Alex Advisories

[The Dark Knight]

000
WTNT71 KNHC 012033
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT WED AUG 4 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

33.5N 77.8W 32 X X 1 33 MONTAUK POINT NY X X 2 9 11
34.7N 75.7W 4 16 2 X 22 PROVIDENCE RI X X 1 10 11
36.5N 72.5W X 1 11 4 16 NANTUCKET MA X X X 11 11
BERMUDA X X X 4 4 HYANNIS MA X X X 10 10
SAVANNAH GA 18 X X X 18 BOSTON MA X X X 10 10
CHARLESTON SC 42 X X X 42 PORTLAND ME X X X 8 8
MYRTLE BEACH SC 35 X X X 35 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 7 7
WILMINGTON NC 25 4 X X 29 EASTPORT ME X X X 6 6
MOREHEAD CITY NC 11 12 1 X 24 ST JOHN NB X X X 5 5
CAPE HATTERAS NC 2 15 4 X 21 MONCTON NB X X X 4 4
NORFOLK VA X 11 7 1 19 YARMOUTH NS X X X 7 7
OCEAN CITY MD X 2 12 1 15 HALIFAX NS X X X 4 4
ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 9 4 13 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 2 2
NEW YORK CITY NY X X 5 6 11 EDDY POINT NS X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE
C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE
D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$

The chances aren't very high for a Canadian landfall but,.......

[soonertwister]

Right now on visible the storm has an amazingly circular appearance. Coincidence or organization?

[Stormchaser16]

Derek i TOTALLY agree with you, i beg of the others who think this storm is nothing more then "pitiful" to please reconsider, this storm is literally on the verge of becoming very organized. Completely circular convection shows A) that it is developing new convection B) Could be forming a new center C) Good outflow/inflow and finally D) That northerly shear may be weakening slowly

[Thunder44]

Yeah, and also see the convection blowing up again. This storm maybe intensifying. If this continues I think we can have a hurricane within 24 hours.

[Stormchaser16]

Sooner- See my post titled "convection becoming completely circular" this names all of the important things that a circular appearance could lead to/mean

[Stormchaser16]

Either a new low level center is forming, OR the main dominant one now looks to be approaching the northern shield of convective activity..........

[dixiebreeze]

He's starting to get very impressive with the wrapping and symmetry:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Nimbus]

Real noticeable improvement of symmetry in the water vapor imagery. You can see the frontal boundary approaching from the west. Looks like a golfer lining up their shot.

[Stormchaser16]

It would have to have a major intensification period in order for that too happen- which it has a slim chance of doing.......

[The Dark Knight]

That would be pretty crazy.... I think that Alex has a few more tricks up his sleeve........

[Stormchaser16]

It DOES appear that the main IR blob is rotating...... now can we get an LLC to fire underneath that?

[Aquawind]

That would be quite a site!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes it would.. Getting a soaker in SW florida with the nice inflow from the gulf..lotsa moisture in the region..

[Rainband]

It DOES appear that the main IR blob is rotating...... now can we get an LLC to fire underneath that?

Be careful what you wish for.

[Stormchaser16]

There is too much convection in a symmetrical manner now for me to think that the center north of this will remain the main center for much longer........

[lilbump3000]

I think on the 8 o'clcok advisory this system will be stronger.

[The Dark Knight]

When did the Hunters come back.....????

[soonertwister]

There is too much convection in a symmetrical manner now for me to think that the center north of this will remain the main center for much longer........

It appears to me that the northern center is in the process of being ejected onshore by the larger circulation. Gets rid of that complication...

[Aquawind]

I think on the 8 o'clcok advisory this system will be stronger.

Sure hasn't weakened..It will be interesting to see if the convection continues through the night..been persistant for over 12 hours now..multivortexed,relocated,elongated and all...

[Stormchaser16]

Folks:

IF an LLC fires underneath this convection(which it may very well do so) then I would expect a period of moderate-rapid strengthening for about 12-24 hours........

What makes me think an LLC could fire?

The fact that the northerly shear may be dissipating, noted by the great outflow and symmetrical appearance of Alex now..... the very strong flareup of convection near the center of the convection may also show this as well. The main LLC that they are using as the center, is remaining pretty stationary, but showing some signs of doing something, possibly moving underneath the growing convection or weakening..... IDK yet, we will have to wait and see what happens with that. Right now all we can do is sit back and watch, but again , to those calling Alex "pathetic" and "a non neccesary upgrade to TS" i urge you to reconsider, as this storm is showing signs of being on the brink of intensification.

[Stormchaser16]

If that happens, i would immediately expect an LLC to form underneath the convection, is that what you are eluding to?