Ivan Advisories

[WeatherNLU]

Judging by the interactive feature, it's at 15.8 and 74.1, and that's in the little bit of time since the last advisory. I don't think it's stationary or anywhere near stalled.

[southerngale]

ROFL @ your title change Purdue.
Most will be shocked he still exists.

I'm just teasing ya.

[WeatherNLU]

LOL -- Ivan still exists!!!!

[ericinmia]

Ok before i go off to bed... I'll try and explain it a tad bit better.

If you look at the isobars that were very dense over fla, through the loop... by the end when it comes to the latest image... the bars went through a period of weakening, then a little regeneration, then more weakoning...

Second... watch the center of the high in the northernwestern atlantic... it is generally moving ene slowly, and also weakening.

Here is a picture of the shear in the atlantic... the high level of sheer where the ULL (upper level low), is where its counterclockwise action is working against the the high's clockwise motion. This will have a great effect on the high's strength downstream on the flow... which is the area over the bahamas and fl.

Here is that chart:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Sorry, i am vey tired tonight. Explenations are not flowing very freely
-Eric

[ericinmia]

WHAT!!!!

Where the H e double hockey sticks did he come from? I though we nuked him, or covered him in silica, or something!
lol
-Eric

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KEYW 100700
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS. KBYX DETECTS WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE KEYS...AS WELL AS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER
THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES. ONLY ABOUT TEN
DEGREES OF WARMING IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST
SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

.FORECASTS...
FORECAST PRODUCTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY DELAYED DUE TO NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER GUIDANCE ON HURRICANE IVAN.

THE GFS NICELY DEPICTS THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH
OF THE KEYS. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE...OR PERTURBATION IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE KEYS TODAY. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF RAINFALL TODAY WILL OCCUR ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF
THE KEYS. NEAR NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE
KEYS TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES SHOULD FALL TO BELOW
ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TONIGHT. LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR TONIGHT...BUT IF THE AIR MASS IS AS DRY AS
ADVERTISED...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY SUFFICE. CYCLONIC FLOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE KEYS STARTING SATURDAY. BE THAT AS IT MAY...PWAT
VALUES SHOULD HOVER AROUND ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
SATURDAY. TIGHTENING CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
CYCLONIC FLOW TIGHTENS. THE OUTERMOST SPIRAL RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE IVAN COULD REACH THE KEYS SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY COULD
BE ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. HURRICANE IVAN
SHOULD...AND I STRESS SHOULD...MOVE NORTH THE KEYS' LATITUDE BY
MONDAY NIGHT. BE THAT AS IT MAY...THE ISLANDS COULD REMAIN IN THE
PATH OF SPIRAL RAINBANDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE IVAN. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TO NORMAL
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

&&

.MARINE...
BOAT OWNERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR CRAFT TODAY. BEGINNING AT 700 AM
THIS MORNING...BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK AND JEWFISH CREEK WILL BE
LOCKED IN THE DOWN POSITION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED
ON ALL WATERS SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE KMIA-KEYW TWEB ROUTE...AND AT THE KEYW AND KMTH ISLAND
TERMINALS. DEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED ON
EAST WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE ROUTE TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BEFORE SUNRISE
THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AFTER
15Z...EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MAINLAND AS THE SEABREEZE
FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. CUMULUS
LINES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE KEYS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 89 81 89 80 / 30 30 30 40
MARATHON 91 80 90 80 / 30 30 30 40

&&

.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/DIGITAL/FIRE...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS............FUTTERMAN



[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KMFL 100627
AFDMFL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
227 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGE OVER W ATLC AND OVER S FLA
TODAY THROUGH SAT WITH DRY MID LEVEL SUBSIDENT AIR...AND IN TURN...
PWATS BELOW NORMAL AND POPS BELOW CLIMO AS WELL. DEEP EASTERLY WIND
FLOW TODAY AND SAT WITH W COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED NEAR COAST TODAY
BUT GRADIENT INCREASE SAT ELIMINATING POSSIBILITY. EASTERLY FLOW
ENSURES NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY E COAST AND DIURNAL INTERIOR AND W TODAY
AND SAT.

SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HINGES ON IVAN FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST
FOLLOWS LATEST TRACK WITH DEGRADATION OF WEA BEGINNING SUN WITH
INCREASING WIND/POPS....PLUMMETING TO WORSE CONDITIONS MON...THEN
GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS IVAN PULLS AWAY IN THE LATTER PARTS OF THE
EXTENDED. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR MORE INFO ON IVAN.
&&

.MARINE...GRADUAL MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA BY SUN AFTN WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING TUE AND CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 88 78 / 30 20 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 87 79 / 30 20 30 40
MIAMI 90 78 89 79 / 30 20 30 40
NAPLES 92 75 91 76 / 40 20 40 40
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[ericinmia]

MONDAY COULD
BE ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS...

