Ivan Advisories

[clueless newbie]

I don't think it is just eyewall replacement cycle. They would have said something to reflect that, i.e. concentric eyewalls...

A straightforward eyewall replacement cycle in a healthy storm will make it look ragged in the very centre, but the outer parts will look strong.

Ivan looks rather disorganized ATT. Not that it means much, he has already been down couple of times and bounced back strong.

[Brent]

I think next advisory is 135 mph. The pressure is going up.

Actually... 934 supports a 145 mph hurricane anyway. 135 mph supports more in the mid to upper 940's range.

[B-Bear]

I heard him say it too, but the chances of a Cat 5 hitting Florida are just so slim. Cat 5 when it hits Cuba? Possibly, but conditions won't really be favorable for a Strong 4 or 5 in the Gulf.

As I see it, there's only one forecasted factor which will inhibit rapid redevelopment in the Gulf--shear.

I'm not buying it. I don't see where the shear is coming from. But I can tell you one thing for certain: If I was in this storm's path I wouldn't be risking my life in not evacuating, hoping that the NHC got the shear forecast correct.

[vortex100]

An awfully bold statement this far out. This storm may have already peaked. It could get a second wind, but what usually occurs after a storm goes through a peaking phase and multiple eyewall replacement cycles it that it momentum levels off and it usually maintains it current strength level or sees and slow decrease. I have seen this with many past hurricanes, including Gilbert, Mitch, Gloria, etc.

The most dangerous storms are like Charley, Andrew, Hugo and Camille. They hadn't reached their peak yet by landfall. They peaked right before landfall. This storm has already seen it's peak. It is not impossible for it to reach another peak, especially with low shear values and high sea surface temps ahead, but it is a rare circumstance for this to happen.

[Guest]

I would like to know what all those A to P stats represent. Is there a link somewhere that can explain this vortex thing to me? Thanks.
...Jennifer...

[scogor]

Yes, fellow boarders, I have been lurking for the past few days and trying to figure out exactly when we are leaving our home in Sarasota (less than 5 miles from the water and in a zone that is supposed to evacuate in the event of a cat 4 or greater). Have made my reservations for a hotel in Jacksonville for Monday and Tuesday nights. Stay safe everyone and let's hope something steers Ivan far to the east and away from our shell-shocked state!

[B-Bear]

An awfully bold statement this far out. This storm may have already peaked. It could get a second wind, but what usually occurs after a storm goes through a peaking phase and multiple eyewall replacement cycles it that it momentum levels off and it usually maintains it current strength level or sees and slow decrease. I have seen this with many past hurricanes, including Gilbert, Mitch, Gloria, etc.

The most dangerous storms are like Charley, Andrew, Hugo and Camille. They hadn't reached their peak yet by landfall. They peaked right before landfall. This storm has already seen it's peak. It is not impossible for it to reach another peak, especially with low shear values and high sea surface temps ahead, but it is a rare circumstance for this to happen.

True enough, but it is likewise rare for hurricanes to form below 10 degrees north latitude. And it's also rare for them to experience such rapid drops in pressure as we've seen with Ivan. I'm not discounting or even debating what you are saying, but only pointing out that unusual things happen all the time with storms. And especially, it seems, with this storm. He has already overcome a lot to get to this point at this intensity. It almost seems like he wants to be the biggest and baddest hurricane he can be.

[Brent]

I heard him say it too, but the chances of a Cat 5 hitting Florida are just so slim. Cat 5 when it hits Cuba? Possibly, but conditions won't really be favorable for a Strong 4 or 5 in the Gulf.

As I see it, there's only one forecasted factor which will inhibit rapid redevelopment in the Gulf--shear.

I'm not buying it. I don't see where the shear is coming from. But I can tell you one thing for certain: If I was in this storm's path I wouldn't be risking my life in not evacuating, hoping that the NHC got the shear forecast correct.

I didn't say not to evacuate... I just said I don't see this being a Cat 5. The odds are against it. You should take this seriously whether it's a Cat 2 or Cat 3 or a Cat 4. I don't think it's wise for forecasters to say what he did.

