Charley Advisories

[Josephine96]

Thanks Luis.. Storm still bookin along.

[Josephine96]

2-1 odds about what lol

[Rainband]

I am still seeing the old GFDL run. Wheres the new one??

[Josephine96]

We just have to wait and see what both storms will do in the next few days

[jlauderdal]

2-1 odds about what lol

Ortt bets 10 bucks and gets 20 back if they find a wave, if its closed watkins gets ortts 10 bucks and ortt eats crow

[TheWeatherZone]

LOL Steve, I just had to say that! I'm more concerned about my vacation in Myrtle Beach, SC next week. I don't need rainy conditions my whole vacation. A day of gusty winds and rains is fine, but I want it in and out very quickly. Now not only do I have to worry about Bonnie, but Charley is right behind her.

Mike~

[Rainband]

Tuesday morning. He meant Wednesday right

[Matthew5]

If they find a wave I will eat 10 year old dead crow! You can easly see the LLCC around 14.5/69.5/69.7 the system is getting slowly better organized!

[stormcrow]

I'm getting more and more nervous to post here

[Josephine96]

LOL.. Well the 2pm is out and Charley's still kicking lol

[Weatherboy1]

Here is a midday graphic showing the latest GFDL run. 1800 UTC tropics aren't out yet:

[cycloneye]

Tuesday morning. He meant Wednesday right

Yes Wednesday morning will come very close to Jamaica.

[Josephine96]

LOL I just noticed that

[Josephine96]

Still a lot of different paths it looks like

[Rainband]

I like that model run a lot better You guys need the rain down there

[Derek Ortt]

I said I would not be surprised. That is not my forecast, however. If it slows as I am expecting, this will become a hurricane. However, if it does not, the best we will do is what GFS is saying with its intensity model (AVNI), keeping the system at its current intensity until landfall

[Steve]

Thanks for the update weatherboy. I checked the related GFS and it appears to make Charley part of the front (which it anticipates being lined up someone SSW-NNE across FL. It's got the bulk of the rain in SC by Sunday (but doesn't look very severe in the precip totals). It may be right, but I woudln't have guessed it unless the forward speed doesn't decrease.

Steve

[Rainband]

Plus going over eastern cuba would weaken it and give it little time to strengthen verses the warm GOM waters. That would be a good track, it would give southern Florida some much needed rain

[TheWeatherZone]

Here is a midday graphic showing the latest GFDL run. 1800 UTC tropics aren't out yet:

LMAO that GFDL is heading right for Myrtle Beach, SC. I'll be there next week, haha I find that funny! I don't believe it, but its a good laugh!

Mike~

[chris_fit]

well,

what a difference 24 hours makes. Congrats to the global models for screwing up yet another shear forecast.

I would now not be surprised if recon finds that Charley is no longer a tropical cyclone. The circulation is not as evident as it was yesterday. The rapid movement, along with the unexpected westerly shear is preventing this from organizing

I think its looking better in every single new frame.