Ivan Advisories

[air360]

so ..assuming it is slowing...just for a moment lets pretend we know for sure it is slowing...

would that mean it could be about to turn more north?
Would that make the turn sooner than expected?
Would that have a rather "large" impact on the future forecast of the storm?

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

so ..assuming it is slowing...just for a moment lets pretend we know for sure it is slowing...

would that mean it could be about to turn more north?
Would that make the turn sooner than expected?
Would that have a rather "large" impact on the future forecast of the storm?

<anxiously waiting for an answer>

[WeatherEmperor]

You are absolutely right Mike. Given the information your provided and double checked for myself I do agree that Ivan has slowed down. Just exactly what that means remains to be seen

<RICKY>

[flair]

i dont see why the track was shifted so far west at 5

because avila and stewart have a cat n mouse game going...they are honing on a track as usual...this is tough arse forecast beyond 48 hours especially if those steering currents collapse as they probably will

Avila-"Hmm, let's see. The GFDL farted, so I must hike my leg and fart, too."

Stewart will be back in the morning to clear the air. His 5 am discussions are recommended reading.

[WeatherEmperor]

i dont see why the track was shifted so far west at 5

because avila and stewart have a cat n mouse game going...they are honing on a track as usual...this is tough arse forecast beyond 48 hours especially if those steering currents collapse as they probably will

Avila-"Hmm, let's see. The GFDL farted, so I must hike my leg and fart, too."

Stewart will be back in the morning to clear the air. His 5 am discussions are recommended reading.

LOL! Oh boy that was a good laugh!

<RICKY>

[tornadowatcher]

If it hits Kingston, it may resemble the unthinkable... Darwin on Chrstmas day in 1974 after Tracy. if anyone ever has a chance to look at the damage, it makes Charley and Andrew seem almost insignificant as nothing seemed to stand at all after Tracy. All photos I have seen showed the entire city completely destroyed

Do you happen to know of any websites with good pictures of the aftermath of that storm? I can't seem to find any. Thanks

[air360]

so, weatheremperor, even though your reply was not directed towards me or my questions...i take it that what you are saying is that even if it is slowing down it still wouldnt give any answers to my questions i posted?

[Rainband]

Have respect for the NHC..

[feederband]

[Hurrikaren]

<anxiously waiting for an answer>

Ditto

[WeatherEmperor]

Have respect for the NHC..

Im sorry where were my manors?

<RICKY>

[WeatherEmperor]

so, weatheremperor, even though your reply was not directed towards me or my questions...i take it that what you are saying is that even if it is slowing down it still wouldnt give any answers to my questions i posted?

I dont know. I wasnt trying to answer your questions. Sorry. I was just agreeing with Mike.

<RICKY>

[calidoug]

Instead of praying, they should be preparing.

[Guest]

he will continue his wnw track for the next 3 days before taking a more nw turn, so his progress will be slow from here on out.

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[WeatherEmperor]

The thing that concerns me most is when and where will that eventual turn take place?

<RICKY>

[WeatherEmperor]

Welp. Here we go again.

<RICKY>

[calidoug]

Uhhh, no. The ridge is weaker now, hence the increased northerly component AND slower speed.

This is not a Frances-type setup where a ridge surrounds the storm on 3 sides.

[jlauderdal]

Cat 5 or not...the fact that Ivan is only at 69.5 now implies that the hurricane may be slowing down...in fact that position puts it about half the forward speed of the previous 4 fixes.

As coldfront mentioned in Team Speak tonight...slowing down may be suggesting a change in track.

MW

would this imply it will make it out to 85 west...just kidding.

[Dean4Storms]

I look for Ivan to make more of a west movement for the next few hours. As we saw with Frances, convection deepening on one side has a tendancy to pull the center toward it in essence. This could cause Ivan to pass south of Jamaica. We will have to wait and see.