Ivan Advisories

[B-Bear]

Ok I am confused. Trying to decide if I am leaving town or not.

Bingo! This is exactly what I'm talking about when I say that the NHC forecasting shear to weaken this storm to a cat 3, without giving some explanation as to where this shear is coming from, is going to end up getting people killed. This is the mentality of many Floridians right now. They aren't thinking, "There is a potential for a cat 5 hurricane and I better get the hell out of Dodge." They're thinking, "Well, if the NHC says it's going to be a cat 3 and it doesn't look like it's going to hit close to me I might stay."

The NHC better get on the stick and explain the true potential danger of this storm, because I don't think it is truly sinking in with some people. (not talking about you, your comment just illustrated the larger picture. )

[BayouVenteux]

hmmmm, wonder what the next forecast track will be?

Whatever it is, this is a terrific example of the NHC's raison d'etre. The simple fact of the matter is that the greater public safety far outweighs any concerns about nailing a forecast track in area where the hurricane will likely not be for another 36 to 48 hours...maybe longer. To lay down a graphic with a discernible westward shift of any kind, albeit even a temporary one that might only last until the next six-hour advisory, could, upon it's release to the media and world-at-large, give a false sense of security to people living on the peninsula...the NHC DOES NOT want any misinterpretation of the meaning of the forecast track cone that would lead to a "We thought it was gonna go on up to Tampa!" repeat of Charley.

[Brent]

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphic ... 1538W5.gif

[calidoug]

The point is really that the recon data is old, and during the last hour or so, the storm has really intensified-- look at the satellite loops.

[x-y-no]

You guys need to read the 5pm discussion and not focus on these model runs. The NHC is already hinting at westward trend. They decided to hold off on any changes this advisory.

Now why would we "need" to do that? If the only purpose of this board were to get the official forecasts and thinking of the NHC, then none of us would "need" to be here at all, and in fact this board wouldn't "need" to be here at all.

If, OTOH one's purpose in being here is to learn something about meteorology, then I'd say we do indeed "need" to focus on model runs.

PS. I have no significant disagreement with the NHC forecast and discussion. It's (as usual) very sensible and appropriate to its purpose. It just so happens not to fulfill my "needs" to look at things in greater depth.

Sorry if that bothers you.

[spaceisland]

Appears to be a jog from WNW to the northwest toward Kingston, confirmed on Jamaica radar (see other thread). A small shift from wnw to nw at this point could have much larger implications down the road... after Jamaica.

[Fodie77]

The point is really that the recon data is old, and during the last hour or so, the storm has really intensified-- look at the satellite loops.

Speaking of which, when should the next vortex message be coming out?

[chris_fit]

I check every 5 min when it comes out i'll post it.

i expect, again, a slightly lower pressure.

[chris_fit]

Also, the last recond isnt too old. it's about 2 hours i believe.

[ColdFront77]

This will be very interesting to monitor in the coming hours...

[calidoug]

Yep, the 2045Z continues the motion.

If this holds up for another several hours, there will be FL implications.

[FritzPaul]

A westward wobble wouldn't be to suprising due to the south orientation of the convection.

Remember: Frances did the same thing, and when it rotates north of the eye a northward wobble ensued.

[Mattie]

did you notice on the link to the server is "ratfish"? Perhaps this could be a new nomenclature for unpredictable storms like Ivan. . .

[FritzPaul]

They're going to have to change the y-axis for pressure and wind.

[spaceisland]

as calidoug said, it would have to pass the test of time... duration of an apparent directional change is everything...

[c5Camille]

my impression is that they truely belive this thing
is going to go further West... and that they are not
going to change the official forcast for fear that
another "Charlie" happens... and the thing slams
east. They don't want to let West coast of Florida
to put there guard down untill they are MUCH more
certain of the track. they are covering there a$$
and i can't blame them... In reality the cone is
supposed to cover this type of fudge for them.

BTW Orrt... you are the MAN! you saw this 2 days ago...

[Brent]

did you notice on the link to the server is "ratfish"? Perhaps this could be a new nomenclature for unpredictable storms like Ivan. . .

It's a different server. It updates faster than the NHC site.

[Lindaloo]

Atlanta was slammed by Frances.

[greeng13]

this might not be the proper thread to ask this question but why do they account so far east in the cone? is it due to the ULL from texas that i've heard so much about or the weakening ULL(?) over the bahamas..or both?

i mean is it poss. that ivan could go this far east and actually miss florida and hit nc?

or could it also be based on some sort of trend this year?

i looked up historical storms and it seems that some years they just go in one direction so to speak

frances and gaston excluded

[feederband]

Maybe ground zero. More of a northern wobble.