Frances Advisories

[TampaFl]

FLUS42 KTBW 010956
HWOTBW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
553 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-011230-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
553 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN
HAZARDS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING
AREAS. SMALL STREAMS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED BANK FULL.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE STORMS.

HURRICANE FRANCES IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY FRIDAY. THE LATEST TRACK THEN MOVES
FRANCES ONSHORE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINS AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST HAZARD WITH THE SYSTEM. THERE IS
STILL GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AT THIS POINT SO STAY
ADVISED OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FRANCES APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS. RESIDENTS
SHOULD TAKE EARLY PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SUCH AS STOCKING UP ON
NON-PERISHABLES ITEMS AND CLEANING UP ANY LOOSE ITEMS OR DEBRIS IN
THEIR YARD..SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

$$




[TampaFl]

FLUS42 KTAE 011002
HWOTAE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
600 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-021000-
BAKER GA-BAY FL-BEN HILL GA-BERRIEN GA-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN GA-
CALHOUN FL-CLAY GA-COASTAL WALTON FL-COFFEE AL-COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-
DALE AL-DECATUR GA-DIXIE FL-DOUGHERTY GA-EARLY GA-FRANKLIN FL-
GADSDEN FL-GENEVA AL-GRADY GA-GULF FL-HENRY AL-HOLMES FL-HOUSTON AL-
INLAND WALTON FL-IRWIN GA-JACKSON FL-JEFFERSON FL-LAFAYETTE FL-
LANIER GA-LEE GA-LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-LOWNDES GA-MADISON FL-MILLER GA-
MITCHELL GA-QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-SEMINOLE GA-TAYLOR FL-TERRELL GA-
THOMAS GA-TIFT GA-TURNER GA-WAKULLA FL-WASHINGTON FL-WORTH GA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...ADEL...ALBANY...APALACHICOLA...
ASHBURN...BAINBRIDGE...BLAKELY...BLOUNTSTOWN...BONIFAY...CAIRO...
CALLAWAY...CAMILLA...CARRABELLE...CHIPLEY...COLQUITT...COTTONWOOD...
CRAWFORDVILLE...CROSS CITY...CUTHBERT...DALEVILLE...DAWSON...
DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...DONALSONVILLE...DOWNTOWN DOTHAN...ELBA...
ENTERPRISE...FITZGERALD...FORT GAINES...FORT RUCKER...GENEVA...
GEORGETOWN...HEADLAND...LAKELAND...LEESBURG...MADISON...MARIANNA...
MAYO...MONTICELLO...MORGAN...MOULTRIE...NASHVILLE...NEWTON...
OCILLA...OZARK...PANAMA CITY...PANAMA CITY BEACH...PELHAM...PERRY...
PORT ST. JOE...PUTNEY...QUITMAN...SANTA ROSA BEACH...ST. MARKS...
STEINHATCHEE...SYLVESTER...TALLAHASSEE...THOMASVILLE...TIFTON...
VALDOSTA AND VERNON
600 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A ISOLATED STRONG STORM
IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST BRINGS
HURRICANE FRANCES ASHORE ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA
EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE HURRICANE FOLLOWS THIS TRACK...IT COULD MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP IN MIND THE LARGE FORECAST TRACK
ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE HURRICANE FORECASTS. IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAJOR HURRICANE COULD MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE TURING TO THE NORTH. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT THE STORM WILL RECURVE TO THE NORTH BEFORE REACHING
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...AREA RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE
STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE
FRANCES BY REFERRING TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. IT WOULD ALSO BE WISE TO MAKE CERTAIN YOUR
HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS KIT IS READY..SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

$$

MAJ

[ncweatherwizard]

The end of the forecast is easy and so is the beginning--there's this little period between 24 and 48 hours that will really determine a lot. This is easily the most detailed forecast I believe, so hopefully the text will take care of any questions, etc.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ances.html

[TampaFl]

FLUS42 KMFL 011000
HWOMFL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
556 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

FLZ063-066>075-012200-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
556 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, MAINLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING,
SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HURRICANE FRANCES IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY FRIDAY. ALL PERSONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION ON FRANCES AS SHE APPROACHES THE
BAHAMAS LATER THIS WEEK. EARLY PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SUCH AS STOCKING
UP ON NON-PERISHABLES SUCH AS BATTERIES, WATER AND CANNED GOODS ARE
ENCOURAGED.
COMPREHENSIVE WEATHER FORECASTS, GRAPHICS, AND PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...


$$




[Thunder44]

[quote="jlauderdal.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THESE PLAYERS...AND NOW ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING FRANCES TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
IN 72-96H.[/quote]

Well, they are no longer in good agreement. One of things I've noticed about both runs is that really slow down Frances. So there could be more time for the trough to west to erode the ridge somewhat before the storm hits the Florida.

