Ivan Advisories

[T'Bonz]

If it misses S. Florida, heck, ALL of Florida (as I have family from N to S Florida), then I would be delighted.

[Josephine96]

East.. west.. east west lol

[rtd2]

I have faith in them but not past 36hrs.... they are only human

[cape_escape]

What concerns me is that with Charley landfall was guessed, this far out, to be either Ft Myers or Tampa...Punta Gord got hit...between them both. With Frances, landfall was guessed as WPB or Melborne....landfall was between them too. Now, I've been hearing a lot about both Naples and Sarasota...That puts Ft myers in the middle! I don't like being the monkey in the middle!

[canegrl04]

Island nations are less equiped to handle a hurricane disaster and often times they experience more deaths.I hope Ivan spares Jamaica a direct hit only for that reason.Not that I would wish a stronger hurricane to hit the US

[BUD]

are they really set in stone, hurricanes do have a mind of there own they go where they will

[shaner]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I don't get it. Looking at that loop, it looks like Haiti might get the brunt of it. In fact, my first reaction to watching that loop is that Ivan is turning north, and may miss Florida alltogether.

But, I know nothing.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

Joe Bastardi commented a few days ago that he thinks Ivan could go into the Gulf untouched by Jamaica and Cuba

Joe Bastardi over reacted to a weak ridge and GFS solution during Frances, now he's overreacting to the west movement and the CMC. see the light, woman

[calidoug]

Nope, overall continues moving WNW at 285-290.

[W2GD]

Over the last several hours I have received confirmation via email and IM messages from several amateur radio operators on Aruba that there was minimal damage. Flooding was reported in the normal places that normally flood during heavy rain but otherwise very little visible damage to buildings or other infrastructure.

[SunnyThoughts]

I agree, timing is everything...the more west in the caribbean...the farther west he will be when the NOrthward movement begins.

[~SirCane]

This thing could go anywhere from New Orleans Eastward.

It's hard to judge a storm like this--this far in advance.

[Josephine96]

I'm sadly thinking we'll complete the trifecta here.. I'm wondering if winds will be up even more @ 2:00pm

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

Hurricane Donna, anyone?

[T'Bonz]

Yep. So up until the day before landfall, they seem confident. After that, anywhere between GOM and Atlantic.

Meh.

[~SirCane]

Best thing to do is wait till Saturday. By then the NHC will have it pretty much nailed on a projected landfall area. I trust the NHC in 2 maybe 3 days time. Not 5 days out.

[calidoug]

Winds should be down a little at 2PM and 5PM. Convection has warmed, probably because Ivan is passing over the (relatively) cool spot in the caribbean right now. Tonight, he moves back over increasingly warm waters, and will probably restrengthen.

[canegrl04]

This can only play havoc with evacuation efforts.Hope we don't get another Charley scenario where it doesn't make landfall where they said it would

[calidoug]

GFS did a great job 4-5 days out with Frances. Showed the stall over the Bahamas. Folks bashed that as "crazy" at the time, but it was exactly what happened.

[PurdueWx80]

What was crazy is that it kept taking Frances to the Carolinas...even though it stalled in the Bahamas. The important part was the final landfall, which it royally f-ed up.