Frances Advisories

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040831 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040831 0000 040831 1200 040901 0000 040901 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.6N 60.7W 20.3N 63.6W 21.3N 66.6W 22.5N 69.5W
BAMM 19.6N 60.7W 20.0N 63.3W 20.7N 65.8W 21.7N 68.4W
A98E 19.6N 60.7W 20.1N 63.3W 20.9N 65.9W 21.9N 68.5W
LBAR 19.6N 60.7W 20.1N 63.5W 20.8N 66.2W 21.6N 68.9W
SHIP 110KTS 115KTS 121KTS 126KTS
DSHP 110KTS 115KTS 121KTS 126KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040902 0000 040903 0000 040904 0000 040905 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.7N 72.0W 25.8N 75.7W 27.5N 78.4W 28.9N 80.4W
BAMM 22.8N 70.7W 25.0N 74.6W 27.1N 77.9W 28.2N 81.0W
A98E 22.8N 71.2W 24.8N 75.9W 26.3N 79.8W 26.4N 82.9W
LBAR 22.5N 71.5W 23.9N 76.2W 26.0N 79.0W 28.4N 81.0W
SHIP 130KTS 126KTS 120KTS 107KTS
DSHP 130KTS 126KTS 120KTS 107KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.6N LONCUR = 60.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 19.2N LONM12 = 58.1W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 18.8N LONM24 = 55.8W
WNDCUR = 110KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 105KT
CENPRS = 945MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 130NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 150NM

[chris_fit]

still shiftin south/west i can speculate :-/

[chris_fit]

looks are deceiving... im puzzled too....

as all day it showed signs of strengthening... and now this.. ????

[PurdueWx80]

Notice both intensity models take her to 130 kt in 48 hours...much stronger than they have been up to this point.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

remember, this is subject to 450 mile error, so use with extreme caution, just as the forecast syays to

[Innotech]

it looks like an eyewall replacement cycle, which the drop in pressure could also have attributed to

[weatherfsu]

It looks like some dry air got caught up in there somehow. I can't say that I have seen this a lot but I have seen it happen before.

[tallbunch]

so is it saying that it can hit fl, ride the coast and be oushed to the carolinas?

[Derek Ortt]

graphics very soon

[LaBreeze]

Exactly Innotech, Louisiana should be protected and safe.

[Matthew5]

I how there was a large eye wall awhile ago but now it seems to be taken in some dry air?

[Anonymous]

What dry air? No dry air is being entrained into this system, its outflow is brilliant and it is very symmetrical.
Folks its an eye wall replacement cycle.

[Anonymous]

What dry air? No dry air is being entrained into this system, its outflow is brilliant and it is very symmetrical.
Folks its an eye wall replacement cycle.

[LaBreeze]

Exactly Innotech, Louisiana should be protected and safe.

[Innotech]

that would have to be an incredible amount of dry air, and it would affect her structure far more than just a hole in the center I would htink. It looksl ike htat is a larger diameter eye that is replacing the smaller one that has been closed off for a while. It COULD be dry air though, so Im not counting that out completely.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html

[B-Bear]

What dry air? No dry air is being entrained into this system, its outflow is brilliant and it is very symmetrical.
Folks its an eye wall replacement cycle.

I'm not saying I disagree with you, but that would be rather bizzare, and perhaps a little frightening, since she just got finished going through an eyewall recycling.

[Cyclone Runner]

The Bahamas start to prepare in what could be a very bad week in country's history.

Why do all the possible scenarios that the Weather Channel shows in its Tropical Updates show Frances exactly on top of Nassau??????? Can't we have some good news ?????

Ok, well, it seems things are changing. Everything now points as if we're going to get a direct hit. They're talking about a category 4 hurricane by the time it reaches us, which is actually better news than having to fear a category 5... (we'll keep enjoying every little bit of what's good to think about it...)

Advice: you should keep watching the Tropical Update on the Weather Channel (Channel 45 here in Nassau), every hour 10 minutes before the hour, SHARP
 
It remains a good source of information.

Earlier this evening, as we were watching the Bahamian news (yes, we do that sometimes...), they now start to worry. A list of public shelters has been issued; I'll try to find a link for you where you can find all that info. 

Whatever may happen now, it's seriously time to get ready. We've ordered some sheets of plyboard today, to better protect our house. We actually face the ocean badly where we're located, and that's our biggest concern. (Maybe we'll get some nice fresh groupers in the pool by the time it's gone... yumee!!!)

Keep looking at the links I provided earlier in these reports; things are changing quickly right now.

We believe that by wednesday noon, everything will be much more precise for us down here. But IT IS TIME TO START GETTING READY!!!!

We'll keep you updated as much as possible; tomorrow I'll try to get better information from the government / local authorities.

Also, still no correspondant from other bahamian islands than us here in Nassau. It'll be good to hear from other sources to know what's happening elsewhere. In case you can provide some info, send me an e-mail to stolidref@yahoo.fr; I'll post your infos on this post.

Take care, talk to you later

APCEDI
http://www.afap.org/apcedi

[Lowpressure]

With outflow that impressive you would expect to see a stadium eye structure thie is very odd looking. It does look like a dry slot, somehow.

[weatherFrEaK]

Frances is doing just fine. Tomorrow you will see a big doughnut hole of an eye, and Frances possibly transition to an annular hurricane.