[x-y-no]

I would like to know what all those A to P stats represent. Is there a link somewhere that can explain this vortex thing to me? Thanks.
...Jennifer...

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/vortex.htm

[vbhoutex]

Ivan is moving into an area of high and deep heat content in the waters underneath him. More than likely, unfortuanately, the weakening we are seeing currently is probably transitory as Ivan moves into another strengthening phase that could bring him back to CAT5 strength prior to his arrival in Jamaica. Even though an ERC was not mentioned in the discussion we know they are happening and I suspect this is what is causing what I expect to be a temporary weakening. All other factors point to more strengthening to begin soon as Ivan crosses the areas around Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba. I wish this was not the case!!!!

[das8929]

I doubt a Cat 5. Maybe 130-140 mph is more reasonable.

[Derek Ortt]

might be a slight SAL intrusion.

also, a 4mb change in pressure for a hurricane of this intensity is what is expected. Near cat 5's always fluctuate

[inotherwords]

Nobody knows yet what's going to happen. At 11 pm last night, our local Fox channel meterologist was saying it would weaken to a Cat I by landfall. So nobody knows. Cat. I, cat 5, at this point it could be anything.

All I know is that I'm getting out of Dodge by Sunday.

[Windsong]

Al has a degree in communications. He is NOT a degreed Met.

[B-Bear]

I heard him say it too, but the chances of a Cat 5 hitting Florida are just so slim. Cat 5 when it hits Cuba? Possibly, but conditions won't really be favorable for a Strong 4 or 5 in the Gulf.

As I see it, there's only one forecasted factor which will inhibit rapid redevelopment in the Gulf--shear.

I'm not buying it. I don't see where the shear is coming from. But I can tell you one thing for certain: If I was in this storm's path I wouldn't be risking my life in not evacuating, hoping that the NHC got the shear forecast correct.

I didn't say not to evacuate... I just said I don't see this being a Cat 5. The odds are against it. You should take this seriously whether it's a Cat 2 or Cat 3 or a Cat 4. I don't think it's wise for forecasters to say what he did.

I didn't mean to sound like I was suggesting you said not to evacuate, Brent. I know you wouldn't say something like that. I guess I'm a little annoyed still with some of the things the NHC did yesterday. They are very openly stating they expect Ivan to weaken as he crosses Cuba and then experiences shear in the Gulf. But I have yet to hear them say where the shear is coming from. I would really like to hear that explanation. According to Derek, they appear to be basing that off the GFS, and the GFS is basing that forecast upon an unlikely scenario materializing. I don't know whether Derek is correct or not, but I sure would like to hear it explained by the NHC. Because my fear is that people in Florida--people who are already going to be reluctant to evacuate because this is the 3rd hurricane in a row and because Frances did not deliver the catastrophic wind speeds promised--are going to only hear "category 3 at landfall." If people don't evacuate because the NHC is calling for shear that is based upon faulty model forecasting--well, I think you can see what a horrific catastrophe could come to pass from it.

[Cookiely]

I'm not partial to any particular met in the area. I said previously that I still miss Roy Leep. If we're looking at the "eye of the tiger", I wish he were giving me the info. I like John Hope on the weather channel and he is no longer with us, so I will make do with what we have. Its still days away before anything is a certainty.

[EverythingIsEverything]

why is Ivan weakening...which by the way, think it is a GREAT thing that he is doing so....will this trend continue...and in an area where stregthning should be taking place instead it starting to look ragged, almost like Frances did..if the weakening trend continues what would be the explanation of this?

[Thunder44]

I've heard from met on MSNBC this morning the same thing too. But TPC forecast doesn't show this as a Cat 5 hitting Florida. A weak cat 4.

[TyphoonTim]

I think it's just an eyewall replacement cycle.

[canegrl04]

I don't think anyone should relax.Ivan could still strengthen between now and the next couple of days.Especially after he crosses Cuba