Ivan Advisories

[gulfcoaster53]

Hello to all, first post. Found the site after googling for a site that posted all the models, not just NOGAPS and GFS, which I've been watching for years on the Navy site. Know that many on the boards have been feeling the same stress we are over the past month, this site is proving to be a great support group. Been watching and reading for a couple of weeks. Thanks.

Charlie had us dead on and veered. Francis missed us north. Given the analysis I've been seeing and experience as a lifelong (50 yr.) resident, it looks like this one has the central West coast in its sights. Our prayers today are with those exposed in Jamaica with a healthy helping for those coming under the gun here over the next few days. Like Jeb said yesterday, "The season will end and the storms will stop coming. " It's just getting there that seems a long way to go right now. Cheers.

[Windsong]

Derek, that's exactly what the local Met here just said. He believes the shift to the east is probable.

[feederband]

135'145,155,165 all sucks by the time it gets to my house I want it at 10mph.

[B-Bear]

I think next advisory is 135 mph. The pressure is going up.

But for how long? Will they continue to go up, or have they already started going down again?

I would not be surprised to see the hurricane actually stronger at the next advisory. It seems reasonable to me that the pressure would have gone up with an open eyewall. But Ivan has been going through an ERC, and as soon as it completes I would expect that pressure to start dropping again. Looks to me like the ERC is nearing completion.

[Downdraft]

Yes contingency plans to evacuate Central Florida Regional Hospital are already in effect. The other problem is the zoo and all the animals there.

[Hyperstorm]

Also of note, look at the movement over the past 3 hours... It has moved about 310 since then. That qualifies as NW in my books. It may be a wobble, but as of right now it's moving NW.

These wobbles will become important in regards to the final path of the storm...

[Tommedic]

Probably ERC causing same. Time will tell.

[Cookiely]

Welcome to the board. There are so many talented people on this board and the admins are great. Its the greatest support group I've seen during this stress filled time.

[Travelgirl]

Looks like west of Florida are in the clear now. All models are going to Florida.

[inotherwords]

I am just south of Sarasota by a few miles, just off Venice inlet and right across the street from the bay. I am in an evacuation zone so I'll probably do what I did with Charley and go over to a friend's in Miami as soon as I'm fairly convinced it's not headed there. The signs do point to us again, all I can say is that it missed us before when it had us in its sights, it just might again. But we'll be affected, for sure.

I really hate that we're all having to go through this drill again. We are all so weary. I have people in my guest house who lost their home in Charley, soon they'll have to evacuate my home for Ivan. It's just so sad.

[ay]

I prefer the much calmer approach of Channel 28 than either 10 or 13 in Tampa. The local channels hype the thing too much. Anyone who goes on the air telling you 4 days out where its going to hit is irresponsible. Since people are obviously repeating it, any disclaimers they may give are worthless.

[MortisFL]

I'm from Sarasota as well...watching Ivan closely...

[BirdyCin]

Hi Gulfcoaster,
my son goes to New College, and they have cancelled classes for Monday. He's on his way home to Dania today. Stay safe!

[gulfcoaster53]

Thanks for the welcomes! I know there are many in the same boat. Should be an interesting weekend and rest assured if Sr. Ivan comes, we'll stay at our "posts" as long as we have power!

[B-Bear]

Look at the trend Derek...pressure is up 4 mb in the past two hours. Also, the description of the eye has gone from a "Closed Wall: ..to "Broken Wall...Ragged and Weak in Places"

sounds like weakening trend to me

--Lou

Actually, you're not seeing a broken eyewall because the pressure is down. You're seeing the pressure down because it is a broken eyewall. Ivan is just going through an ERC, and when it finishes intensity will go back up. Look at this hurricane's history. When it first became a hurricane it had a huge drop in pressure in a very short amount of time. Then, as it worked the dry air out of its system, it again had a big burst and sudden drop in pressure. It did the same thing again yesterday. That shows me a frightening trend--that when conditions are favorable for development, Ivan will become all he can be based upon those conditions. The only thing impeding his development at this point is the ERC, so look for rapid deepening and pressure decrease as soon as he closes that eyewall.

[canegrl04]

Al Roaker on NBC Today show said that Ivan is expected to strengthen after Cuba and could be cat 5 when he makes landfall around Tampa

[Brent]

I heard him say it too, but the chances of a Cat 5 hitting Florida are just so slim. Cat 5 when it hits Cuba? Possibly, but conditions won't really be favorable for a Strong 4 or 5 in the Gulf.

[Brent]

Welcome to the boards.

Just remember: The long-range track is subject to large errors. By tomorrow and especially Sunday we should have a much better idea of where it's going.

[feederband]

[debbiet]

He looks kind of crummy right now...I for one hope this weakening trend continues despite our suspicions to the contrary.