Charley Advisories

[soonertwister]

So those are the dimentions of the eye eh???????


12*40=480*30=WOW 14,400 sq. mile eye. Shesh

Actually, it's closer to about 1,000 nautical square miles, and probably less. That may sound like a lot, but a circular round eye of 25 miles diameter is about 490 square miles.

[seahawkjd]

I've been watching the satelite loops now and it looks like the eye may be tightening, not breaking up, plus the clouds around the eye are intensifying. Does anyone else see this or have I just been watching it too long?

[Derek Ortt]

URNT12 KNHC 141000
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/1000Z
B. 31 DEG 32 MIN N
80 DEG 06 MIN W
C. 700 MB 3006 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 168 DEG 87 KT
G. 062 DEG 15 NM
H. EXTRAP 990 MB
I. 8 C/ 3066 M
J. 13 C/ 3062 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN S THRU W
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 1/3 NM
P. AF980 1003A CHARLEY OB 18
MAX FL WIND 88 KT SE QUAD 0532Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 700MB.


looks like 90 m.p.h. winds now

[ncweatherwizard]

Of course, not nearly as much as in Florida. But inland, these winds will bring the trees down...power WILL go out--I'm telling people in my part of the state to be prepared to see something similar to Isabel, except lasting a shorter period of time. Will be interesting, since the center will also go through the Hampton Roads cities late this afternoon into early evening.

Forecast 11:

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... arley.html

Speed is finally set. There's practically no error in this forecast unless the storm moves a little faster--now watch now that I said that...

[Stormsfury]

My landfall call between Charleston and Georgetown looking much better and better ... the winds on the western side drop off dramatically away from the center, so I busted on that ... The eye is 35 miles SSE of Charleston, SC, and only about 60 miles SSE of this location ... a more organized storm would be producing tropical storm force (or hurricane force gusts in larger storms-like Floyd which was at its closest point, 100 miles EAST) ...

Hurricane Charley Intermediate Advisory Number 21a

Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on August 14, 2004

...Charley nears South Carolina coast...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from north of Altamaha Sound
Georgia to the North Carolina/Virginia state line including the
Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the North
Carolina/Virginia state line to Sandy Hook New Jersey including all
of the tidal Potomac...Chesapeake and Delaware bays.

A tropical storm watch is in effect from north of Sandy Hook to the
Merrimack River including New York Harbor and Long Island Sound.

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Charley was located
near latitude 32.3 north...longitude 79.7 west or about 35 miles
south-southeast of Charleston South Carolina.

Charley is moving toward the north-northeast near 28 mph. This
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next 24 hours. On this track...Charley will move across
the mid-Atlantic coastal states today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts mainly to
the east of the center.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115
miles mainly to the east of the center.

Minimum central pressure reported by an reconnaissance plane was
993 mb...29.32 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 ft is expected along portions of the
south and North Carolina coasts near and to the east of where the
center of Charley crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 3 to
5 feet is expected in the remainder of the Hurricane Warning area.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely along the path of
Charley across portions of the eastern United States. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal south and
North Carolina.

Repeating the 8 am EDT position...32.3 N... 79.7 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 28 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 85 mph. Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila/Lawrence

$$

[Carolina_survivor]

Could you provide a little help regarding timing of the storm? My husband is at work in Wilson, NC; I'm at home near Williamston (between Williamston and Washington, NC).

I'm supposed to call him to come home before it gets too rough for him to drive. What time do you think the worst will be heading our way?

Appreciate any estimates you could give me.

Thanks,

Joy

[Brent]

Could you provide a little help regarding timing of the storm? My husband is at work in Wilson, NC; I'm at home near Williamston (between Williamston and Washington, NC).

I'm supposed to call him to come home before it gets too rough for him to drive. What time do you think the worst will be heading our way?

Appreciate any estimates you could give me.

Thanks,

Joy

Within the next 1-2 hours. Once the eye passes to your west, the conditions will improve rapidly. Intense rainbands are just south of you and moving north quickly. Probably will be some gusts to near hurricane force.

[Carolina_survivor]

Thank you -- I'll pass the message along to him.

We're in the middle of one of those intense rain bands at the moment. Not terribly windy yet, but it looks as if we will be on the worst side when it does come through.

