Frances Advisories

[Ripopgodazippa]

WTNT31 KNHC 030239
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

...FRANCES WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR...NEAR LATITUDE
24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NORTHERN CAT ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 330
MILES...530 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FRANCES IS STILL A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND...AND
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.5 N... 75.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Hurricane Cheese]

135 mph is CAT 4 STEWART!!! What are you talking about Cat 3!?! LOL

[Brent]

Mistake, LOL, unless the winds should be 130 mph which would be Cat 3.

Must be lack of sleep.

[otowntiger]

Otown -- If I was still living in Orlando, I'd board up simply because of all the "missile" debris left over from Charley, but sandbags may be a better investment at this point. Orlando streets flood easily anyway, Frances is going to majorly amplify that.

Stay high and dry!
SeaBrz

Thanks, you're right about all the debris. I still have high piles all up and down our street that the city/county have not been able to get to yet. My neighbor across the street had to abandon his home after Charley because a tree crushed his garagage and the county condemned it. He has a thin sheet of tarp over it, but when the wind blows it lifts back and exposes all those crushed rafters. I suppose some of that could get airborne too. I just don't think we will get that much wind. I could be wrong. I may re-think the boarding up idea tomorrow depending on the track and intensity. She'd slowed down so we have some time, if only I can find some wood now.

[Brent]

If it were doing this 6-12 hours before landfall, I would say good news for Florida but it has plenty of time to recoup and probably will overnight. NHC re-intensifies it to 140 mph before landfall(after weakening it to Cat 3 tomorrow).

[B-Bear]

Well, you could always salvage your neighbor's rafters if you needed to. He's not using them any more.

[Pebbles]

The winds are 135mph in the advisory. That's Cat 4...expect the NHC to resend that advisory stating the correct Cat level.

[Derek Ortt]

Very nice track map


The reason for the sharp turn is due to a trough picking it up at the end. This is nwo supported by much of the guidance, though after we get the GPS into the model, the turn may need to be not as sharp

[birdwomn]

awww, give stewart a break, it was a typo

[Pebbles]

whoops ...forget that..it's IS cat 3...they messed up the winds..the winds in the advisory are 125mph

[Brent]

Nope... they fixed it, it's actually 125 mph.

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 37...Corrected

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 02, 2004

Corrected initial intensity to 125 mph

...Frances weakens slightly...still a dangerous category three
hurricane moving through the Bahamas...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the
middle and upper Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward
to the Seven Mile Bridge...including Florida Bay.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the government of the Bahamas has
discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the southeastern Bahamas.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the central and
northwestern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the eye of Hurricane Frances was located by
reconnaissance aircraft...satellite images and radar...near latitude
24.5 north...longitude 75.4 west or about 25 miles...40 km...
east-southeast of northern Cat Island. This is also about 330
miles...530 km...east-southeast of the Florida lower East Coast.

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr
...And a west-northwest to northwestward motion with some decrease
in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On this
track...the core of Hurricane Frances will continue to move near or
over the central Bahamas tonight...and over the northwestern
Bahamas on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...205 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Frances is still a strong category three hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb...27.99 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 6 to 14 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the eye of Frances on the west side of Eleuthera island...and
on the north side of Grand Bahama Island. Storm surge flooding of
4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west
side of the other islands of the Bahamas. Coastal storm surge
flooding of 6 to 11 feet above normal tide levels...along with
large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall in Florida.

Rainfall amounts of 7 to 12 inches...locally as high as 20 inches...
are possible in association with Frances.

Swells generated by Frances will be affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...24.5 N... 75.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...125 mph. Minimum central pressure... 948 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[gpickett00]

where do you get that information from that it is actually 125

[birdwomn]

this looks amazingly like the LBAR model from the beginning, doesn't it?

[Pebbles]

they fixed the advisory to the correct wind speed

[otowntiger]

Well, you could always salvage your neighbor's rafters if you needed to. He's not using them any more.

That's funny, you're so right!

[Brent]

Very nice track map


The reason for the sharp turn is due to a trough picking it up at the end. This is nwo supported by much of the guidance, though after we get the GPS into the model, the turn may need to be not as sharp

The NHC agrees on the turn as do most of the models I have seen, they just vary on where it will occur.

[gpickett00]

i think that its too hard of a sharp turn at west palm, i think it will be more gradual than that

[btsgmdad]

Derek, what do you attribute the storm's weakening to?

[CourierPR]

Folks, I know that the hour grows late and I am tired, but in looking at the latest IR Floater loop the eye appears to have moved west from 23:15-2:15 UTC.

[ncweatherwizard]

There will be those of you who disagree, but anyhow--this one is about intensity. This thing is getting eaten tonight and fairly quickly. The west side of the storm is obviously eroding--although I'm not seeing significant dry air intrusion. This is a shear situation, very similar to what happened with Isabel last year. A little more work, and we'll see the pressures rocket up. But that shear will relax probably tomorrow, so if it can hold, it will maintain itself. These next few hours could be very critical in the magnitude of damage we see later.