Ivan Advisories

[Rainband]

For floridas sake I hope they keep shifting west then sw

[dhweather]

So far, he's stayed South and West of most of the guidance. It's looking more and more like Jamacia will gut the full force attack of Ivan.

[fortmyerseng]

I'm going to start calling this storm

Hurricane Fivan.

[9:48]

Avila gives too much credibility to the 'reliable' GFS. Look at the verification data for Ivan! horrible....his GFSphilia is dragging the frcst track too far east.

[PurdueWx80]

The GFS is just coming in, but it looks to be edging to the west ever so slightly w/ every run. I also took a look at last night's ensembles. There is still some disagreement between a move east and west of FL, but in the means, pressures end up much lower in the Gulf - indicating many of the members do indeed see this going west.

[Lebowsky]

I just made reservations for a sunday morning flight to Baltimore and a hotel room.

I'm tired of these hurricanes and I don't want to deal with Ivan, I'll fly back when it is all over.

[quickychick]

Fivan Ho!

[otowntiger]

The only land mass between Ivan and Florida that is likely to effect the intensity of the hurricane is Cuba, and only then if Ivan tracks more across central Cuba. A western Cuba track isn't likely to diminish his intensity much at all, if any. As far as atmospheric conditions go, they are expected to become MORE FAVORABLE for further development at this point. Which brings me back to my question: What was this met basing his claims on? Is he privy to some information that I'm not seeing, because I do not see anything in the forecast to reduce this hurricane's intensity at this point. It can certainly happen. The shear that diminished Frances' intensity was a bit of a surprise. But short of something like that happening, he's going to remain a cat 5 or very intense cat 4 between now and landfall, IMO.

Read the 11:00 discussion by the NHC. There will be an effect of land mass, shear and lower sea surface temperatures resulting in the weakening of this catergory 5 storm. It appears to already be a little weaker due to the weakening of the eyewall, according to the NHC. Not to say the storm will still not be very destructive.

[tallbunch]

derek, is it hits there, and rain & wind for GA/SC/NC?

[msbee]

the video is working now

[Derek Ortt]

if it comes in like that, there would be significant wind and rain for southern georgia

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Edit: Added Track Map Link.

11 AM Forecast takes it over the top of Punta Gorda on Monday....the 13th of September...exactly one month to the day that Charley struck.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 1533W5.gif

I believe...and seriously hope....it comes further west......the FL peninsula....and Punta Gorda ESPECIALLY do NOT need this!

[Sanibel]

Things are moving here and I've got to get busy preparing.

Maybe Ivan will go south of Jamaica, but I say he's on the NHC track and dangerous for us again like Charley.

The WV image shows a compromised Bermuda High with a ULL trying to form within it. Basically, Ivan becomes a "free-agent" at that intensity. However, he has already reacted to the weakening High above him, so it is just a matter of how he curves into that recurve he is entering.

He'll either curve into Florida or not. Gulf Of Mexico tracks west of the coast of Florida are becoming less likely with what is presently happening...

[LSUChamps0002]

Being in New Orleans, I am hoping for a big shift to the east, obviously east of Florida. This continual west stuff in the models might lose its entertainment value fairly soon.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

derek, is it hits there, and rain & wind for GA/SC/NC?

good luck getting an answer....

[Cuzam]

Could maybe IVAN stand for I'm Very Angry Now

You know, I remember all too vividly Mr. Gilbert back in '88... and how it hit Jamaica on Sept 11 :


They kept saying "its gonna go north... its gonna go north". Let's all hope for enough deja-vu to spare poor Florida.

Cozumel and Cancun were hit by Gilbert on Sept. 13 and 14 '88

[Derek Ortt]

the lower oceanic heat content lilely wont be a factor since Ivan is not going to stall in the Gulf of Mexico. I am not sure at all what Avila is thinking

[Skywatch_NC]

Looks nearly like a path Frances took! Panhandle landfall that is.

Eric

[Rainband]

Being in New Orleans, I am hoping for a big shift to the east, obviously east of Florida. This continual west stuff in the models might lose its entertainment value fairly soon.

I was leading up to him turning around

[Josephine96]

I think Ivan could stay a Cat 5 for a bit.. or be an on and off Cat 5.. He's a beautiful hurricane.. But the thought of seeing him at my door even makes me cringe..