Thats no good...
-Eric

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTAE 100603
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
ON THURSDAY...SAW A SEA BREEZE SET UP OVER COASTAL N FL...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...WEAK BOUNDARY DID DRIFT SE
TO AROUND KCTY TO NE TO N OF KJAX. WAS FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION...
AS WELL AS RIGHT NOW SOME CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF BIG
BEND. THESE WERE DRIFTING N-NE...& MAY HAVE TO UPDATE COASTAL ZONES
FOR CHANCE OF RAIN. BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL OVER AREA TODAY &
WITH A BIT OF SEA BREEZE FORMATION...CHANCE POPS WILL BE EXPECTED.
00Z TLH SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 2.34 INCHES (SOME
CONTAMINATION FROM NEAR-BY CONVECTION)...LI OF -6...CAPE OF 2500
J/KG...& STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTH. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...A BIT
DRIER & SOUTH...A BIT MORE MOIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODELS TAKE WEAK BOUNDARY & STALL IT OVER N FL TO SOUTHERN GA
TODAY...AS WELL AS BRING SOME OMEGA LIFT OVER IT...AS SEEN IN IR
SATELLITE & RUC MODEL...ADD A BIT OF SEA BREEZE FORMATION...& NOW
EXPECT MUCH MORE POP TODAY. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LIFT &
QPF...ETA SIMILAR TREND BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. OVERNIGHT & INTO
SATURDAY THE WEAK BOUNDARY DRIFTS WEST AS THE EAST FLOW SETS UP MORE
OVER THE CWA. CHANCE POPS WILL BE NEEDED. THIS CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY
AS THE EAST FLOW BECOMES STRONGER AS HUR. IVAN MOVES CLOSER TO FL.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE SE U.S.
ALLOWING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH & WESTERN RIDGING TO
ALLOW IVAN TO MOVE TOWARD FL. OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
HUR. CENTER HAS IVAN COMING UP JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL. ON
SUNDAY EXPECTING GOOD EAST FLOW AS IVAN MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTH FL.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON MONDAY...IVAN REACHING THE FL KEYS & PROGGED TO MOVE N ALONG THE
FL WEST COAST. THIS IS SETTING UP LIKE CHARLEY...A LARGE AREA OF FL
WILL BE AFFECTED...& THE CENTER COULD COME ASHORE ANYWAY ALONG THE
WEST COAST. ALL WILL HAVE TO BE PREPARED FOR A CAT 2-3 STORM. OF
COURSE THE FORECAST IS VERY DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF IVAN. INTO
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE U.S PULLS NORTH AS THE
RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS MOVES EAST...& ALLOWS IVAN TO MOVE N-NE. MORE
RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE SEEN FOR SE U.S. THEN SURFACE TROUGHING TO
TAKE HOLD OF SE U.S. TO CWA AS IVAN MOVES NE. POPS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL & TEMPS A LOWER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS & SEAS WILL GRADUALLY COME UP AS IVAN MOVES CLOSER
TO FL OVER THE WEEKEND. 10-15 KNTS...WITH 2-4 FEET MUCH OF WEEKEND.
THEN INCREASING WITH IVAN.

&&.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES REMAIN UP. NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TLH 90 70 89 70/ 40 30 40 30
PFN 89 74 89 74/ 30 20 30 20
DHN 90 70 89 69/ 10 10 10 10
ABY 90 69 88 69/ 20 20 20 20
VLD 90 70 88 70/ 30 30 30 30
CTY 88 72 88 72/ 50 30 50 30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

&&

$$

MCT

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTBW 100602
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
202 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
STEERING IVAN PUSHING ITS WAY WEST TOWARD THE EAST COAST...AS
EVIDENT ON W/V IMAGERY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST.
FRANCES...ALONG WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH...LIES IN BETWEEN THE TWO.
FRANCES WILL PUSH OUT AND THE TWO HIGHS WILL BRIDGE NORTH OF OUR
AREA. THIS WILL SET UP A NORTH/SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD AS IVAN APPROACHES.

