Bonnie Advisories

[wx247]

I think ive provided more then sufficient evidence to show it probably wont turn back towards the west

It is FAR too early to say whether or not this will or won't turn west, east, north, or south with any degree of confidence really... especially 72 hours and beyond.

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... 4/two.html

Another long forecast.

After 72 hours, this is a toss-up right now. Will know more in about 24 hours I'd guess. Intensity is dependent upon track, and track is dependent on forward speed, and I'd be more comfortable with the forward speed after this thing pulls together.

[wx247]

I would say the best answer is in the official forecast by the NHC. Anything can happen beyond this point and nothing is certain.

I'm still a bit skeptical with the system having a well defined LLC, so first we'll have to see if it's able to maintain itself and strengthen.

BINGO!

[Guest]

Stormchaser16 said

"FISH written all over it........ again, alot of posts about the same exact topic are showing up here......"

Well, this is the weather forum right. We have been talking about Alex for about the last 2 hundred replies. What else do you want us to talk about Storm?

[Brent]

There is a LARGE room for error on the 96 and 120 hour position. If it goes on the westernmost track it would put it over the Bahamas.

[wx247]

Right Brent... something else to realize is that we have friends on S2K in the Caribbean that are right in the path of this system. Regardless of an impact on the mainland US is the fact it looks on path to hit someplace.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Going well out there remains to be seen. But the Windward Islands and Puerto Rico might not escape this particular system. However a fast forward motion would be good relative to rainfall as a faster forward speed lessens the heavy rainfall potential. A tropical storm is definitely likely with this system and it may even become a hurricane later in the forecast as it approaches the Turks and Caicos Islands potentially. But predicting intensity and track that far out is a long way out.

Jim

[Anonymous]

Damned !!!!!!! There is a pretty strong trough forecast in the East this weekend:

You just can't win...............


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... emp_96.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_120.gif


this would not bod well for hurricane landfalls in the east early next week. Sorry...........

Unless a miracle happens

[PuertoRicoLibre]

Damn it. More uncertainty there. Bertha was a fast mover with a weird structure and yet it was a hurricane. It can happen. They better get that recon in there soon to get a more accurate picture. Girlfriend looks just like the kind of storm that can be deceiving by the nature of its looks and this could be good or bad depending on what they find in there. 48 hours is not a lot of time to prepare and everybody here is going to be surprised and unlikely to move fast enough unless it looks like it is a significant storm. And right now I just can't tell.

[Josephine96]

LOL.. It's a talkative board with these 2 systems

[Josephine96]

1 rule of thumb I've learned here in FLA.. If a storm is bookin towards us and makes it to the Bahamas and hasn't turned.. There is a high probability that it could come this way..

Not saying it will.. but it could..

[c5Camille]

all we can to at this point is monitor
all the data... and the data is just starting
to come in on this one...

[Josephine96]

True.. and welcome to the board Camille

[msbee]

of course it is too early to tell. This is the time where all we can do is wait and watch
Those of us in the islands will be waiting and watching VERY closely!

[Stormchaser16]

Alx-------- The same exact thing that i just said has been talked about by the moderators over and over again...... maybe you disagree with what the mods have to say? That seems like a brilliant idea

[Anonymous]

Yes, we all could use more rainfall. But if that trough is as strong as expected through Sunday, it probably will turn north. Time will tell.

[Dean4Storms]

It is becoming apparent that TD2 is on a westward march for now as most models already had it progged to be on a much more wnw movement by now. So, with this in mind and it's forward speed maintaining you MUST place it further west before it might respond to the ridge break-down forecasted late week and begin a more northerly turn. As it stands right now the track has to be moved further west than PR which means a likely landfall over the DR/Haiti. Keeping this in mind is the fact that this landmass would likely weaken it and slow it. I'm of the opinion it may weaken and slow it enough to cause it to miss the trough and get pinched more westward toward Florida or the Keys as the ridge builds back in next week.

[Guest]

NHc forecast track calls for TD #2 to cut through the central/northern Isles,PR & then the ever popular turn NW & North so it looks like after the islands its goin fishin.

[stormchazer]

Alx-------- The same exact thing that i just said has been talked about by the moderators over and over again...... maybe you disagree with what the mods have to say? That seems like a BRILLIANT idea

I do not think because you say it and the moderators say it, precludes anyone else from having an opinion and posting it. Drink more decaf.

BTW...I think it is likely a fish storm...but we will see.

[msbee]

storm
what is the problem exactly?
I agree with alx, I think
to me, the more posts the better. No?
everyone has an opinion, everyone has a different angle and way of looking at a storm discussion.
Let them all express themselves even under different threads, if need be.
I don't see it as a problem.
I read it all, and I want as much input as I can get from eveyrone when something may be approaching my area