Ivan Advisories

[Skywatch_NC]

Regarding the destruction in Grenada...don't know if anyone else has heard this or posted about it...but this morning on TWC I heard that a prison was destroyed and inmates are now loose in that country because of what happened!

So the poor folks (survivors) who lost their homes and businesses, etc., now have these convicts to worry about, too!

Of course some of the imprisoned probably died, too.

Eric

[adelphi_sky]

I voted yes for the simple fact that if Ivan hits FL as a cat. 4, then travels up through the Carolinas, it will complete whatever desruction Charley and Frances didn't do as well as dup copious amounts of rain over a region that has seen a years worth of rain already. So you have Grenada, Jamaica, Cuba, then FL through the Carolinas. That's epic if you ask me.

[Innotech]

Grenada is practically gone. 'd have to say Ivan is indeed an epic disaster, and the more it eats, the more its memory will linger in history books

[GalvestonDuck]

Regarding the destruction in Grenada...don't know if anyone else has heard this or posted about it...but this morning on TWC I heard that a prison was destroyed and inmates are now loose in that country because of what happened!

So the poor folks (survivors) who lost their homes and businesses, etc., now have these convicts to worry about, too!

Of course some of the imprisoned probably died, too.

Eric

I read that people are trying to protect themselves from looters carrying machetes. I'd hate to think what kinds of weapons the prisoners might get.

[chadtm80]

Please...I realize the trend these days is to take each model and compare it to the last run of the same model and conclude city x, y or z is going to get hit.

ALL we know for sure is that some place in FL is going to feel a direct impact from Ivan...as has been indicated for DAYS. Even the all of a sudden super popular CMC model is starting to show the N hook that the other models have been showing (seems like the best model for folks to use is the one that supports their idea of where the storm is going) to the east of 85W.

The evolution of the pattern...and the shape of Florida...make it IMPOSSIBLE to determine a specific threat at this time.

Please feel free to take your best guess...because all of this is going to happen in 3 to 4 days. But...hopefully anyone in Florida reading this realizes that all we have right now is a BEST GUESS and not an absolute solution. Anyone can pick a model and support a landfall at this time.

MW

So care to throw out one of those guesses??

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL has 130kts in the pics as you put the mouse there.

[tallbunch]

or would it push North east after landfall?

I thought yesterday that there was no WAY I would feel the effects from Ivan by the forecast has it going to tampa, to jacksonville, straight up the GA/SC/NC coast......

[chadtm80]

Yes fluctuated down a bit, however it seems to be back on the upward trend once again.. So we shall see

[Hurricane Cheese]

deep reds on IR and deep purple on WV are coming back in recent frames.....hardly a sign of significant weakening

[Josephine96]

may go on and off cat 5 status

[Sanibel]

Probability dictates two majors passing over you in a season unlikely.


Current:


Ivan is close to NHC track. That is enough for me to consider that we should go to hurricane preparation starting now.


I've had to rip out the roof patching job I did yesterday because it didn't seal completely and caused more problems than it solved. The patch was effective enough to pool water on the outside that then flowed under the sheet metal roofing. We started to have dripping wetness on the underside of the attic plywood from just a 5 minute rain. Not good. A real tropical storm would cause serious damage if I didn't fix it, so I ripped it all out and got waterproof roof caulking. Don't use the injectable foam, it doesn't completely seal.

Ivan could miss us but we are too far inside the probable strike to not being going into preparation mode. He's a bad bubble floating up towards us.

Our local weatherman was not committed - but visibly uptight...

[cycloneye]

Yes it may weaken a little now but it well go more strong in the next few hours as fluctuations will occur and eyewall replacement cycles happen.

[BReb]

check out this map of Jamaica- the capital is right on the SE coast. Wonder if that small peninsula in front of it will provide much protection.

http://www.fantasyisle.com/map.htm

Regardless, you've got to wonder why they built the capital city on the most vulnerable part of the island- Cuba was smart enough to have Havana on the northern part of the island.

[deadcities]

Jamaica survived Gilbert, and Gilbert was stronger than Ivan. It wasn't pretty, but they survived.

[canegrl04]

Yep.Ivan is just taking alittle rest before he muscles up again

[Josephine96]

I think if it enters on the West.. it'll exit on the east.. I don't know about riding up the coast though

[calidoug]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It's been getting stronger again for the past few hours.

I suspect they'll leave it at CAT5, unless recon proves otherwise.

[Cape Verde]

I believe Gilbert was a Cat 3 storm when he hit Jamaica.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Gilbert was WEAKER than Ivan AT THE TIME it hit Jamaica. It was a Cat 3 when it hit Jamaica.


Gilbert then grew to a Cat 5 AFTER passing over Jamaica...

[sunny]

Jamaica survived Gilbert, and Gilbert was stronger than Ivan. It wasn't pretty, but they survived.

I thought Gilbert was a 3 when he passed over Jamaica.