Frances Advisories

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cycloneye
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8 PM Frances=19.6n-60.7w,west at 14 mph

#2441 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:02 pm

If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT21 data were found.
** WTNT31 KNHC 302359 ***
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST MON AUG 30 2004

...FRANCES CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AS A STRONG CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS...ST. EUSTATIUS AND SABA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THIS WATCH TO A WARNING LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA
...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST JOHN AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CROIX. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LATER TONIGHT.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES
...305 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
THE OUTER BANDS OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE ISLANDS IN A
FEW HOURS.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REMAINED NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 180 MILES...290 KM.

THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS ESTIMATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...19.6 N... 60.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.
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msbee
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#2442 Postby msbee » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:03 pm

thanks Luis
I will surely do that as long as my internet stays up.
Good luck yourself as she brushes pass you
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#2443 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:03 pm

The only things I ever smoke is ham or turkey :P
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kevin

#2444 Postby kevin » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:04 pm

I see what you all thought you saw. Until there is a huge eye, I am not even the least bit sold on it.
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#2445 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:05 pm

If she is going under an eyewall replacement cycle now, she will weaken first, than once it's done, you will see the eye clear out, then strenghtening can take place. You all getting excited over something you don't understand.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2446 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:05 pm

Computer glitch? You posted 3 times. LOL :lol:
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#2447 Postby mf_dolphin » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:05 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:That is dry air entrainment and a collapse of convection, NOT the formation of a new eye. No GIANT eye is going to be forming soon. If anything, this will weaken her for a bit.


Eyewall replacement I can buy but I see no evidence of dry air entrainment.
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Re: Eye...Explosion

#2448 Postby Janie34 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:05 pm

LowMug wrote:The eye is clearing out right now...the diameter is going to be huge and this puppy is about to explode...


That can't be good for a puppy.
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#2449 Postby msbee » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:06 pm

well, she hasn't made it to 20 north yet, but she's getitng close
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#2450 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:09 pm

Yes Brent a glitch.

Getting close to that important 20.0n line.
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logybogy

What is going on with Frances? double eye wall forming?

#2451 Postby logybogy » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:09 pm

What is that a bigger eye wall forming to the west of the smaller eye wall?

Image

Image
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lilbump3000
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#2452 Postby lilbump3000 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:10 pm

To me looks like she will make it to the 20N close to the 65W.
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#2453 Postby simplykristi » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:11 pm

Stay saffe!!!!

Kristi
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#2454 Postby B-Bear » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:12 pm

Oh great, now PETA is going to jump in the fray.
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#2455 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:15 pm

Its lookin li ke crap! What's going on? ANOTHER replacement cycle? It makes no sense for it to look this bad because the pressure has been dropping all day.

Pro-Met's any opinions?
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LowMug

#2456 Postby LowMug » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:30 pm

Thunder44 wrote:If she is going under an eyewall replacement cycle now, she will weaken first, than once it's done, you will see the eye clear out, then strenghtening can take place. You all getting excited over something you don't understand.


That is funny...because that is what I was saying...an eyewall replacement cycle requires the eye to clear out...CORRECT...now what is it that I don't understand

She is obviously not ragged at this point with a pressure of 945 mb...
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#2457 Postby KeyLargoDave » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:32 pm

I noticed that, it seemed to appear in the visible satellite loop when it changes to infrared -- difference between what the vis and IR sensors see?

It's scary in any case.
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#2458 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:32 pm

This might reflect that she is adjusting to the ridge and moving more westward.The West eye may be the real one.
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#2459 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:35 pm

Doubt that canegrl... Hurricanes do not "relocate" the eye or "re-develop" it in another location
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#2460 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 7:37 pm

Well,I gave it a shot,anyway :oops:
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