RESULT OF THIS GRADIENT CHANGE DAY BY DAY WILL BE LESS WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE PENETRATION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A BETTER SURGE
FROM THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. STORM CLIMO FOR THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN FAVORS BEST COVERAGE NEAR THE WEST COAST...AND CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. WILL MAKE POPS FOR SUN THE SAME AS SAT...
AN INCREASE TO 50 POPS ALONG THE COAST. PATTERN AT MID LEVELS LOOKS
FAIRLY WEAK TO START OFF...SO SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY WILL NOT
MOVE MUCH AND WILL AGGRAVATE FLOOD PRONE AREAS. WILL MENTION IN HWO.
BY SUN...THIS THREAT SHOULD BE LESSENED AS EASTERLY FLOW COMES IN
AHEAD OF IVAN AND WILL HELP TO PUSH SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP OFF TO THE
WEST.

TEMP FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT WILL NUDGE HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES SAT AS THEY SHOULD SEE LESS TSTM COVERAGE THERE.

.LONG TERM (SUN NGT-THU)...FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS STILL
HINGES ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF IVAN. LATEST NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BRING IVAN UP AND INTO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS STRENGTH OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS TIMING OF TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST CONTINUE TO CHANGE WITH EACH MODEL RUN. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS IVAN SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY IVAN
SHOULD BE NORTH AND EAST OF REGION WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS UNTIL MONDAY WITH IVAN. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
UPDATES FROM THE TPC.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TPA 88 74 89 75 / 60 20 50 20
FMY 91 74 91 75 / 50 20 50 20
GIF 90 74 90 73 / 50 20 40 20
SRQ 88 74 89 75 / 50 20 50 20
BKV 88 72 89 71 / 60 20 50 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...PRC

[NorthGaWeather]

I'm sorry but I don't see the high weakening and yes in the short term the high was still strengthening. It is right were its forecast to be and maybe stronger but its not weakening as you say and if you'll notice in the WV the high is remaining in place if anything the high is moving West.

[ericinmia]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html

The government of Cuba has decided to wait a little longer before
putting up a hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning for southeastern
Cuba.

Good ole' castro... lol

This is really nothing new...
A little track change to the east i believe.
Nogaps and FSU super... are still a little west of consensus...
They Expext Ivan to emerge from cuba as at least a Cat3!


-Eric

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KMLB 100800
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

.DISCUSSION...

...MAJOR HURRICANE IVAN HEADED FOR JAMAICA...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW WL INCREASE IN DEPTH. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WL
SEE EARLY DEVELOPMENT WITH THE BREEZE BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP FORECASTS REMAIN
HIGHER OVER THE INTERIOR VS COASTAL WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER LAKE
COUNTY DURING MID AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFTING
TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNSET. H7 FLOW WL BE SUFFICIENT TO PUSH ACTIVITY FURTHER
INLAND REDUCING HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS FROM PERSISTENT CELLS.

SAT-SUN...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY PUSHES NERN CONUS SFC
HIGH EWD...MERGING IT WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH FRESHENS THE
EASTERLIES OVER THE STATE. SUFFICIENT MEAN PWAT EXISTS FOR MID
RANGE SCT POPS...AND WILL KEEP ABOUT 10% HIGHER OVER THE INTERIOR.
SATURATED GROUND WATER CONDITIONS/CONTINUED LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
WILL MEAN ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
RAPID...LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE SAINT
JOHNS RIVER BASIN...WHICH IS BRIMMING WITH WATER THAT HAS NO PLACE
TO GO.

MON-THU...TPC TRACK GUIDANCE...NOT TO MENTION 00Z GLOBAL SUITE...
IS OMINOUS FOR FLORIDA...ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE NOT YET
CERTAIN...AFTER ABOUT H72...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT BREACH
IN THE DLM RIDGE DEVELOPING RIGHT AROUND THE LONGITUDE OF FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT ERN GOMEX. THE GFS/UKM/ECM AND GFS-BASED TROPICAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A PENINSULAR FLORIDA LANDFALL WITH THE
CNDN GEM SHIFTING EAST CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA...LEAVING THE NOGAPS
AS SOMEWHAT OF A WESTERN OUTLIER. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT...ALTHOUGH
STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM ANY POTENTIAL EFFECTS...SW/SOUTH FL IS
PRETTY MUCH BRACKETED BY GUIDANCE...AND THUS THE CWA IS LOOKING AT
PSBL EFFECTS FROM YET ANOTHER MAJOR HURRICANE. AGAIN...EXACT TRACK/
INTENSITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT WITH IVAN PASSING AS
CLOSE TO THE AREA AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...CWA MAY BE LOOKING AT
UNCHARTED TERRITORY AS FAR AS FLOODING EFFECTS ALONE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER. SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS COUPLED
WITH THE ALREADY WEAKENED STATE OF SO MANY TREES AROUND THE AREA...
AND STRUCTURES WHICH ARE ALREADY SUFFERING ROOF AND OTHER DAMAGE
WOULD ONLY MAGNIFY POTENTIAL WIND EFFECTS. WE WILL SEE HOW THIS ALL
PLAYS OUT.

