Ivan Advisories

[ColdFront77]

Another slow down during this 12 hour period:

..5:00 pm, Thurs. to ..8:00 pm, Thurs.: 24.2 miles
..8:00 pm, Thurs. to 11:00 pm, Thurs.: 39.2 miles
11:00 pm, Thurs. to ..2:00 am, .Friday: 36.0 miles
..2:00 am, Friday: to ..5:00 am, Friday: 30.0 miles

[NorthGaWeather]

The high did strengthen a bit ago there is nothing that proves that wrong. That was the point I was actually trying to get across since you claim its weakening so fast. The high is not moving NE as you claim and even in the images you posted the center of the high did move somewhat SW. The high has not weakened to the point you claim and its on track.

[ericinmia]

Nice math! thanks...

I wonder what the forward motion will be when the 11am comes out.
Most likely to be around 8-10mph
-Eric

[KeyLargoDave]

Thanks for the advice Eric.

It's all about 80W. If even the terrible Ivan is at 82 after passing Key West, I am pretty much in the clear, nearly 120 miles from the center (assuming no recurve over Miami, but even that puts the Upper Keys on the south side at least).

I'm getting out of here anyway, though there's nowhere safe to run to in this case. Homestead is looking good if we don't want to run too far. But we know where that got us in 1992.

So I'm going to run to the panhandle. Then, if necessary, New Orleans. And then, if it's still chasing me, Chicago.

[ColdFront77]

thats why coldfront is our site stats guru...makes sure there is no misunderstanding on the numbers

Nice math! thanks...

I wonder what the forward motion will be when the 11am comes out.
Most likely to be around 8-10mph

You're welcome, Eric and jlauderdal. I appreciate the interest a lot of you are showing to this information on Ivan (and other storms).


The 12 hour average speed (between 8pm and 8am) was 10.78 mph. So, I would think 8 to 10 mph would be too slow for the 8:00 am Eastern Advisory.


Ivan has moved 737.5 miles in the last 51 hours; which for the record averages out to 14.46 mph.

[ericinmia]

Thanks for the advice Eric.

It's all about 80W. If even the terrible Ivan is at 82 after passing Key West, I am pretty much in the clear, nearly 120 miles from the center (assuming no recurve over Miami, but even that puts the Upper Keys on the south side at least).

I'm getting out of here anyway, though there's nowhere safe to run to in this case. Homestead is looking good if we don't want to run too far. But we know where that got us in 1992.

So I'm going to run to the panhandle. Then, if necessary, New Orleans. And then, if it's still chasing me, Chicago.

LOL, I completely undertand... good luck! stay safe!

[Derek Ortt]

The latest supplimentary vortex shows higher FL winds, supporting 135KT, yet the winds are lowered? Did I misread the latest recon data?

[ericinmia]

I am with you on this derek... I didn't look further into it thinking I am simply too tired to get it right, and that they must have... but now i am questioning that.
-Eric

[Jetman]

see latest IR...but could be another round of EWR

[NorthGaWeather]

Recon hasn't reported any CO on the last Vortex.

[mobilebay]

The high did strengthen a bit ago there is nothing that proves that wrong. That was the point I was actually trying to get across since you claim its weakening so fast. The high is not moving NE as you claim and even in the images you posted the center of the high did move somewhat SW. The high has not weakened to the point you claim and its on track.

I agree. I don't see a bit of weakening. In fact, I see that it got stronger if anything.

[Thunder44]

Excerpt from the 5pm discussion:

REPORTS FROM AN USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS UP SEVERAL MB FROM THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND IS NOW
929 MB. THE OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS SUPPORT
ABOUT 125 KT OR LESS MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND ...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS
A LITTLE RAGGED ON THE NORTH SIDE...BUT THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY
GOING THROUGH FLUCTUATIONS.

[Derek Ortt]

he didnt look at all the recon data then and probably missed that supplimentary vortex, which woud be consistent with the early advisory time. Also, this forecaster tends to use the synoptic time data for the advisories instead of current time

[KeyLargoDave]

Ivan just took a gulp!



Odd to see at this time, isn't it? I've heard of concentric eyewalls, but what's this, no eyewall? Or just satellite illusion? Parallax?

[spaceisland]

Derek probably has it right... supplementary data not considered, winds at 8 am advisory will probably bump up again. Also, eye transformation and "raggedness" will probably not play into the next advisory.

[Doc Seminole]

Deland has been nailed by both Charley and Frances...... the ground is saturated to the max...... the St. Johns is ready to flood.... probably safe but they need to be in a room safe from falling trees that have already been weakened or which roots are clinging to already saturated ground.

[Thunder44]

354
URNT12 KNHC 100841
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/0841Z
B. 16 DEG 00 MIN N
74 DEG 13 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2486 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 045 DEG 129 KT
G. 316 DEG 12 NM
H. EXTRAP 929 MB
I. 10 C/ 3122 M
J. 17 C/ 3121 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. .1 /1 NM
P. AF866 1309A IVAN OB 19
MAX FL WIND 150 KT NE QUAD 0659Z

Should be 155mph by 8am.

[banshee]

Why is the north/right side of the hurricane more intense than the left?

[Cookiely]

Local mets are stating that they feel at this time that it will hit Sarasota as a cat 4 and track north through Hillsborouch county.This is of course subject to change.

[CountryBumpkin]

Which local mets??