[TampaFl]

FLUS42 KEYW 011007
HWOEYW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
600 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-021000-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-FLORIDA
BAY-GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM-
EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF 7 MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
WEST END OF 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
WEST END OF 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM-
600 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
NEAR 12 KNOTS. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARD WILL BE DEADLY
LIGHTNING STRIKES. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOME PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT WATERS EACH DAY. PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS INCLUDE BOTH
DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS.

MAJOR HURRICANE FRANCES IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRIDAY...AND THEN APPROACH THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST ON SATURDAY. IF HURRICANE FRANCES BEHAVES
AS FORECAST...THE CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH OF THE STORM CENTER TO
THE KEYS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THE ROUGHEST SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS...WHERE STRONG AND SHIFTING BREEZES...
BUILDING SEAS...AND A POSSIBLE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CREATE
PARTICULARLY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.

FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AND YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

$$

KBK

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

that high is very unstable @ this time....(info from local met)

who is the local met.

this form this mornings tampa nws afd...doesnt sound like an ustable high to me..sounds like a building high to me.

FIRST...THE REALITY.
WHILE FRANCES CONTINUES TO MOVE AT A HEARTY CLIP (15 KT)...FASTER
THAN MOST MODELS EARLIER SUGGESTED...WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE REMNANT WEAK TROUGH IS DISSIPATING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE OTHER KEY PLAYER...A FORMER GULF OF
ALASKA TROUGH NOW EDGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW COAST...IS NOT ONLY
TAKING ITS TIME SLIPPING EAST BUT APPEARS TO BE DIGGING AS WELL.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THESE PLAYERS...AND NOW ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING FRANCES TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
IN 72-96H.

Keith Nichols

[TampaFl]

FLUS42 KJAX 010927
HWOJAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
500 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-021000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLAY-
CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-
FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-
MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
500 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS AS STORMS OVER FLORIDA TRACK TOWARDS WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND
STORMS OVER THE GEORGIA PORTION REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
EXTENDING INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. ONE OR TWO
OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
MERGE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH DAY TUESDAY...

HURRICANE FRANCIS IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH POSSIBLE EFFECTS REACHING NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IT MUST BE REMEMBERED THAT THIS IS AN
OUTLOOK AND ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD CAN AS MUCH AS
275 MILES.

WHILE IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE STORM WILL ULTIMATELY POSE A THREAT
TO THE REGION...AT THIS TIME...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT FOR LOCAL
INTERESTS TO TAKE REASONABLE PRECAUTIONS SHOULD THE STORM APPROACH.
DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO BEGIN THINKING ABOUT A PLAN AND
MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR YOURSELF AND FAMILY.

SOME SUGGESTED ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR FAMILY'S HURRICANE PLAN.
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLANS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT PATCH OF THE STORM...LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
AND EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED. PLEASE REFER TO SUBSEQUENT
SURF ZONE FORECASTS FROM THIS OFFICE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

OTHER EFFECTS TO CONSIDER SHOULD THE STORM APPROACH THE REGION
INCLUDE...HIGH TIDES...HEAVY SURF...AND LARGE BREAKERS AT INLETS
WHICH MAY ALSO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM. BEACHFRONT INTERESTS
SHOULD PLAN ON SECURING OBJECTS VULNERABLE TO SURF ACTION PRIOR TO
THE HIGH SURF DEVELOPING.

LOCAL AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS AND THE
PROGRESS OF THE STORM.OTHERWISE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION TONIGHT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

$$

[LCfromFL]

I wish this thing would make up her mind! I'm going to whine a bit (sorry!). First off, I live near Jax.....:

1) I'm on a business trip to NJ - and can't get home before Thursday night
2) I have a husband and 2 daughters in Jax - so I have to head home - there is no way I'm staying here and leaving them to ride this out
3) My dad (who lives next door to me) has metastatic cancer and has a chemo treatment today - which means he'll be VERY ill between tomorrow and Sunday (so I have to evac him and my mom)
4) My 90 year old grandmother is staying with us (she has to be cared for too)

....so evacuation planning will be a challenge.

While I really don't want Frances to wreck devastation on anyone - selfishly, I just really don't want to deal with this. So Models, PLEASE stay South! Or go waaaaaaaaaay north! This indecision is making me CRAZY.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I wish this thing would make up her mind! I'm going to whine a bit (sorry!). First off, I live near Jax.....:

1) I'm on a business trip to NJ - and can't get home before Thursday night
2) I have a husband and 2 daughters in Jax - so I have to head home - there is no way I'm staying here and leaving them to ride this out
3) My dad (who lives next door to me) has metastatic cancer and has a chemo treatment today - which means he'll be VERY ill between tomorrow and Sunday (so I have to evac him and my mom)
4) My 90 year old grandmother is staying with us (she has to be cared for too)

....so evacuation planning will be a challenge.

