Ivan Advisories

#3601 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:06 pm

Yeah...looks like some serious development is underway. The outflow is still squashed a bit in the far NNW of the storm, but perfect elsewhere and improving there. The ideas I mentioned earlier about a rotation around the northern side of the island are pretty much out of the picture. Ivan will be approaching Jamaica at an angle too far to the south to do this now.

#3602 Postby **AJC3** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:06 pm

Scott_inVA wrote:
greeng13 wrote:calidoug...if you don't mind...what exactly is "bombing"? i've heard it mentioned a few times in the past couple of days

Generally speaking, low pressure "bombs out" when the low drops 24mb in 24 hours. Unscientific but generally accepted.

Scott

Not exactly unscientific. If I remember my Holton right, Bergeron actually defined rapid intensification as a fall equivalent to the rate of 24MB/24hr * (sin [latitiude]) for at least 12 hours.

OK OK...before y'all start calling me Mr. Smarty-pants...all that math gobbledygook means is that you need a fall rate >24MB/24hr north of 45N and <24MB/24hr south of 45N. At least that's what I remember - If anyone cares to dig it up, feel free to correct me on this.

yoda · #3603 Postby **yoda** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:07 pm

LOL!!! I understand it all AJC3!! Thanks!

#3604 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:07 pm

You are correct!!

Myersgirl · #3605 Postby **Myersgirl** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:08 pm

http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurrica ... m#ANALYSIS:

TheWriteIdea · #3606 Postby **TheWriteIdea** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:09 pm

Are people at the NHC "approachable"? Or is this some high and mighty organization where forecasters are "guarded" like the President? I am getting so ticked off reading all this stuff...I feel like picking up the phone and speaking to someone in charge. Of course, since I'm not a met I couldn't coherently articulate my frustration....and I'd probably have the CIA knocking at my door

#3607 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:09 pm

Myersgirl wrote:http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurricanes1.htm#ANALYSIS:

gezzz ...this site is sooo hard to read....

canegrl04 · #3608 Postby **canegrl04** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:10 pm

Very bad timing for ivan to be in a strengthening phase. I dread tomorrow,as reports of the destruction and death come in

yoda · #3609 Postby **yoda** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:11 pm

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:
Myersgirl wrote:http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurricanes1.htm#ANALYSIS:

gezzz ...this site is sooo hard to read....

I understood it and read it... is there a problem CHV?

Ixolib · #3610 Postby **Ixolib** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:11 pm

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:
Myersgirl wrote:http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurricanes1.htm#ANALYSIS:

gezzz ...this site is sooo hard to read....

I'll second that...

huricanwatcher · #3611 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:12 pm

DITTO

x-y-no · #3612 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:20 pm

Comparing the initialization of the 18Z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp0_000.shtml

with the 6 hour of the 12Z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_000.shtml

one sees they are quite different at 500mb.

The anticipated backing off of the 588 hight line hasn't materialized. In fact, the 588 line is now wrapped around to the west of him, which would imply further slowing.

At this point, I'm not going to look further at this run, since it seems the GFS once again is having trouble predicting the strength of a ridge. (besides, it's time to head for the game)

I do still think the low in the Atlantic is going to be a player in this whole thing, and the big question in my mind is how fast the storm moves. I'm still not confident it won't be slower than the models suggest for the next 36 hours at least.

cloud_galaxy · #3613 Postby **cloud_galaxy** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:21 pm

What a face!! :eek:

#3614 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:22 pm

yoda wrote:
charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:
Myersgirl wrote:http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurricanes1.htm#ANALYSIS:

gezzz ...this site is sooo hard to read....

I understood it and read it... is there a problem CHV?

it is to busy...different text sizes, graphics here and there, embedded links, colors.....I have nothing against anything but the format of the website....too busy!

#3615 Postby **gatorbabe79** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:24 pm

Will this mean no more Red Stripe?

#3616 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:25 pm

Fascinating -- good info and I hope he's correct.

Thunder44 · #3617 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:27 pm

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:
yoda wrote:
charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:
Myersgirl wrote:http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurricanes1.htm#ANALYSIS:

gezzz ...this site is sooo hard to read....

I understood it and read it... is there a problem CHV?

it is to busy...different text sizes, graphics here and there, embedded links, colors.....I have nothing against anything but the format of the website....too busy!

I agree sometimes the site is a bit hard to read because of the format. But I kind of gotten used to it now.

Myersgirl · #3618 Postby **Myersgirl** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:29 pm

Sometimes these post get lost in an odd direction. I agree, there is definitely lots of info to digest there but, the point is, what do you think of his forecast?

Foladar · #3619 Postby **Foladar** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:31 pm

I'm a tad .. bit .. off but his forecast says SW FLA coast?

calidoug · #3620 Postby **calidoug** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:31 pm

Ivan Advisories

DT says to watch for the point of North turn

Re: DT says to watch for the point of North turn

Re: DT says to watch for the point of North turn

Re: DT says to watch for the point of North turn

It appears the 12Z GFS was too fast breaking down the ridge

Re: DT says to watch for the point of North turn

Re: DT says to watch for the point of North turn

Detailed Jamaica Map

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