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Deenac813
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#2881 Postby Deenac813 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:42 pm

weatherFrEaK wrote: Interesting that a special statement would be released unless there was at least speculation at NHC that this is possible.


This was my thought exactly and it has me worried! :eek:
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Roxy
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#2882 Postby Roxy » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:42 pm

THIS SLIGHT
WESTWARD JOG SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS A LONG TERM MOTION OR
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.
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#2883 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:43 pm

This is a big statement from Stewart talking about wobbles I wonder why?
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Hurricane Cheese
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Latest WV Image Shows Eye Has Reformed...Deep Purple CDO

#2884 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:43 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

She looks better than she did over the last few hours...deep purple around the eye now...eye is evident on WV
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#2885 Postby Matthew5 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:44 pm

Yes I knew it the outer eye wall is taking over. Expect Frances to regain what it losted!
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yoda
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#2886 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:45 pm

Agreed. Eye is also reappearing on IR...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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chris_fit
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NEW VORTEX 6:45

#2887 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:45 pm

URNT12 KNHC 022215
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/2112Z
B. 24 DEG 05 MIN N
74 DEG 44 MIN W
C. N/A
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 312 DEG 81 KT
G. 211 DEG 52 NM
H. EXTRAP 947 MB
I. 20 C/ 2447 M
J. 21 C/ 2451 M
K. 16 C/ N/A
L. OPEN SW
M. C30
N. 12345/NA
0. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WX06A FRANCES OB 19
MAX FLT WND 114KTS NE QUAD 2117Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM FLT LVL 8,000FT.


Nothing new in terms of pressure and intensity
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#2888 Postby ColinD » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:45 pm

"May I have your attention, please" ...

"Welcome to the greatest show on Earth" ...

"Day 10 of The Great Wobble Debates".
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#2889 Postby Deenac813 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:45 pm

What is going on with her now? I looks like the top of her is becoming flat? Does that mean she is hitting the ridge?
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hial2
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#2890 Postby hial2 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:45 pm

Might be a bobble, but the difference between this bobble and the others is that it occurred after Fran had basically stopped for a couple of hours..Hurricanes sometimes stop to turn, specially with a stronger than predicted ridge of high pressure (max Mayfield's words) to its north
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#2891 Postby btsgmdad » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:45 pm

Amen! :)
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Re: Latest WV Image Shows Eye Has Reformed...Deep Purple CDO

#2892 Postby LowMug » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:46 pm

Hurricane Cheese wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

She looks better than she did over the last few hours...deep purple around the eye now...eye is evident on WV


Also...take note of the direction the deep convection is oriented.

This could be a sign of the west to wnw movement...earlier then expected too...only time will tell
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#2893 Postby wlfpack81 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:47 pm

hurrcane_lover I'd like to know 2 things:

1) Where do you live in Fl and how much could Frances impact you if it hits cent/se-ern FL.

2) What are you reasons for saying this storm is NC bound when current water vapor loops/upper air analysis show the ridge in place and even farther sw-ward into the Gulf, not to mention all the models have it going into the Fl coast. Even the GFS which was off the last few days has the storm going into Cent Fl then up through w-ern Ga.
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#2894 Postby weatherFrEaK » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:This is a big statement from Stewart talking about wobbles I wonder why?


BULLETIN
SPECIAL FRANCES WOBBLE STATEMENT...

:lol:
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canegrl04
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#2895 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:48 pm

She looks to be on a strengthening trend again. I wouldn't rule out a near cat.5 by the time she lands :eek:
Last edited by canegrl04 on Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2896 Postby Matthew5 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:48 pm

Yes it is running into the ridge in making its turn....That is whats happing in look for the storm to regain what it losted over night.
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#2897 Postby btsgmdad » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:48 pm

Whatever weakening phase was occuring has ended. Look for this storm to potentially bomb as it heads west.
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#2898 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:48 pm

I see the WNW to W orientation. If this thing turns now folks in the Panhandle to New Orleans had better be ready. Especially Alabama to Lousiana, as it would have more time over 88 degree if it got that far west
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#2899 Postby Bane » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:48 pm

Looks like a wobble. Latest frame looks to be heading more NW again. I think it will turn WNW at some point, though.
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#2900 Postby B-Bear » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:48 pm

I'm a bit surprised by how small the eye appears though.
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