Ivan Advisories

#3501 Postby **HollynLA** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:38 pm

hmmmm, wonder what the next forecast track will be?

calidoug · #3502 Postby **calidoug** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:38 pm

The NHC is behind on the data. They need immediate recon.

This storm is BOMBING right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

#3503 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:38 pm

Below is a quote from the 5:00pm discussion.
I think you are seeing the beginnings of a westward
trend in NHC thinking. I'm starting to see a FL.
panhandle problem here.

However...models are becoming in better
agreement on a track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although
the official forecast could have been shifted a little westward due
to the new guidance...it is not prudent to make a change at this
time. The official forecast is now basically to the right of the
guidance envelope...and keeps the hurricane on a northward track
very close to the Florida West Coast.

Fodie77 · #3504 Postby **Fodie77** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:39 pm

140 mph...What were the max. winds when Ivan slammed into Grenada?

B-Bear · #3505 Postby **B-Bear** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:39 pm

Not good right before landfall. Hurricanes that make landfall while intensifying are the worst--i.e., Andrew, Ivan in Grenada...etc.

Fodie77 · #3506 Postby **Fodie77** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:40 pm

calidoug wrote:The NHC is behind on the data. They need immediate recon.

This storm is BOMBING right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

I haven't seen some real purples in the convection for a while now.

#3507 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:40 pm

Fodie77 wrote:http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_5day.html

5-day map

Go west Ivan, Fl. Panhandle?

Website · #3508 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:41 pm

Fodie77 wrote:140 mph...What were the max. winds when Ivan slammed into Grenada?

120-125 mph.

chris_fit · #3509 Postby **chris_fit** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:41 pm

I totally disagree with lowering the winds right before landfall, even if it has to be for political reasons. Even if the are 140 there are always those that will think "oh it's weaker"

Clearly the hurricane has strengthened since noon today. I dont konw what they are thinking.

I am dissapointed.

It doesnt take a "Dr." to see this.

Whatever

B-Bear · #3510 Postby **B-Bear** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:41 pm

Man...it looks like it's going to hit Kingston dead on too.

lurkerinthemidst · #3511 Postby **lurkerinthemidst** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:43 pm

Ok I am confused
So they are keeping close to the coast and it isn't ?
Or did I completely misread that? I am SOOOO CONFUSED!! Trying to decide if I am leaving town or not.

Fodie77 · #3512 Postby **Fodie77** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:43 pm

Brent wrote:
Fodie77 wrote:140 mph...What were the max. winds when Ivan slammed into Grenada?

120-125 mph.

Wow, and look at what that did to Grenada. I remember watching Max Mayfield on TV during the Frances coverage. I recall him saying that the increase in structural damage that goes along with a 20-30mph wind increase between categories is exponential.

Matthew5 · #3513 Postby **Matthew5** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:43 pm

Now that hurricane looks to be looking alot more oreganized. The reds in the blacks are covering the eye all the way around. This is getting stronger!

#3514 Postby **tracyswfla** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:45 pm

I AM SO CONFUSED!

Fodie77 · #3515 Postby **Fodie77** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:47 pm

I don't think its unreasonable to say that we could be looking at a 155mph Cat 5 moments before a Jamaican landfall.

chris_fit · #3516 Postby **chris_fit** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:47 pm

It means the official forcast is east (right) of the model consesus.

#3517 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:48 pm

yoda wrote:
Weatherboy1 wrote:It's not just the Euro that's shifting west here. The GFS has been trending westward, as have the tropical models and the GFDL. Meanwhile, the NOGAPS and CMC models have shifted east and the UKMET has shifted slightly west. All are now pointing toward a hit further up the FL coast -- say north of Tampa through Panama City. As I mentioned in another thread, model convergence this far out isn't necessarily a concrete sign that one location or another will get hit. After all, the models were converging toward SW FL yesterday and the day before. But IF -- IF -- this trend persists through the next two global model cycles, then the southern half of FL should be able to breathe a big sigh of relief. We'll know more by midday tomorrow.

For what it's worth, it appears this change is in response to the fact a narrow ridge is holding fast over FL, despite an assault from a trough to the west and a couple of ULLs to the east. If that ridge gives way soon, the storm should turn more northerly soon and the outlook could change. We'll see.

Not entirely true. The tropical models actualy shifted east some.

You guys need to read the 5pm discussion and not focus on these model runs. The NHC is already hinting at westward trend. They decided to hold off on any changes this advisory.

#3518 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:48 pm

It means we and they don't know what Ivan will do exactly where and when.

quickychick · #3519 Postby **quickychick** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:49 pm

I just didn't understand the "wouldn't be prudent" to follow model guidance...why not say why? Trough/ULL/little green men holding him hostage/whatever?

yoda · #3520 Postby **yoda** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:49 pm

I saw and read it.. and agree that it is prudent to hold the 5 day map where it is.

Ivan Advisories

Ivan 5pm discussion interesting

Re: almost all models shifting toward Big Bend/Panhand

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