Ivan Advisories

[ericinmia]

The Loop of pictures speaks a millions words... I'm too tired to explain

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/ivan.html

After the loop loads click on the NHC track...
On its current motion, including the wobbles, the eye should pass directly over the center of the island.
If anything i believe Ivan would pass slightly to the northern side of the island sparing Jamaica the worst quadrant of the storm.

The Bermuda High that was to keep Ivan more wnw over this period has been retrograding slowly over time, due to the low wraping around its southeastern periphery, disrupting the westerly steering currents above, and ahead of Ivan.
-Eric


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.GIF

[calidoug]

No, the straight line plot does NOT miss to the south.

I agree it looks like the eastern end may get it, which is very bad, because that's where the capital (and dense population) is.

[~SirCane]

Joe Bastardi is thinking along these same lines....

Take a look at Water Vapor imagery. See all that DRY air between Bermuda and the Bahamas? It's that subtripical ridge building stronger than the models currently indicate! The models weaken it-but it's actually BUILDING. Another ridge will come in and combine with the ridge in the Atlantic and help it build in even more if the ETA is correct past 72 hours. This would mean a more Westerly track than the models are showing us at this time!

This would put Ivan anywhere from Mobile, AL to Panama City. For my sake-I hope it's toward Panama City so I can be on the good side like New Orleans with Georges in 1998. Then again I could be wrong and so may Joe B. For South Florida's sake-I hope we are right. The best case would be for Ivan to pull a Mitch and unexpectedly smash into Mexico. I doubt it though.

That's my 2 cents-for what it's worth. If you pay to see Joe B's forecast-it's rather interesting!

[cape_escape]

Thank you for your insightful forecast! I live in Cape Coral, between Ft Myers and Punta Gorda, and find it eerie that you forecast Ivan to come in near Ft Myers/ Naples on the 13th, as Charley made landfall on Friday the 13th last month only 28 miles from here! I really wish I could leave the area. However, we cannot afford it! My son just moved here to be with me in March and desperatly wants to go back to Ohio until this is all over. My boss made arrangments today to fly to Atlanta, the other secretery I work with is heading for Canada, a girl next to me in the building is trading in her Toyota for a SUV in order that she can track North to Tennessee, and about every other person I've talked to has some plan for evacuation! At least I will have a heads up because you have taken the time to make it known what is possible! Thank you!

[calidoug]

Yes, it looks like the eastern end or a near miss to the N, although one has to always include the caveat that things could change-- the path could bend back more to the left, although that seems unlikely at this point.

[jagesq]

Yea best case for everybody but the poor mexicans.

[Stormcenter]

Ok. I messed the link up. Someone that can do this better than me please post it.

It's funny how no one replies to post when they refer to models taking Ivan more westward?

[calidoug]

JoeB will probably bust on this one, like everything else.

[crazycajuncane]

I guess Mexicans don't mean poop to you?

How about..... out to sea? I've seen models having it miss Flordia and out to sea.

Don't wish this 150 mph storm to go anywhere....... TO ANYONE.

I'm sorry, but it's just not right. Like many people have said.... American isn't the only land around. If it hits Mexico..... it's all good then?

[chris_fit]

lol calidoug

[bahamaswx]

I guess Mexicans don't mean Number 2 to you?

How about..... out to sea? I've seen models having it miss Flordia and out to sea.

Don't wish this 150 mph storm to go anywhere....... TO ANYONE.

I'm sorry, but it's just not right. Like many people have said.... American isn't the only land around. If it hits Mexico..... it's all good then?

Out to sea.... I guess Cuba doesn't matter to you then?

[~SirCane]

I didn't mean that. Just meant for U.S. sake.

We've had our share! Mexico has been lucky this year.

[Stormcenter]

Joe Bastardi is thinking along these same lines....

Take a look at Water Vapor imagery. See all that DRY air between Bermuda and the Bahamas? It's that subtripical ridge building stronger than the models currently indicate! The models weaken it-but it's actually BUILDING. Another ridge will come in and combine with the ridge in the Atlantic and help it build in even more if the ETA is correct past 72 hours. This would mean a more Westerly track than the models are showing us at this time!

This would put Ivan anywhere from Mobile, AL to Panama City. For my sake-I hope it's toward Panama City so I can be on the good side like New Orleans with Georges in 1998. Then again I could be wrong and so may Joe B. For South Florida's sake-I hope we are right. The best case would be for Ivan to pull a Mitch and unexpectedly smash into Mexico. I doubt it though.

That's my 2 cents-for what it's worth. If you pay to see Joe B's forecast-it's rather interesting!

Good post SirCane but unfortunately that still puts the Florida panhandle in harms way. That state can't catch a break this season.

[~SirCane]

Joe B. is right a lot. Not sure why you said that!

JoeB will probably bust on this one, like everything else.

[wxwatcher2]

How can you possibly even think it would go to Mexico looking at the steering currents etc????

It surprises me that with all the forecasting tools at our disposal, .......Hey, how about it doing a "U" turn and heading back to Africa.........?? Yea, that's the ticket....
You have to forgive me, I'm in the bulls eye of this storm and I'm quite sick of hurricane season.

Florida is in a state of shock..........I'd dial 911 if I could remember the number.....

[crazycajuncane]

I guess Mexicans don't mean Number 2 to you?

How about..... out to sea? I've seen models having it miss Flordia and out to sea.

Don't wish this 150 mph storm to go anywhere....... TO ANYONE.

I'm sorry, but it's just not right. Like many people have said.... American isn't the only land around. If it hits Mexico..... it's all good then?

Out to sea.... I guess Cuba doesn't matter to you then?

Fine.... stall out and die..... Did I name Cuba? NO! Did I name any land mass? NO!

I said out to sea. Don't try to twist my words around. I know it would "most likely have to go through Cuba" but hell the storm can turn around for all I care.

[Stormcenter]

JoeB will probably bust on this one, like everything else.

Why the negative comment on JB? The guy has a better track record than
most of us on this board.

[skysummit]

It has already destroyed Grenada, and right now poor Jamaica is in its sites. We all know it will strike again, and be powerful. After Jamaica, most likely Cuba. Huge miracles would need to occur for this not to happen. Disaster will happen, too bad it's going to begin again tomorrow.

[WeatherNLU]

JoeB will probably bust on this one, like everything else.

That's funny, and you make how much more income per year over JB as a Tropical Weather expert?

I've had plenty of beefs with JB's forecasting, but come on. He's very good at pattern recognition and certainly has had his share of good forecasts. We all blow one every now and then, that's mother nature.

[skysummit]

You have to forgive me, I'm in the bulls eye of this storm and I'm quite sick of hurricane season.

Don't hog it. Right now, everyone north of Jamaica is in the bulls eye of this storm.