Earl Advisories

[Anonymous]

Not sure where is is going to go but if you are in the cone prepare. Wouldn't you all agree?

[Stormcenter]

While we wait on Earl's future path there is an interesting spin that's developed north of the Yucatan in the GOM.
Any comments?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Anonymous]

Im still leaning towards a US landfall, I just think itll start picking up latittude within time.

[Guest]

I don't see anything. All I see is explosive clouds. LOL, is that what I am suppose to look at?

[Stormcenter]

I don't see anything. All I see is explosive clouds. LOL, is that what I am suppose to look at?

Speed the loop and you'll see the twist.

[Guest]

I saw that, but I guessed it never registered, hence, why I wear glasses...

[wx247]

Hmmm... Earl looks much better to me this evening on the latest pics.

[PurdueWx80]

It's probably a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). I noticed it as well, but unless deep convection forms over it, nothing should happen. MCVs usually form in the middle of the US in the northern end of bow echoes, but they often form in the Tropics as well. That one happens to be on the cold front in the Gulf. There are quite a few studies that show MCVs blossoming into tropical systems, and it is theorized that many storms actually form once a low level circulation center forms underneath this midlevel vortex. We sort of see that with Earl today actually.

[goodlife]

just so long as it stays away from me..I don't CARE!!
Not really..I hope it hits somewhere very sparsely populated...preferably not populated at all..
Too much destruction....

[wx247]

In my very humble opinion, I have a feeling this will come onshore near Brownsville actually. It is going to be a close call. It depends on that pesky little trough.

[Stormcenter]

In my very humble opinion, I have a feeling this will come onshore near Brownsville actually. It is going to be a close call. It depends on that pesky little trough.

Can you say Opal track?

[OtherHD]

Opal track.

[Nimbus]

Looks like another flare up starting near 12.9 N 63.4W that should Yo Yo the pressures again.

[kevin]

If he makes it that far, I say Mexico.

[tdess02]

I feel confident in the models this year as they have performed rather well. I also have been track ing hurricanes for many years and I know that even slight changes in speed or direction can alter forecasted tracks drastically. Right now it appears that Earl will stay south and not be a US problem, however, it he continues to slow down and starts getting more latitude, then we are looking at a Gulf Coast landfall. Earl is still far enough from landfall at this point that the track can change quiite a bit before the models hone in on a target area.

[kevin]

Somebody was bound to say it, and it might as well be me. Tropical storm Earl, moving rapidly, has little cold convection left... and looks very ragged. Not impressed with Earl at all.

[Anonymous]

Its a tropical storm? What do you expect?

[kevin]

In the central Caribbean, tropical storms like that, tend to die. This is just from memory. Some things I expect....

(1)cluster of convection in the center looking better than it's outflow.

[Anonymous]

TS's always refire convection, and it ends up dying, and reoccuring. This happens until the storm strengthens into a strong TS or hurricane. Doesnt surprise me.

[wx247]

I think (IMHO) its structure looks better now than it did earlier today.