewall on the 5 p.m. discussion.

[Derecho]

An excellent example of why Line "D" is basically worthless...

D. 55 KT


That's the eyeball estimate of the winds by looking out the window and seeing what the waves look like. There were many like this for Charley.

However, any time line D is higher than the max FL winds (like Gaston) people suddenly seem to focus on it.

[TerryAlly]

URNT10 KNHC 292005
97779 20014 10281 85000 76200 22013 69//1 /5760
AF306 WXWXA 04082919306 OB 01

Either this is a mistake, or they are sending an aircraft out to TD 8 since it looks to be organizing so rapidly.

There is some important business happening on a section of the east coast over the next 4 days .... can't take chances ... Don't think it would be amusing for this cyclone to bushwhack anyone

[msbee]

thanks Brent

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Its been stairstepping like this for a while, it will run due west for a few hours and then NW for a few hours. Overall heading has been WNW.

Based upon recon it's now at 18 DEG 47 MIN N . NHC had it at 18.6 at both 5:00 and 11:00. That's pretty west to me.

[Brent]

URNT10 KNHC 292005
97779 20014 10281 85000 76200 22013 69//1 /5760
AF306 WXWXA 04082919306 OB 01

Either this is a mistake, or they are sending an aircraft out to TD 8 since it looks to be organizing so rapidly.

There is some important business happening on a section of the east coast over the next 4 days .... can't take chances ... Don't think it would be amusing for this cyclone to bushwhack anyone

LOL

I doubt this will affect any land, especially New York City.

[Brent]

Its been stairstepping like this for a while, it will run due west for a few hours and then NW for a few hours. Overall heading has been WNW.

Based upon recon it's now at 18 DEG 47 MIN N . NHC had it at 18.6 at both 5:00 and 11:00. That's pretty west to me.

it's actually a hair south of west(not WSW), UNLESS the center wasn't in the center of the eye(happened with Isabel when it was still far out in the Atlantic well east of the Islands).

[schmita]

Brent,
Based on this new Vortex data, she is at 18.4 and 55.1. At 11AM discussion she was at 18.6 and 54.7. That is a definite west movement with maybe a wobble on lattitude. If she continues westward for 36 + hours as projected, how can we at 63.1 expect so little? The data also shows 97 kt winds in southern quadrant.
Help decipher this please.
irina

[AL Chili Pepper]

Maybe one day we can get some streaming video on that plane. That would be cool.

[Brent]

I don't know. It's *PROBABLY* temporary. It's forecast to move a little north of west which would take it safely north.

[ColinD]

Brent,
Based on this new Vortex data, she is at 18.4 and 55.1. At 11AM discussion she was at 18.6 and 54.7. That is a definite west movement with maybe a wobble on lattitude. If she continues westward for 36 + hours as projected, how can we at 63.1 expect so little? The data also shows 97 kt winds in southern quadrant.
Help decipher this please.
irina

B. 18 DEG 47 MIN N
55 DEG 14 MIN W

= 18.8N, 55.2W

[Brent]

This helps, from Derecho in another thread:

Wrong.

It's the old "minutes of arc" error. VORTEX statements use minutes of arc..60 minutes to a degree.

NHC statements convert that into Tenths of a degree.

The VORTEX places Frances at 18.8 N, 55.2 W.

Frances has gained .2 degrees of latitude since 11AM. Hence, it's NOT moving due West.

[Derecho]

Its been stairstepping like this for a while, it will run due west for a few hours and then NW for a few hours. Overall heading has been WNW.

Based upon recon it's now at 18 DEG 47 MIN N . NHC had it at 18.6 at both 5:00 and 11:00. That's pretty west to me.

See other thread. You need to learn the difference between minutes of arc and tenths of a degree.

It's an amazingly common error. Unfortunate VORTEX statements and NHC advisories use two different measurements of angle.

[Anonymous]

Last few frames make her look ill, hopefully a continued trend.

Then out to sea!

[lilbump3000]

I think when the advisory comes out in a few it will not be a Cat. 4, probably barley a Cat. 3, it looks like a Cat. 2 to me.

[WeatherEmperor]

The eye looks a bit worse compared to yesterday but that could just be temporary.

<RICKY>

[Hurricanehink]

Yea, it will probably be downgraded at 5, unless Recon found something we didn't hear of.

[Guest]

Its called an eye wall replacement cycle. A pity the hurricane hunters got into it just as it started to happen.

[Brent]

No.

This is AT LEAST a 125 mph Category Three IMO(look at the pressure measured by recon). It's probably a borderline 3/4 right now(130-135 mph).

[B-Bear]

I think you're right, Nikolai. The eye almost appears to have collapsed. The timing will be somewhat interesting, because it should start building back soon. But it will be doing a lot of its rebuilding at night when the cloud tops are much cooler. I'll be interested to see if we get some explosive redevelopment out of this.