Ivan Advisories

[wxwatcher2]

After Charley and Frances,
I'm actually in denial that Ivan even exists.

(the drugs are finally working)

[Brent]

Possible. Charley did it, but hit south of Tampa.

[canegrl04]

What a shame.Jamaica has insane morons for authority

[vbhoutex]

I don't know a whole lot about Jamaica, but I would imagine that they are somewhat prepared for the contingencies that are associated with a hit by a hurricane, meaning they probably have good strong designated shelters that citizens can go to that are at least somewhat stocked with essentials. I would not even start to belittle the scope of the possible disaster that could be unfolding in Jamaica. Even if I lived there and knew whether my suppositions were correct or not I would be $%^*&ing my drawers about right now and looking for the strongest structure on the island. As said though, they did get through Gilbert so they should be able to get through Ivan, although a lot worse for the wear. I really do doubt the hundreds of deaths. The people of Jamaica have been through many hurricanes, although not a lot of CAT5's, and they do know what to do.

Meanwhile, we pray for everyone's safety.

[jagesq]

For those of you who have been to Jamaica you know that it is a dangerous place. A general sense of lawlessness abounds, and police and military presence is either non-existant or corrupt in many areas of the country. Seeing the extent of looting that is occurring here in Florida after Frances, I can only wonder what will happen once Ivan passes through.

[rbaker]

I don't personally aspect Ivan to be as strong as it is now or a cat 4 for several reasons. Some shearing from the sw will be more evident than Charley, ssts are still plenty warm, but we just had frances come through very slowly with alot of cloud coverage. In fact Clearwater Bch had a 82 degree water temp when last wk late it was 87. And some interaction with land if it goes up coast could possibly cut it down some. But even with a cat 2 or 3 up the coast would be storm surge plus.

[Cape Verde]

It's extortion, but I'm not sure it matters. Everyone in Jamaica should know by now that a hurricane is coming tomorrow. After it hits, there's not going to be any power, and the mets are going to be seeking cover just like everyone else.

[cycloneye]

Powerful hurricane Ivan continues to move WNW 295 this afternoon as a cat 5 hurricane.Fluctuations will occur and Ivan may drop to a cat 4 but then after eyewall replacement cycles it may well get to cat 5 status several times in the period before making landfall somewhere in Cuba.About a long range forecast I say that Ivan will have a greater probability to make landfall in the west coast of Florida however it is early in the ballgame to pinpoint a landfalling area in specific.But all interests in the western caribbean and in the gulf coast east of Texas should pay veryclose attention to the progress of powerful hurricane Ivan.

Elsewhere in the atlantiv:

TD#10 continues to move eastnortheastward and conditions are not favorable for the system to intensify into a tropical storm due to cooler waters.

Tropical waves are moving thru the tropical atlantic westward but no favorable conditions at this time for them to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Disclaimer=This product is not official.THe official source is the National Hurricane Center.

Forecaster=Luis Martinez (Cycloneye)

[Josephine96]

I do think he could still be a Cat 4.. waters are plenty warm.. and Charley exploded as a result of those waters

[BigO]

Those meteorologists are being absolutely selfish. They are also being completely thoughtless. There is a Category 5 hurricane that could hit Jamaica as a strong Category 4! (Although I think Allen was a cat5 when he moved past Jamaica)

They'd prefer to argue over a few days of wages from February instead of try to protect millions of innocent lives in their own country?!

This sounds like a form of bribery.

Legally, I think it is known as extortion.

[GulfHills]

Thank you so much Catz. I called my husband and he is taking vacation days next week just in case. Very nice of you to offer. Were you living here when Kate came through? She was a cat 2 and did so much damage, I remember most of Tallahassee without electricity for 10 days.......... Let's hope this one isn't going to come our way.

[Jetman]

latest recon: min pressure 921 mb and max fl wind 144 kt

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

URNT12 KNHC 091837
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1837Z
B. 14 DEG 44 MIN N
   71 DEG 57 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2390 M
D. 110 KT
E. 074 DEG 009 NM
F. 166 DEG 144 KT
G. 072 DEG 007 NM
H. 921 MB
I. 9 C/ 3069 M
J. 18 C/ 3035 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/0.5 NM
P. AF977 1109A IVAN OB 03
   MAX FL WIND 144 KT NE QUAD 1835Z.

[Josephine96]

It sounds like extortion too

[Brent]

URNT12 KNHC 091837
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1837Z
B. 14 DEG 44 MIN N
71 DEG 57 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2390 M
D. 110 KT
E. 074 DEG 009 NM
F. 166 DEG 144 KT
G. 072 DEG 007 NM
H. 921 MB
I. 9 C/ 3069 M
J. 18 C/ 3035 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/0.5 NM
P. AF977 1109A IVAN OB 03
MAX FL WIND 144 KT NE QUAD 1835Z.

[Matthew5]

It will stay a cat5 by the way that Pressure has droped!

[cycloneye]

Will it stay cat 5?

[GulfHills]

Unbelievable!

[Brent]

Well... winds don't really support it but the pressure drop might. 144 kt with a 90% reduction is 130 kt(150 mph).

[x-y-no]

Now it says "closed wall" with a slightly smaller eye. So whatever happened before, it wasn't an ERC, but just some anomaly.