For anyone interested -- conditions in Daytona, well actually Ormond Beach just north of Daytona -- a number of trees down in my mother- and father-in-laws' neighborhood. Tree fell on the house next to them. structural damage to a lot of the homes.

[Brent]

Wait a minute...

your in Williamston, I thought it said WILMINGTON(sorry, I've been so busy lately). Conditions are starting to worsen now, but will really get bad probably 12-2pm as the "center" passes near Raleigh. It will be quick, and once it passes, it will be over.

[wlfpack81]

Was just thinking maybe it'd be a better idea to have one thread where all could post damage info for Florida. Maybe the mods could make this as a sticky at the top of the board. Of course mods feel free to delete this thread if you think it's a bad idea.

[ncweatherwizard]

Well, conditions won't get any better than they already are, b/c of rainbands, but you can expect the center to pass just to your west about 3 to 5PM, depending on acceleration.

[wlfpack81]

Like the damage thread figured it'd be a good idea to have one thread where we can post the updates on the number hurt or dead from Charley in Florida. Sadly it looks like the toll is going to go up over the next few days so it'd be nice to have a centralized thread so people won't have to go around looking at 5 different threads on this subject. Again a sticky seems like a good idea but if the mods don't like this idea feel free to delete this thread.

[Guest]

FOLKS

this happens in nearly all cases with East coast hurricane -- what is happening Now is what we saw with GLORIA and BOB and FLOYD...

as I said would happen ... the WESTERN side of charley is GONE -- its SUNNY and breezy .... the entire shape of the syustem is COMMA shape and the surafce data is showing cold front and warms... Chalrey is NO longer tropical and its a a Big ol Gale center ...


Geoergtown SC east winds GUSTING to 50
MYR has no winds over . Keeping Hurricane status by TPC is ther wriong thing to do here...

[Guest]

Its media hype and it is over RDU wont see winds ov r 30 mph and FAY wont see winds over 55/... ONLY the Outer bansk will get hit hard and not as hard as ALEX

Not even close to SIGNIFICANT damage .... FLOYD caused significant dameg so did FRAN so did Isabel ... so did HUGO in 1989

Not even close

Of course, not nearly as much as in Florida. But inland, these winds will bring the trees down...power WILL go out--I'm telling people in my part of the state to be prepared to see something similar to Isabel, except lasting a shorter period of time. Will be interesting, since the center will also go through the Hampton Roads cities late this afternoon into early evening.

Forecast 11:

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... arley.html

Speed is finally set. There's practically no error in this forecast unless the storm moves a little faster--now watch now that I said that...

[Brent]

Hurricane Charley Advisory Number 22

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 14, 2004

...Charley on the coast near South Carolina/North Carolina border...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from the South Santee River
South Carolina northward to the North Carolina/Virginia state line
including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...the tidal Potomac...
Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay. At 11 am EDT...hurricane warnings
are discontinued south of the South Santee River.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from the North
Carolina/Virginia state line northward to Sandy Hook New Jersey
including all of the tidal Potomac...Chesapeake and Delaware bays.

At 11 am EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning is extended northward from
Sandy Hook to the Merrimack River Massachusetts including New York
Harbor and Long Island Sound.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Charley was located
near latitude 33.2 north...longitude 79.0 west or about 35 miles
south of Myrtle Beach South Carolina.

Charley is moving toward the north-northeast near 28 mph and this
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours...moving
Charley along and just inland from the central and northeast U.S.
Atlantic coast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km...primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels is
expected today along portions of the North Carolina coast and 2 to
3 feet above normal elsewhere along portions of the northeast U.S.
Coast during the next 24 hours.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are likely along the path of
Charley across the coastal sections of the eastern United States.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal south and
North Carolina.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...33.2 N... 79.0 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 28 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.

Forecaster Lawrence

[Stephanie]

It does look like a potential Nor-easter to my area and not a tropical storm on the radar.

[Bluefrog]

Just heard on FOXNEWS from an official that confirmed DOA is at 200 people.

[Wannabewxman79]

I am in Leland, right outside of Wilmington and there is no wind blowing right now at all.

[Carolina_survivor]

Thanks everyone.

Looks like the storm center will head right over his pathway home. Better get him moving in this direction.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Man I'm ready to rumble

Isabel turned out to be minor here last year, but I think Charley's gonna provide an exciting day