Bonnie Advisories

[Aquawind]

Nice qscat this afternoon as well..

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBds26.png

[yoda]

it will be upgraded to TD#2 tomorrow

[corpusbreeze]

Mr. Watkins what is your take on future direction in the five day range? Ballpark offcourse.

[corpusbreeze]

I think so too yoda.

[HURAKAN]

A strong tropical wave...accompanied by a well-defined low pressure
system...is centered about 680 miles east of the Windward Islands.
This system continues to become better organized and a tropical
depression could form on Tuesday as it moves west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely
monitor the progress of the system over the next few days.

[Hurricanehink]

Yea, if the convection stays. It could be classifyed right now, but then it would be a waste to declassify it if it looses convection or organization. Smart choice by NHC.

[Brent]

Yep. Could be upgraded as early as 5am.

[USAwx1]

Nice qscat this afternoon as well..

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBds26.png

Well we know theres an LLC there (which can be half the battle), and as previously noted by Myself and MW--its in a good environment for further development (Upper level high, weak vertical shear etc...), however there has not been much convection with it.





http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[TS Zack]

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...IS CENTERED ABOUT 680 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM ON TUESDAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

We will most probably see advisories starting tomorrow at 11AM... Lesser Antilles is 2004 Hurricane Season next target.

[wx247]

Convection looks better now than it did late this afternoon.

[Brent]

might even be a TD at 5am(are visibles up by that time for where it is or is it still dark?)

[MWatkins]

Mr. Watkins what is your take on future direction in the five day range? Ballpark offcourse.

Hey Corpusbreeze...

Of course the track models run on the GFS background...and the GFS may be overdoing the next east coast trough...so the sharp right turn by the system in the models may be overdone. If the system goes ahead and develops...it looks like a track through the northern Lesser Antillies and a possible encounter with Puerto Rico or the DR. After that it's hard to say...but right now the smart $ is on a track near the bahamas in 5 to 6 days with possible recurvature.

IF the system develops later on then all bets are off.

MW

[Air Force Met]

might even be a TD at 5am(are visibles up by that time for where it is or is it still dark?)

It's still too early by 5pm edt. However, another quickscat pass will verify its circulation.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Can you tell a little bit about it's future trajectory...
Some of the models now bring the system north of the islands...Can we rest safe???Personally I don't think so! I take those models like a grain of salt...

But What do you experts think...?North of the Islands??

[Aquawind]

Pressures Dropping..Winds Picking Up and Alex is off the coast..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=clkn7

It's coming..


http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kltx.shtml

[Scott_inVA]

Folks,

As Alex is so close I'm running that full time on the Model Map page but here's the 0Z on Invest 91L:

http://wrel.com/wx/AL912004.jpg

Note...this is NOT on the Model Map page.

Scott

[cycloneye]

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AROUND 970 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX THIS
EVENING WILL BE THE TALK OF THE TOWN FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL
AS THE WAVE WHICH FOLLOWS IT. CURRENT GFS DOES NOT LIKE THE WAVE AS
MUCH AS IT LIKES THE ONE THAT TRAILS IT. GFS HAS PICKED UP ON THE
CIRCULATION OF THE FIRST BUT DOES NOT KEEP IT PAST NEXT 24 HOURS
WHERE IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES AND OPEN WAVE. GUIDANCE LEADING TO TWO
MOISTURE PEAKS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FIRST AROUND 18Z ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE BULK PASSING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE OTHER
STARTING AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
AS AN OPEN WAVE WE MAY SEE A SPLITTING OF THE MOISTURE MAXIMAS WITH
THE MAXIMA PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER MOIST AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. 10M SCATTEROMETER
WINDS AT 21Z SHOW A GOOD CIRCULATION PATTERN WITH A CENTER NEAR
12N47W.

QUITE A FEW QUESTIONS STILL EXIST FOR THIS WAVE BUT ONE THIS
IS CERTAIN...IT WILL BE WATCHED QUITE INTENSELY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

They are not sounding too bullish tonight with it in respect to Puerto Rico is concerned but mainly a wait and see game as they are watching what happens with the future track.I say that already it is a TD but the NHC is waiting for an early morning QuickScat to then officially upgrade.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

This will change tomorow... You'll see...

[Aquawind]

I agree they are like NHC and giving it overnight at least before they get to excited..

[cycloneye]

I agree they are like NHC and giving it overnight at least before they get to excited..

Yes that not so bullish tone will change dramaticly tommorow as events unfold.