STRONG TO MODERATE SW FLOW IN WAKE OF IVAN WILL MEAN AT LEAST CLIMO
POPS FOR THE AREA...ALTHOUGH SOMETIMES THESE FEATURES DRAG SORT OF A
PSEUDO FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH AS THEY MOVE NORTH...SUPPRESSING HIGHER MEAN PWAT SWD.

&&

.MARINE...FRESHENING EASTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO SCEC
LEVEL AND THEN SCA CONDS...WITH EXTENT OF DETERIORATING WIND/SEA
CONDITIONS DEPENDENT UPON EVENTUAL TRACK OF IVAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 87 75 87 73 / 40 20 40 30
MCO 90 73 90 73 / 40 20 50 20
MLB 87 76 88 74 / 30 20 40 30
VRB 88 75 88 74 / 30 20 40 30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST

[KeyLargoDave]

Thanks Eric. No go to bed.
<grins>

I must be delusional, but I'm still counting on a Charley-like track that swings far enough around the Keys to save my house. And I'm praying for enough weakening to spare Key West from complete destruction. It looks to be very close.

[ericinmia]

I'm sorry but I don't see the high weakening and yes in the short term the high was still strengthening. It is right were its forecast to be and maybe stronger but its not weakening as you say and if you'll notice in the WV the high is remaining in place if anything the high is moving West.

.... i'm lost... you can Honestly tell me that you believe it moved west... meanwhile the farthest reaching isobar for the high has moved from LA to AL, and isobar that went far over fl into the middle of the GOM and the isobar that was over generally all the peninsula, are BOTH now off the northeastern coast.
The Center of the high has gone from a very strong wound up pressure gradient to now a weaker dispersed one... that is not the high growing, or moving... it is weakening.
There is the proof for you, i am going to get a headache if i continue this any more...
Compare for yourself... first the older one, than the newer one:



-Eric

[ericinmia]

The High to the ESE of the bermuda high is called the azores high... this is an example of a strengthening high...
compare the the images... it goes from loose and weak to strong and tight...
-Eric

[KeyLargoDave]

And this comment from the discussion

The official track forecast ... shows a track over Florida
in good agreement with a consensus of the models. It remains... of
course...much too early to be very certain about the threat to
Florida.

So, we're showing a track over florida, but it's much too early to be certain about the threat to Florida? I think I get it, but don't know what regular folk will think about that wording.

[FritzPaul]

What do you think they mean by "west of Florida"?

"The NOGAPS and FSU superensemble
are further west and also show a track near Jamaica and then over
western Cuba...but then move Ivan over the Gulf to the west of
Florida. " Quote from 5am EDT discussion.

Is it western Florida (i.e. Pensacola) or west of the state of Florida?

[ericinmia]

Thanks Eric. No go to bed.
<grins>

I must be delusional, but I'm still counting on a Charley-like track that swings far enough around the Keys to save my house. And I'm praying for enough weakening to spare Key West from complete destruction. It looks to be very close.

Yeah, i seem to not be able to sleep lately... lol
I know i am going to get bashed for this, like earlier... and start another debate, but...
The trend has been to the east over the past week... don't let your guard down! A couple little wobbles, and the eye will come directly over your house, or possibly to the east which would be better for you.
Remember the worst part of the storm is the NE Quad. so for you its better for it to pass on the east... but bad for me
lol
-Eric

[ericinmia]

What do you think they mean by "west of Florida"?

"The NOGAPS and FSU superensemble
are further west and also show a track near Jamaica and then over
western Cuba...but then move Ivan over the Gulf to the west of
Florida. " Quote from 5am EDT discussion.

Is it western Florida (i.e. Pensacola) or west of the state of Florida?

The nogaps and the FSU super are taking the storm into the panhandle... possibly effecting AL. I had a thread on the bermuda high diminishing... this leads me to believe that this will be a tampa -> south east event.
-Eric


EDIT:
With the "track over fla."
They are trying to cover their asses after what happened with the tampa scare and charley. They are fairly confident in FL getting hit but from the central panahandle down to miami-dade county they are not sure right now... coincidentaly tampa is the middle ground between the two.
Don't take this forecast as the last word... i guarantee it will change later today, if not the 11am, at least the 5pm.
Every wobble counts now...
Once ivan heads northward... that will be the course, and he will stradle that longitude until northern fla.