Ivan Advisories

#2441 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:38 pm

x-y-no wrote:According to the NHC 5pm discussion, he's moving at 300.

Not real sure why they said that. Since 5 this morning he's been moving on a 293. Also a 293 b/w the last 2 advisories. So..rounded up it is a 295.

#2442 Postby **Mattie** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:38 pm

I'm fixing to make a post that I hate seeing the most - but in this case, it's warranted - "OMG"

#2443 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:38 pm

"That city that Charley hit" was Punta Gorda

#2444 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:39 pm

I think Frances' ERCs had more to do w/ some slightly drier air being entrained. This storm has had no breaks in the deep convection surrounding the eye, whereas Frances did quite a bit. This is just an opinion, and it would be hard to prove w/o doing an actual modeling study.

greeng13 · #2445 Postby **greeng13** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:41 pm

air force met...

as i have kind of picked up here in the past week or so...surface winds can then be reduced from that (or a certain percentage taken from the flight level winds) is that correct?

#2446 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:41 pm

Would'nt S.C. get more effects, than if it hit Central Fl.?

southerngale · #2447 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:41 pm

Derek may be a great forecaster but if you live in Miami, don't NOT make preparations because he isn't. Everyone in the potential path should prepare.

Derek Ortt · #2448 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:41 pm

If it hits Kingston, it may resemble the unthinkable... Darwin on Chrstmas day in 1974 after Tracy. if anyone ever has a chance to look at the damage, it makes Charley and Andrew seem almost insignificant as nothing seemed to stand at all after Tracy. All photos I have seen showed the entire city completely destroyed

#2449 Postby **Stephanie** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:43 pm

TWC showed a reporter at a resort in Kingston and panned over to guests that were stuck in Jamaica because they couldn't get a flight out, sitting at a bar. That's probably what I'd be doing as well if I were in their situation. I feel so bad for the visitors and the residents of Jamaica!

#2450 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:43 pm

That's a good point southerngale....Mayor Penelas held a news conference here about an hour or less ago, and he stressed that now is the time to make your preparations....restock things you've used, etc. Now, the problem with that is that supplies are hard to come by....However, that difficulty aside, all the local stations down here are telling residents to prepare now while there's time and good weather.

TropicalJen · #2451 Postby **TropicalJen** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:44 pm

How important is "stadium effect" when referring to the structure of the hurricane, my met has been referring and focussing on this in his forcasting a Near tampa landfall

#2452 Postby **msbee** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:45 pm

A list of supplies will be published on the CDERA website at http://www.cdera.org and
pledges can be made online as of Friday September 10, 2004.

Cash donations are also being accepted. CDERA has opened the Hurricane Ivan
Assistance Fund account at all FirstCaribbean International Banks across the
region. The accounts available so far are listed below. More will be added
tomorrow.

1. Antigua: 106370878
2. Bahamas, The: 200153039
3. BVI: 2345133338
4. Barbados: C/A# 1000398510
5. Cayman Islands: KYD #10031590
6. Dominica: 106371157
7. Saint Lucia: 106371256
8. St Vincent and the Grenadines: 106371165

For residents in the United States, please coordinate all donations through the
Grenada Embassy:
1701 New Hampshire Ave., NW,
Washington DC 20009
Tel: (202) 265-2561
Fax: (202) 265-2468

#2453 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:45 pm

Stephanie - that's unreal! They interviewed people here at Miami International that were boarding flights TO Jamaica (for vacays, etc. not just because it's their home - there were a few of those too). Now THOSE are the people that I really worry about!!!!!

Nimbus · #2454 Postby **Nimbus** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:46 pm

Aren't we due for a slightly more westward trochoidal wobble soon? An eyewall even 20 miles off the coast would help reduce the destruction.

btsgmdad · #2455 Postby **btsgmdad** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:46 pm

The stadium effect is usually a tell-tale sign of a very intense hurricane.

canegrl04 · #2456 Postby **canegrl04** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:46 pm

Wasn't Ivan up to 923mb at 2pm?

x-y-no · #2457 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:47 pm

Nimbus wrote:Aren't we due for a slightly more westward trochoidal wobble soon? An eyewall even 20 miles off the coast would help reduce the destruction.

The wobbles have been there, just really small lately.

Fire in the Sky · #2458 Postby **Fire in the Sky** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:47 pm

The way it brushed along the Venezuelan coastline, I wouldn't be surprised to hear of further reports. Assuming it keeps the current track, and relative strength (Cat 4 or larger), Jamaica is going to be a mess also. If DR is getting major waves now, it's only going to continue along those coastal area until Ivan's wake clears.

Many prayers for all of you in the path of Ivan and those already impacted.

Mark

wxwatcher2 · #2459 Postby **wxwatcher2** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:48 pm

Well, if you're going to be stuck in the middle of a Cat 4/5 you might as well stock up at the bar !!

Then, find a secure place and hunker down.

Good luck Jamaica...!!

#2460 Postby **simplykristi** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:48 pm

I pray for the people of Jamaica! It is not looking good for them.

Kristi

Ivan Advisories

IF Ivan hits the Panhandle........

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