Ivan Advisories

[Brent]

I noticed that last night about the date. I've always heard the number 13 was bad luck.

[Cape Verde]

The way I read it, the NHC has virtually no idea where this storm will be on Sunday. It could be somewhere between the Bahamas or north of Cuba. Sheesh.

[x-y-no]

just a little faster - compare 60 hours from 12Z to 72 hours from 6Z run:

[Josephine96]

I'm not saying I want this monster.. But I do hope it leaves Punta Gorda alone.. They've had enough

[PurdueWx80]

Last night's Canadian ensembles are nearly unanimous on a central Gulf of Mexico threat. This is the first time I've seen this near perfect agreement, and I feel confident that the GEM has Ivan nailed. (You guys can put the final nail in my coffin if I'm wrong here). Seriously though, no one from Houston to Tampa should let their guard down at this point in time.

The image is shown below - each letter or number that is red represents the center of where each member thinks the storm is.


A couple of members want to develop a storm out in the central or west Atlantic, perhaps in association w/ the large upper level low that is now being forecast to erode some of the Atlantic ridge. If this happens, the GFS may be right in that there will be a storm off the mid-Atlantic late next week. However, I don't think that storm is Ivan.

There is also pretty good agreement that a seasonally strong jet at 250 mb will roar across the Pacific in ~5 days and carve out a deep trough in the western US. That favors ridginess in the east, and heights should build enough north of the storm to send Ivan to the Gulf.

[NFLnut]

Where's the A98E when you need it for some comic relief?

I see the A98E sending it into Coobah for "a quickie" and then immediately 180-degrees back south into the eastern Carribean like it did for Frances.

[cswitwer]

Hey, Hugo Vet. Hang in there.

[Brent]

The storm surge in Apalachee Bay would be TERRIBLE.

The good news is, we have longer til landfall if it hits up there.

[dhweather]

Gee, thanks.

[x-y-no]

Going a little more left than the 6Z after that ...

[Josephine96]

How strong will Ivan get before he weakens..

I'm calling 175-180 mph

and a pressure of about 912

[chadtm80]

160

[Brent]

160-165. The odds of him getting stronger are just very small. I think he's peaked for now but don't rule out Cat 5 later on again, especially around or after Jamaica.

[dhweather]

160 looks like it, the interaction with Jamacia will
hurt him a bit, then Cuba. Maybe 165-170 at best.

[x-y-no]

5 days? Is that soon enough?

[Mister Popps]

Derek Ott, Thank you for your weather expertise. If Ivan hits Tallahassee, what does this mean for us in North Central Florida, like the Ocala area? Like high winds, I am still hearing winds gusting that isn't there from Frances. I'm not kidding about this! Call me shell shot from the winds!!

[PurdueWx80]

I think we have a sub 900-mb storm on our hands...especially if it misses Jamaica. I see no shear or dry air to impede this, and waters will start warming here in a bit. I think cloud tops have warmed a bit because it is over the "coolest" part of the Caribbean. Since I think Ivan will make it into the Gulf, barring any major impact from land, Ivan, in my mind, will be sub-900 somewhere in the GOM.

[BUD]

Do we know at this point how far the watches or warnings will have to be extended or when or is it to early to tell???

[PurdueWx80]

I think so, as Ivan should slow a bit in the NW Caribbean and/or SE Gulf.

[patsmsg]

Good information.

How reliable have the Canadian ensembles been in predicting the paths of these storms historically? I've never heard of them.