Frances Advisories

[MSRobi911]

So am I understanding here, the 10 forecast that has it square on my punkin head is old info from last night?

[obxhurricane]

Yes...you are correct...

Day 8 GFS...

[img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_180l.gif [/img][/img]

[mobilebay]

the new cmc puts frances in the florida keys in 144. the model on the other thread was from last night.

[Guest]

link?

[logybogy]

OK, so why the conflict?

What is the Canadian doing with the ridge to push Frances SOUTH than the GFS is not?

[Stratosphere747]

So do you like more about the GFS than the Canadian??

[flyingphish]

Fair enough . We agree to disagree, but I certainly respect your input. Have a good evening. PS..Dolphins still look like dog -doo !! Bucks look better though. How is Andre Johnson looking? Probably one of Miami's "U"'s best wide receivers since Micheal Irvin. Gonna be at the Canes /Noles match up on Labor Day Evening...Frances permitting. Good Night.

[Lindaloo]

Well show us what the Canadian model says. You are relying on one model.

[btangy]

That leaves the ECMWF and UKMET models to complete the spread. So, forget consensus for at least one run. Wouldn't it be funny if the GFDL shifted south. That would just be the NHC's nightmare for a 5 day track forecast.

[Matthew5]

If it doe's what the Gfs shows it should not be that strong(Maybe a cat2) because of all the other storms that have cooled the water in that area.

[chris_fit]

That leaves the ECMWF and UKMET models to complete the spread. So, forget consensus for at least one run. Wouldn't it be funny if the GFDL shifted south. That would just be the NHC's nightmare for a 5 day track forecast.

When are they due?

[frankthetank]

these models are on crack....i don't get it....why the sudden flip...

[btangy]

When are they due?

I actually don't know. Go to sleep and wake up early. They'll be waiting for you then.

[Derecho]

So do you like more about the GFS than the Canadian??

The Canadian is generally the worst of the global models for tropical systems.

Got lucky once, for Charley, but otherwise is pretty uniformly bad. Blew Fabian and Isabel badly last year, for example.

[Wthrman13]

The Canadian has a stronger 500 mb ridge north of Frances at 144 hours, and the northern stream trough so prominent on the GFS is weaker and further north and west on the Canadian. The Canadian also has a cut-off low in the SW U.S. that is non-existent on the GFS.

[B-Bear]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

This is unbelievable. Look at the outflow channel to the north of Frances. Wow!

[Derecho]

The GFDL uses the GFS as its base field, so the GFDL is never going to differ all that much from the GFS. (The 0Z GFS uses the 18Z GFS, not the 0Z GFS, for that, btw.)

[obxhurricane]

I'm not relying on one model. We are talking about the GFS on this thread. I have not said once on this thread where I think this storm is going. Yikes...

I've seen the Canadian...and it looks just like the old GFS runs. I've also seen the EC...which is taking Frances Westward.

I haven't made a choice on where landfall will be...if at all, and I don't believe you have heard me say so...please get off my case.

[mobilebay]

So do you like more about the GFS than the Canadian??

The Canadian is generally the worst of the global models for tropical systems.

Got lucky once, for Charley, but otherwise is pretty uniformly bad. Blew Fabian and Isabel badly last year, for example.

so your buying the new gfs? What is yor prediction Derocho?

[Matthew5]

The water is cooler because of all the storms that have hit up there. With a trough there would be shear that would weaken it like Isabel. So what do you think?