Ivan Advisories

[quickychick]

I saw it on MSNBC, It was a video phone reporter there live talking with Wolf Blitzer. It also showed pictures of people boarding up windows in hotels and shops, but they were all just drifting around. They did not look like they were in a hurry. There was a brief segment on a grocery store, but again they looked really calm.

It's the ganja, mon.

[lwg8tr]

You'll be in the worst part of the storm and this is larger than Charley. Some of the models take it back out over the Atlantic as far south as the Vero Beach area. That would probably give you some hurricane force gusts.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_09.gif

I disagree. The hurricane wind field is 40 miles from the center. A Naples landfall would mean tropical storm force. Certainly no Frances 100 mph gusts like we got in Northern Palm Beach. Be prepared; be ready for more power outages, gas shortages, being uncomfortable..but Armageddon, certainly not. We will recover, rebuild and get through all of this. I really don't see any scenario proposed where we here on SE coast can expect a direct hit with those monstrous eyewall winds at Cat3 or Cat4 strength.

That's true, but there are indications Ivan will expand like Frances once it gets into the Gulf. It's still larger than Charley right now.

FWIW... the southernmost model re-emerges it near West Palm Beach.

I saw that, but I have my shutters up and I refuse to be afraid. I have my supplies and my tarped up roof. If I lose my house, I lose my house. It's just stuff. I have about $500,000 in insurance so go ahead Ivan you think you can beat me. BRING IT ON!!!!! I am sick of worrying and wondering. I can't control any of this. I met all my neighbors through all this. We laughed, we cried, we worried. I helped my neighbor dig her water logged wedding album out or her bedroom after the roof collapsed. Cleaned up a kids playroom two doors down cause the homemade addition just couldn’t take 75mph winds for the whole 6 freaking hours, as the kids 5 and 9 wailed. Chain sawed about 2 tanks of gas. We sweated three bottles of Zephyrhills water an hour. I will wait two hours for a tank of overpriced gas, eat 5 more peanut butter sandwiches, take cold showers and listen to local news on my 1988 vintage Sony Walkman. I REFUSE TO BE AFRAID ANYMORE. It's robbing the life from me.

[ColdWaterConch]

http://www.radiojamaica.com

Looks like their server is down right now, but they have a couple of stories about this...how people are slow to evacuate.

[cycloneye]

http://weather.net-waves.com/td09.php

The GFDL line at the link in grafic is the less pronnounced red line.

[dixiebreeze]

Geez, you folks in Florida ... it doesn't seem fair. (not that life is fair anyway).

I wouldn't wish this storm on anyone, 'cept maybe a pack of terrorists.

Forget terrorists! We've got hurricanes

[Johnny]

Hey Purdue, thanks for answering my question.

[smashmode]

I saw a story on the news alittle awhile ago.It was a report from Jamaica and how people are saying it won't hit them,or it won't be very bad.This is sad

And this is why there will be hundreds of fatalities.

[tronbunny]

I wouldn't let my guard down, even if Ivan weakens before landfall.
<snip>
Weakened storms, yes. But able to spread flooding rains and gusty winds over a larger area.

Yeah, see my rant on the saffir-simpson scale.
http://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=43618

[Weatherboy1]

I haven't seen the new GFDL. The timestamp on that one still says 1127Z.

[Dean4Storms]

12z CMC still alot further west over the very tip of Cuba, then north toward the Panhandle.

link.....

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... =Animation

[Josephine96]

The Bay area better be careful. They avoided a catastrophe with Charley..

[yoda]

I haven't seen the new GFDL. The timestamp on that one still says 1127Z.

That is the new GFDL.

[ColdWaterConch]

Key West was known for its conchs (the mollusk/shell) back in the day....the conch is part of the flag, etc....the funny part is that the conch is on the protected species list, so if you so much as breathe on a live conch in the Keys, TPTB don't take kindly to it....

If you ever see a conch shell or each conch chowder in the keys, that conch came from a conch farm in the Bahamas.

[NFLnut]

Draining sure is the word. I was on South Beach last night, and every single person I asked about the hurricane had the same response. Total exhaustion. No one even wants to *think* about this thing hitting us.

I can't imagine what this is like for the people in central Florida.

Once again, we in central Florida are locked in the crosshairs of another major Hurricane. I hope the track moves out into the central Gulf. We need a break!

Not only is it exhausting to go through this week after week, but those of us who own businesses are getting slammed! We lost almost two weeks of revenue during August, and Ivan undoubtedly will cause more losses. One of my offices also lost all of our phones after Frances, and they are telling me that it will be the end of the month before we get them back. I am not including in the above losses the fact that the lack of our business phones is costing me a LOT of business until it gets fixed. This is traditionally my busiest season, and it is now that I usually am storing reserves in order to get through the end of the year!

[cycloneye]

I haven't seen the new GFDL. The timestamp on that one still says 1127Z.

That is the latest run.

[vortex100]

If you look at the image on this link, it appears that the shear will be weakening all along the path of Ivan, allowing for possible intense restrengthening after any disruption over Jamaica.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Praxus]

This article :
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/htm ... CUATE_.asp

mentions that many, many people are not evacuating low lying areas.

If Ivan doesn't weaken from a cat 4 I fear hundreds of deaths as well.
At this point its hard to see how the island can escape almost
complete devastation.

[LakeToho]

Looks like the 6Z forecast to me.. Almost if not identical.

[vortex100]

I have no idea why that link didn't work. The code is fine.

[smashmode]

they will next time!

Looking at how devastating Ivan could be...a next time might not happen?

is that true?