While I really don't want Frances to wreck devastation on anyone - selfishly, I just really don't want to deal with this. So Models, PLEASE stay South! Or go waaaaaaaaaay north! This indecision is making me CRAZY.

Sorry to hear about this.....I agree with you on the rollercoaster ride, please stay safe and GOOD LUCK!

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I wish this thing would make up her mind! I'm going to whine a bit (sorry!). First off, I live near Jax.....:

1) I'm on a business trip to NJ - and can't get home before Thursday night
2) I have a husband and 2 daughters in Jax - so I have to head home - there is no way I'm staying here and leaving them to ride this out
3) My dad (who lives next door to me) has metastatic cancer and has a chemo treatment today - which means he'll be VERY ill between tomorrow and Sunday (so I have to evac him and my mom)
4) My 90 year old grandmother is staying with us (she has to be cared for too)

....so evacuation planning will be a challenge.

While I really don't want Frances to wreck devastation on anyone - selfishly, I just really don't want to deal with this. So Models, PLEASE stay South! Or go waaaaaaaaaay north! This indecision is making me CRAZY.

Sorry to hear about this.....I agree with you on the rollercoaster ride, please stay safe and GOOD LUCK!

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I wish this thing would make up her mind! I'm going to whine a bit (sorry!). First off, I live near Jax.....:

1) I'm on a business trip to NJ - and can't get home before Thursday night
2) I have a husband and 2 daughters in Jax - so I have to head home - there is no way I'm staying here and leaving them to ride this out
3) My dad (who lives next door to me) has metastatic cancer and has a chemo treatment today - which means he'll be VERY ill between tomorrow and Sunday (so I have to evac him and my mom)
4) My 90 year old grandmother is staying with us (she has to be cared for too)

....so evacuation planning will be a challenge.

While I really don't want Frances to wreck devastation on anyone - selfishly, I just really don't want to deal with this. So Models, PLEASE stay South! Or go waaaaaaaaaay north! This indecision is making me CRAZY.

Sorry to hear about this.....I agree with you on the rollercoaster ride, please stay safe and GOOD LUCK!

[Derek Ortt]

very irresponsible news article, thats for sure

[Three Blind Mice]

New modals this morning should show if trends are fluke or if major changes coming.

Won't it just stink for the GFDL to have been right !!! Nope, there is no way..........

[Thunder44]

I wish this thing would make up her mind! I'm going to whine a bit (sorry!). First off, I live near Jax.....:

1) I'm on a business trip to NJ - and can't get home before Thursday night
2) I have a husband and 2 daughters in Jax - so I have to head home - there is no way I'm staying here and leaving them to ride this out
3) My dad (who lives next door to me) has metastatic cancer and has a chemo treatment today - which means he'll be VERY ill between tomorrow and Sunday (so I have to evac him and my mom)
4) My 90 year old grandmother is staying with us (she has to be cared for too)

....so evacuation planning will be a challenge.

While I really don't want Frances to wreck devastation on anyone - selfishly, I just really don't want to deal with this. So Models, PLEASE stay South! Or go waaaaaaaaaay north! This indecision is making me CRAZY.

It's not the storm that needs to make up her mind. It's the models that need to do so. They have been flip-flop from north to south where this storm is giong go.

[x-y-no]

I'm a little confused ...

The 5AM position was 21.2N 68.5W, yet you initialize at 21.5N 68.7W. I don't see that she's moved NNW since 5AM.

... you say:

Currently, the next trough that could reasonably weaken the Atlantic ridge is about 96 hours away from doing so--or sometime Sunday. Consequently, the Atlantic ridge will steer Frances along its current trajectory for the next 48 hours.

and then you move her a full degree north in the first 12 hours, gaining 1 degree N in 2.4 W. It took her about 3.6 degrees W to gain her last 1 degree N. That seems to be more than a slight shift north to me.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST WED SEP 01 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA AND
RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH
INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
OR 780 MILES...1260 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS....A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. WHILE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...FRANCES COULD STILL INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE BEFORE
REACHING THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...AND SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...21.4 N... 69.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

[ericinmia]

yeah... i just plotted it... and they are being generous by calling it WNW... its more just north of west.
-Eric

[cycloneye]

275 -280 movement now.

[Innotech]

its moving practically west now