Ivan Advisories

[Lockhart]

Derek Ortt has impressed me quite a bit from what I've seen during my few weeks reading this board. It's nice to read a calm voice of reason on here, with so many people freaking out all the time.

[vbhoutex]

Stormcenter, I don't believe Eric as saying anything except that he feels the NHC is counting on more shear than he feels there will be based on the data he has seen.

One reason for the 100kts at landfall is the very close proximity of the Hurricane to land for at least the last few hundred miles before that projected landfall point.

One very bad thing about that projected path is the huge amount of storm surge that will be built up along the West coast from way South of Tampa up till landfall, including Tampa Bay. Not a good scenario at all for additional flooding concerns!!! If the current track verifies or at least is held to in the longer term expect more major evacuation orders along the West coast of Florida.

[tronbunny]

I don't see the shear from the latest shear tendancy. Maybe NHC is getting this from the GFS as well.

The image you posted is for the tendency over the last 24 hrs.
I think they see the area north of FL and along the panhandle extending further south. I think that would do it.
I hope!

[Derek Ortt]

I think theya re due to the incorrect GFS position, which causes ships to be off, along with GFDL

GFDN keeps a cat 3/4 all the way to the Panhandle

[Canelaw99]

They have not issued any warnings or watches for western Cuba.

What do they know that the National Hurricane Center doesn't? The cubans have some smart meterologists in their own right and do their own forecasts.

This is interesting to me since Ivan seems to be going to the right of the NHC model guidance.

I was wondering this same thing this morning when I saw the watches up. It would make sense to me that they would have watch up already if that part of the island is supposed to get effects by tomorrow/early Sun. morning. Does make me go hmmmmm.......

[Josephine96]

if I'm not mistaken.. doesn't Cuba's govt. issue advisories for them.. Not NHC

[Lockhart]

Well, if it does stall, you have the NHC's comment that wind shear will hurt Ivan between Cuba and the US. Looking at what happened to a stalled Frances (*hugely* weakened), I don't think I'd worry *too* much about Ivan stalling. Of course, it could intensify, but that's not what they think. Thus, I won't worry about that yet.

[Josephine96]

This darn thing better not stall

[tronbunny]

Nope, I'm in denial...
I see it being picked up by the SW edge of the east FL ridge and whisked, faster NNEward.

I'm an optimist and NOT a met.

[OneIron83]

In speaking to someone at GTMO yesterday they are expecting winds and rain but not much impact of severity. The installation ran a worst case drill yesterday but not expecting to have to use it.

[MetroMike]

Usually radars from a mountainous region leave something to be desired anyhow, wouldn't be too useful in IMHO.

[Lockhart]

Boy, Castro's such a loon. It really is amazing that he's run that country for more than 40 years.

Yeah, we've developed technology to send one hurricane over a little bit of Cuba. Of course, in the process, we've sent *three* hurricanes over South Florida. Great "technology". It'll cost Cuba a couple hundred million, and it'll cost the US tens of billions. Great idea.

What a moron.

[CaptinCrunch]

Remember Charlie was a Cat 2 after crossing cuba and hit Florida as a Cat 4. The waters are much warmer in the GOM and if Ivan does stall it could very well intensify to a strong Cat 4 maybe even a Cat 5 just before landfall.

[Stormtrack03]

One word to explain why Cuba hasd no watches or warnings yet:

CASTRO



enough said ...

[Skywatch_NC]

I have a Wxbuddy named Southernmost Weather (Harry) who lives in the Keys and he's a park service ranger...everyone please keep him and his wife along w/ all other Floridians in your prayers and thoughts during these coming days.

Harry and his wife have decided to "ride out" Ivan! Even though they've been offered shelter up in a park service "bunker" near West Palm Beach and their kids elsewhere in the states have offered them shelter.

Thank you,

Eric

[Josephine96]

I think this'll hit Fla as a 4 too

[x-y-no]

He's interacting more heavily with the ridge now. This is really obvious in both the visible and WV loops if one looks up just over and north of Cuba.

If the ridge were strong, it would accellerate him more westerly. But instead it's weakening, so just slowing him down on his WNW track. The slower he goes, the more time the tip of the ridge has to break down completely. That Atlantic mid to upper low is still headed into the picture and will contribute to that.

[logybogy]

People are really gullible if they believe Castro said something like that. He's a nut, but he's not that nutty. Show me the link and factual proof he said anything of the sort that the US uses technology to direct Hurricanes toward Cuba.

That's total BS. Don't be gullible, people.

[Lebowsky]

Hope for the best but prepare for the worst. I fully expect my home to be fully unscathed when I return from up north.

In the meantime, I'm getting the heck out of dodge.

[B-Bear]

How about if you show a little humility in what you type. I heard it on the news.