Ivan Advisories

[catzmeow]

d'oh. I feel stupid.

What strength do you predict for this landfall?

[Brent]

d'oh. I feel stupid.

What strength do you predict for this landfall?

Looks like Cat 4 to me.

[ericinmia]

Going by the data i have seen, i don't see the shear producing to the levels they believe. In the path of the storm on its way to cuba the shear has actually been decreasing in the past 24 hours.
-Eric

[canegrl04]

Intensity forecasting is one of the most difficult parts of hurricane tracking. I doubt 100kts is a fact.Maybe stronger,maybe weaker

[Josephine96]

Tampa St Pete is probably more in trouble than Miami currently

[Lockhart]

If you look, the entire decrease is from Cuba to Florida, not before Cuba. So the shear's alleged decrease on the way to Cuba would explain why they forecast Ivan's increase from 115 kts near Jamaica to 125 kts approaching Cuba.

[Josephine96]

934 mb is a huge pressure rise after yesterday's 921

[lookout]

Derek,

I truly respect your analysis.
I'm only saying this because, there will be those that wish to point and say, "he's not perfect! He's changing his mind!"
Folks, if you haven't heard, Mr. Ortt is a straight up good forecaster.
I'd rather heed the advice from a forecaster that uses the resources and adjusts his analysis to the conditions that evolve.
Thank you so very much for your efforst to keep us informed.

there are a million and one people who do the exact same thing. i dont mean to knock him but i see a lot better discussions and verified forecasts than mr. orrt. im not saying he is not good at what he does but i see a lot better out there that dont get nearly as much credit as they deserve.

[Lockhart]

Let's hope it's weaker, then. Frances really took a beating from shear just before landfall. It sure would be great if Ivan did, as well.

[Portastorm]

Geez, you folks in Florida ... it doesn't seem fair. (not that life is fair anyway).

I wouldn't wish this storm on anyone, 'cept maybe a pack of terrorists.

[Stormcenter]

Going by the data i have seen, i don't see the shear producing to the levels they believe. In the path of the storm on its way to cuba the shear has actually been decreasing in the past 24 hours.
-Eric

Oh please come on now. This is great news for Florida or anyone else living along the GOM. A weaker Ivan is a better Ivan.

[B-Bear]

Derek,

I truly respect your analysis.
I'm only saying this because, there will be those that wish to point and say, "he's not perfect! He's changing his mind!"
Folks, if you haven't heard, Mr. Ortt is a straight up good forecaster.
I'd rather heed the advice from a forecaster that uses the resources and adjusts his analysis to the conditions that evolve.
Thank you so very much for your efforst to keep us informed.

there are a million and one people who do the exact same thing. i dont mean to knock him but i see a lot better discussions and verified forecasts than mr. orrt. im not saying he is not good at what he does but i see a lot better out there that dont get nearly as much credit as they deserve.

Well I'll tell you what, Derek has moved a lot less right in his forecasts than the NHC has moved left with theirs.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see the shear from the latest shear tendancy. Maybe NHC is getting this from the GFS as well.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

[BlueNole]

Many thanks, AFM.

[tronbunny]

im not saying he is not good at what he does but i see a lot better out there that dont get nearly as much credit as they deserve.

Thanks, lookout.
Yes, you have a point, but as the NHC uses multiple models and forecasters.
We, here at Storm2K.org, can use the resources of our members.
I'm just adding Mr.s Ortt and Cangiolosi to the "high confidence" list.

[HollynLA]

While I don't want to see anyone dealing with this storm, I feel even more for the people in Florida. This is getting so emotionally draining for most residents there. I wish this thing would hurry up and be done and over with so we can look forward to fall.

While I love the tropics, I can honestly say I'm ready for this season to be over with (and I'm not even in FL)

[Josephine96]

if Ivan bombs.. the big question would be how much more does he grow

[SunnyFla]

I live in Palm Beach and have been without power for 7 days now. We have sewage backing up into the streets and everything. Most of my neighbors have left here heading for Georgia and some to Indiana. We tried obtaining a hotel and the closest hotel I could get into was Hollywood, FL. Now that the Keys are being evacuated they will most likely have to head to Orlando to find hotel space. I have a friend with PB Fire Rescue who said they were going to run the evacuation County by County. First the Keys, then Miami-Dade, then Broward and so on in order to keep the roads from backing up. My husband works evacuation duty in Broward County and there is talk of evacuating as early as Saturday.

Stay safe everyone in Ivan's path!
Donna

[LowMug]

still lots of uncertainty after he crosses Cuba...what concerns me is the continued slow down in movement, lack of steering after 48-72 hrs and this monster stalling

to me they pretty much state they have no idea later in the period

[Derek Ortt]

we'll be giving a briefing to RSMAS in a few hours, so someone sees value in what we do