Ivan Advisories

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caneman

#3441 Postby caneman » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:25 pm

For the reocrd ECMWF has the system in the big bend area east of Appalachicola which has huge negative implications for West Florida.
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#3442 Postby Pebbles » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:25 pm

It's stair stepping...Frances did this tons too..bet he jog's north again within the next couple of floater frames...and will bet a crow taco (will eat a crow taco if I am wrong) Ivan WILL make landfall on Jamaica.
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#3443 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:25 pm

dennis1x1 wrote:all the "it looks great on sat" people....no it doesnt......asymmetric and weakening.....looks like a cat 3.


:roflmao:

Do you ever think a storm looks great?
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New recon.. 937 MB...

#3444 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:31 pm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/URNT12.0409101931

MAX FL WIND 123 KT NW QUAD 1743Z.
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golter

#3445 Postby golter » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:32 pm

Yeah and I'm going to miss the floor when I fall out of my chair...
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#3446 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:32 pm

Hmm... I just posted the new recon.. 937 MB.. oh yeah that is a Cat 3 Alright! :lol: :lol:
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#3447 Postby calidoug » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:32 pm

And that's the weak quad...
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#3448 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:33 pm

Told ya it wasn't a Cat 3. :lol:
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kevin

#3449 Postby kevin » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:35 pm

Yuck. Well it appears over.. but the satellite presentation doesn't look that great. Guess the storm can't have both at the same time..
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#3450 Postby Tip » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:35 pm

And he's got his eye on the the really warm Gulf stream that gave Charley a boost after Cuba.
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#3451 Postby calidoug » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:36 pm

You're wrong Dennis. The latest recon confirms it.
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#3452 Postby -=- » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:36 pm

I looked at 2pm EST today and the chart showed a direct hit on Tallahassee, FL
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#3453 Postby jdt » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:36 pm

The strongest quad is not always the NE. What is normally the strongest quad is the right front quad with relation to the storms motion. In Ivan's case that is the NW quad currently.

JDT
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#3454 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:36 pm

LOL

I think he'll hit the western end of the island, but not Kingston. That does NOT mean they won't get strong winds though. They will.
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#3455 Postby calidoug » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:37 pm

The satellite presentation makes it quite clear that the NW quad is not the strongest.
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#3456 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:37 pm

and so does the ECMWF.. but that is based on its crappy graphics on http://www.ecmwf.int/
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das8929

#3457 Postby das8929 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:39 pm

Hmm I wonder if its strengthening?
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#3458 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:40 pm

das8929 wrote:Hmm I wonder if its strengthening?


The pressure is down which means it's strengthening. :wink:
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#3459 Postby feederband » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:43 pm

It's like a bouncy ball :D :( :D :( :D :( :D :( :D :( :D :( :D :( :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#3460 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:44 pm

Exactly right Pebbles. All hurricanes especially strong ones that ar pushing up against a strong ridge stair step along the periphery of that ridge. The edge of the ridge is not a nice smooth line.

Jamaica will get slammed no matter what. It not a huge island and I do not think that if the current track and strength hold that there is any portion of the island that will see below Category 3 winds.
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