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tropicana
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JAMAICA UNDER STATE OF EMERGENCY

#3421 Postby tropicana » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:09 pm

Jamaican Prime Minister PJ PAtterson has just asked the Governor General to declare a National State Of Emergency for all of Jamaica and all of its territorial waters.


Not surprising really...I'm surprised it wasn't done sooner.

-justin-
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12Z Euro shifted west

#3422 Postby x-y-no » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:09 pm

After a long series of runs consistantly heading into southern Florida, now the Euro goes further west then into the Appalachicola area.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004091012!!!step/
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Re: 12Z Euro shifted west

#3423 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:13 pm

x-y-no wrote:After a long series of runs consistantly heading into southern Florida, now the Euro goes further west then into the Appalachicola area.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004091012!!!step/


Yep, this is the second run in a row... so before I jump onto the WC Fl bandwagon for SURE.. (I am on it... just I have a few doubts left) I want to wait and see what the 00z runs all have... along with the NHC 5 ans 11 PM discusions/tracks.
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#3424 Postby feederband » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:14 pm

i would say they are probably more in a state of shock...
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#3425 Postby justwatching » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:14 pm

Air Force Met wrote:The only thing the upper low to the NE of Ivan is doing is enhancing the outflow. Shear is only a factor to intensification when it impacts the core of the storm...the CDO. When it is on the outside...near the outer bands...it makes little difference at all. Matter of fact...thunderstorms on the outer edge of a hurricane are always getting sheared...mostly form the outflow from the CDO.


If the ne low wasn't there I don't think ivan would lose as much energy.
It just appears the jet stream is preventing the hurricane from growing as it sweeps the outer bands away before it pulls in the energy, if that makes any sense.. It isn't letting the hurricane to "freely" rotate and maximize the potential of the warm water.
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3:15 PM EDT Storm2k Update on Ivan and rest of Atlantic

#3426 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:15 pm

Hurricane Ivan has weakened some today as some dry air has penetrated into the core earlier this morning but this afternoon Ivan is making a comeback although not rapidly.REcon pressures data show a rise indicating that at least for now the hurricane is not intensifying as feared earlier due to the close proximity of Jamaica.However it will fluctuate up and down in intensiry but the sure thing is that it will be a major hurricane when it makes landfall in Cuba.Later in the timeframe still there is uncertainty about where exactly Ivan will go as the forecast models are nor at a tight consensus after 3 days so all interests from New Orleans eastward and down thru the whole Florida Penninsula from the west coast to the east coast must watch the track of Ivan.

Elsewhere in the atlantic:

Tropical waves are located in the tropical atlantic but there are no signs of development at this time.

Disclaimer=This product is not official.The official source is the National Hurricane Center.

Forecaster=Luis Martinez (Cycloneye)
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#3427 Postby ~SirCane » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:15 pm

I agree! Ivan looks more West now. The eye looks like it's going to pass just South of Jamaica. This could be big.
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das8929

#3428 Postby das8929 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:17 pm

Maybe its that lunatic with the 747 dropping junk into the hurricane.
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#3429 Postby feederband » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:17 pm

still a near miss is not good either.
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#3430 Postby GalvestonDuck » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:17 pm

Looks to me like he'll come in from the south and just west of Kingston will get the worst quadrant.
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caneman

#3431 Postby caneman » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:17 pm

That is still a huge problem for West Coast of Florida. This run is actually into the Bog Bend area so you're talking less than 60 mile passing of Pinellas County. And right front Quad. Elena caused huge problems from 100 miles away.
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another synoptics thread

#3432 Postby jpigott » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:17 pm

warning - this is coming from someone who has no meteorology background - warning

i have seen in some previous threads certain atmospheric systems that people say will have an effect on the steering of Ivan, and the impression i get is that there are a higher than average number of these systems than usually affect tropical systems (Ridge in the Atlantic, ULL in the Bahamas, trough and ridge in the GOM, etc, etc) Based on all these numerous factors is it out of the realm of possibility for Ivan to buck all the models (continue west into central/western GOM or the other extreme end up east of FL and into the Bahamas)
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dennis1x1

#3433 Postby dennis1x1 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:18 pm

all the "it looks great on sat" people....no it doesnt......asymmetric and weakening.....looks like a cat 3.
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#3434 Postby cloud_galaxy » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:18 pm

Radio message of the ODPM just came through that shuttles to shelters don't work anymore for Port Royal and Portmore. Those people have to seek shelter on their own now. The population of these towns is about 300,000.
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#3435 Postby mascpa » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:20 pm

It looks to me like Ivan is now moving west instead of WNW. Should this direction continue, the eye will pass to the South of Jamaica. But they'll still get nailed with the powerful NE quadrant.
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almost all models shifting toward Big Bend/Panhand

#3436 Postby Weatherboy1 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:21 pm

It's not just the Euro that's shifting west here. The GFS has been trending westward, as have the tropical models and the GFDL. Meanwhile, the NOGAPS and CMC models have shifted east and the UKMET has shifted slightly west. All are now pointing toward a hit further up the FL coast -- say north of Tampa through Panama City. As I mentioned in another thread, model convergence this far out isn't necessarily a concrete sign that one location or another will get hit. After all, the models were converging toward SW FL yesterday and the day before. But IF -- IF -- this trend persists through the next two global model cycles, then the southern half of FL should be able to breathe a big sigh of relief. We'll know more by midday tomorrow.

For what it's worth, it appears this change is in response to the fact a narrow ridge is holding fast over FL, despite an assault from a trough to the west and a couple of ULLs to the east. If that ridge gives way soon, the storm should turn more northerly soon and the outlook could change. We'll see.
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Re: almost all models shifting toward Big Bend/Panhand

#3437 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:22 pm

Weatherboy1 wrote:It's not just the Euro that's shifting west here. The GFS has been trending westward, as have the tropical models and the GFDL. Meanwhile, the NOGAPS and CMC models have shifted east and the UKMET has shifted slightly west. All are now pointing toward a hit further up the FL coast -- say north of Tampa through Panama City. As I mentioned in another thread, model convergence this far out isn't necessarily a concrete sign that one location or another will get hit. After all, the models were converging toward SW FL yesterday and the day before. But IF -- IF -- this trend persists through the next two global model cycles, then the southern half of FL should be able to breathe a big sigh of relief. We'll know more by midday tomorrow.

For what it's worth, it appears this change is in response to the fact a narrow ridge is holding fast over FL, despite an assault from a trough to the west and a couple of ULLs to the east. If that ridge gives way soon, the storm should turn more northerly soon and the outlook could change. We'll see.


Not entirely true. The tropical models actualy shifted east some.
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#3438 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:23 pm

Plot the forecast points in the IR channel 4 loop...It looks like a wobble, general motion is on track for the west end of jamaica. Still not good. :x
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NorthGaWeather

#3439 Postby NorthGaWeather » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:24 pm

Do you know how to read recon? If you did you would realize it is much healthier than the morning recon flight.
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dennis1x1

#3440 Postby dennis1x1 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:24 pm

ne quadrant of storm vs ne eyewall are 2 huge differences...

if the eye does not hit land, jamaica will not get most powerful part of storm.

that said...i think it will hit far west side....good news for kingston.
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