Alex Advisories

[lilbump3000]

The next update is about to come really soon and we will see what he has done since then.

[dixiebreeze]

Stalled practically over the gulfstream. This is not good. I'd say at least some intensification is likely.

I think you are exactly right, abajan. If he's stuck in the gulf stream --- watch out!

[lilbump3000]

Well the new advisory has the center relocated a little bit to the south as thought. At 5 the center was at 31.7N 79.2W, now the center is at 31.5N 79.2W

[Brent]

no change at 8pm, except the pressure is down to 1009 mb. Still STATIONARY.

Guys at the NHC must be ready to pull their hair out.

[dixiebreeze]

Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 5a


Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 01, 2004



...Alex stationary...watches and warnings extended...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from South Santee River
South Carolina to Cape Hatteras North Carolina...including the
Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for north of Cape Hatteras
to Oregon Inlet North Carolina. A tropical storm watch also
remains in effect from Edisto Beach to South Santee River South
Carolina.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...Air Force reserve reconnaissance reports
indicate the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located near
latitude 31.5 north... longitude 79.2 west or about 90 miles
south-southeast of Charleston South Carolina.

Alex remains stationary. However...a slow drift toward the north or
north-northeast is expected later tonight or on Monday. On the
forecast track...the center of Alex will be slowly approaching the
south and North Carolina coasts over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...with higher gusts.
Conditions favor some slow strengthening over the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...mainly
in squalls to the south and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected in association with Alex.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...31.5 N... 79.2 W. Movement
...Stationary. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[HurricaneBill]

It's the Blue Moon tropical storm!

[HURAKAN]

During the last few hours the center has been drifting or jugging southward, which makes me believe that when the cold front comes to pick up the system it will never make landfall, which is a good news for all of those that live in the Carolinas coasts and don't want to get flooded. I may be wrong but it's looking like Alex will not make landfall.

[dixiebreeze]

Conditions at 41008 as of
(6:50 pm EDT)
2250 GMT on 08/01/2004:
Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 15.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 17.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.0 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.0 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 88.0 °F


Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
6:50 pm N ( 11 deg ) 14.6 kts
6:40 pm NNE ( 16 deg ) 14.4 kts
6:30 pm NNW ( 343 deg ) 15.2 kts
6:20 pm NW ( 321 deg ) 13.6 kts
6:10 pm NW ( 317 deg ) 11.7 kts
6:00 pm NW ( 323 deg ) 11.8 kts

[dixiebreeze]

It may drop a bit farther south before focusing on a track.

[Wnghs2007]

URNT12 KNHC 012331
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/2331Z
B. 31 DEG 27 MIN N
79 DEG 12 MIN W
C. NA
D. 50 KT
E. 133 DEG 026 NM
F. 207 DEG 45 KT
G. 132 DEG 027 NM
H. EXTRAP 1006 MB
I. 24 C/ 389 M
J. 25 C/ 370 M
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/10
O. 0.1/ 15 NM
P. AF861 0501A ALEX OB 06
MAX FL WIND 45 KT SE QUAD 2322Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.

;

[ALhurricane]

728
URNT12 KNHC 012331
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/2331Z
B. 31 DEG 27 MIN N
79 DEG 12 MIN W
C. NA
D. 50 KT
E. 133 DEG 026 NM
F. 207 DEG 45 KT
G. 132 DEG 027 NM
H. EXTRAP 1006 MB
I. 24 C/ 389 M
J. 25 C/ 370 M
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/10
O. 0.1/ 15 NM
P. AF861 0501A ALEX OB 06
MAX FL WIND 45 KT SE QUAD 2322Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.


Alex continues to look impressive this evening. Latest WV imagery showing anticyclonic flow aloft developing.

[Aquawind]

Radars looking interesting...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kjax.shtml


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kclx.shtml

[lilbump3000]

We may have a stronger tropical storm at 11 p.m.

This could indeed be our first hurricane. We will just have to wait and see.

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ALEX CENTERED NEAR 31.5N 79.2W...OR ABOUT 80 NM
SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...AT 02/0000 UTC WITH NEARLY
STATIONARY MOVEMENT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
IT APPEARS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE RELAXING SOMEWHAT OVER
ALEX AS CIRRUS OUTFLOW BEGINS TO RADIATE A LITTLE BIT MORE TO
THE N AND NE OF THE SYSTEM. A SOLID CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS
PERSISTED JUST TO THE S/SW OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE.
HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE BECOMING MORE
SYMMETRIC AS IT DETACHES FROM THE SFC TROF LOCATED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED FROM 29.5N-32N BETWEEN 78.5W-81W. RADAR IMAGERY FROM
JACKSONVILLE FL CURRENTLY SHOWS A MASS OF HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS 30
NM OFF THE COAST EXTENDING E OUT OF RADAR RANGE...WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING SWWD ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA
BORDER. FARTHER N...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ONSHORE THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

I can say that at the 11 PM advisory it will be bumped to 50 mph.

[dixiebreeze]

offshore St. Augustine, is at 29.89 and also falling with pretty good wind gusts:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 210 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 17.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.89 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.4 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 90.9 °F


Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
6:50 pm SSW ( 206 deg ) 14.4 kts
6:40 pm SSW ( 202 deg ) 15.3 kts
6:30 pm SSW ( 200 deg ) 15.2 kts
6:20 pm SSW ( 203 deg ) 15.9 kts
6:10 pm SSW ( 204 deg ) 16.1 kts
6:00 pm SSW ( 202 deg ) 14.2 kts

Am wondering about a southward shift of Alex.

[cycloneye]

I suspect Al that Alex will be bumped to 50 mph at 11PM.

[Bane]

50KT...interesting

[wx247]

Thanks for the info. Luis! It is looking much better organized this evening.

[Brent]

[rbaker]

last vis sat loop shows last of small vortex going south into the main convection area. Alot of people were writing this one off last night, because the convection had died off, and then redevolped overnight, which is common with systems like this.
Now storm is circular in apperance, but no rapid pressure falls yet.