Ivan Advisories

[tallbunch]

Where do you see Ivan going after FL? Any rain for me? I am having a party next week for my son? OUTDOORS.

[Derek Ortt]

forecast graphics are now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html

[GulfHills]

Please please be wrong, I'm in Tallahassee. Would you evacuate? My husband won't be home till next Friday.

[ncweatherwizard]

Corrected 72 hour position...

[dwinpcola]

when do you think th models will have a good grip on where Ivan will go(Fri-Sat) or later.

dw

[wsquared77]

I am already seeing extra traffic heading north on the turnpike. I am glad they are doing this early. There is basically only one road out of the keys so it's best they get started soon.

[soonertwister]

I believe that phased evacuations of the keys start in the lower keys and work toward mainland. Key Largo would be one of the later keys to be evacuated, being near the top of the keys.

Given what I've seen of Ivan, and the fact that evacuation is going to be next to impossible by the weekend due to jammed highways, I would say that evacuating to somewhere close, to a shelter or strongly built hotel - well away from water - might be a wise choice.

I'm really hurting for all the Floridians right now, they don't deserve to smacked around like this.

[x-y-no]

Yeah ... even though my limited understanding says this should head into the Gulf, the fact that they're ordering evac of the entire Keys rather than just the lower Keys (as they did with Charley) gives me pause.

[Rainband]

Man I don't want this thing anywhere near me

[Kludge]

Could maybe IVAN stand for I'm Very Angry Now

You know, I remember all too vividly Mr. Gilbert back in '88... and how it hit Jamaica on Sept 11 :


They kept saying "its gonna go north... its gonna go north". Let's all hope for enough deja-vu to spare poor Florida.

[vbhoutex]

I did not question the NHC. The NHC should ALWAYS be used as a person's last and final information source to make decisions concerning these systems and their behavior and what they should do in resonse. I did state what I see and why I think what I think will happen will occur.

The NHC does not ever order evacuations. Local emergency management officials always make those final decisions based on information provided by the NHC and local weather service offices.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I have been holding off of this thought to wait and see if Ivan reaches CAT 5 strength. As powerful as he is could he strengthen the ridge to his north and east (create his own environment) and keep him on a more westerly course? What if the trough in the NW does not get as strong as forecast or even if it does, with Ivan being so far south and strong could it really force him that much north? How strong is the trough coming down supposed to be? Is it possible the two Highs could merge and be one strong High and keep him WNW? I am just trying to see if there are any unforeseen circumstances that could keep Ivan from going to Florida?

[Guest]

I receive some model data as it's directly uploaded to the servers. The 12Z NOGAPS at 72 hours basically shows no change. Still northwest across Western Cuba at 72 hours.
The NHC forecast as we know has shifted further eat. Will we see a shift back west at 11am? Very possible.
Time will tell, but I think the forecast track is leaning a bit too much with the GFS.
And yet another Tropical Depression 10!!!

[Derek Ortt]

I do make evacuation requests unless it is blatantly obvious that local emergency management is out to lunch (which I have yet to see). Listen to local EOM and if they say to go, then go.

However, this storm wouldnt be in Talahassee until Tuesday morning

[Brent]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 29

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on September 09, 2004

...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan heading for Jamaica and the
western Caribbean Sea...

at 11 am AST...the government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane
Warning for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the
Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane
Warning will likely be required for the Cayman Islands later today.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the government of the Dominican Republic has
issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Barahona Peninsula from Barahona to perdenales. A tropical storm
watch remains in effect for the southwestern coast of the Dominican
Republic from palenque westward to Barahona.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane
Watch for central and eastern Cuba from the province of Matanzas
eastward.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the Hurricane Warning for Aruba...Bonaire...
and Curacao and all warnings for Venezuela and Colombia have been
discontinued.

Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 14.5 north...longitude 71.4 west or about 430 miles...
695 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph
...24 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours. On this track the hurricane will be nearing Jamaica on
Friday.

Ivan is a extremely dangerous category five hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale wit maximum sustained winds near 160
mph...260 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in
intensity are expected during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb...27.17 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.

Repeating the 11 am AST position...14.5 N... 71.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 920 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
AST.

Forecaster Avila

[Rainband]

looks like a shift west, this is in response to the high?? Man I hope this doesn't come near here

[rtd2]

opps double post....boards having hiccups ...mods are on top of it though

[chadtm80]

Yep shifted back left just a bit

[Rainband]

I hope so

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004
 
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS EARLIER THIS MORNING ABOUT 1141Z.
FLIGHT LEVEL...700 MB...WINDS WERE 156 KNOTS WITH AN EXTRAPOLATED
PRESSURE OF 917 MB AND 921 MB MEASURED BY A DROP. IVAN HAS AN
OUTSTANDING SATELLITE PRESENTATION...HOWEVER...THE RING OF
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE BIT. INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 140 KNOTS. HURRICANES NORMALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN
SUCH PEAK INTENSITY FOR A LONG TIME AND MOST LIKELY THERE WILL WE
SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE HURRICANE WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN CAT 4 AND 5 UNTIL IT REACHES CUBA.  THEREAFTER..THE EFFECTS
OF LAND...INCREASING SHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL CAUSE
WEAKENING.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BECAUSE THE HURRICANE WILL BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
SURROUNDING A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE
HIGHLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING THE HURRICANE
BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST
TRACK BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO
COLLAPSE AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
AS IT CROSSES CUBA.  A RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED...WILL BRING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AS INDICATED BY THE UK...CANADIAN AND NOGAPS GLOBAL
MODELS. A WEAKER RIDGE THAN ANTICIPATED COULD RESULT ON A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. THE 4-5 DAY OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...CALLS FOR A SOLUTION IN
BETWEEN...BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER WEST/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN FLORIDA.
 
FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 14.5N  71.4W   140 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 15.3N  73.3W   140 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 17.0N  75.2W   135 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 18.5N  77.3W   135 KT
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N  79.0W   135 KT
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 21.0N  80.5W   130 KT
 96HR VT     13/1200Z 24.0N  82.0W   115 KT
120HR VT     14/1200Z 28.5N  82.0W    85 KT INLAND