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air360
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cat 5 MB

#3681 Postby air360 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:02 pm

at what MB would you consider a storm to be a cat 5...i mean i know thre isnt some special number...but in general...around what area of MB would their be serious thought given that the storm has increased to a cat 5 again
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jpigott
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Max Mayfield - Miami not out of the woods

#3682 Postby jpigott » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:02 pm

just saw this on TV, not that i thought they ever were, but its just the way he said it . . . anyone else hear this and have thoughts
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Matthew5

#3683 Postby Matthew5 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:02 pm

926 or lower?
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#3684 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:03 pm

Low 920's, 921 mb roughly.
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#3685 Postby PurdueWx80 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:03 pm

It depends on a lot of things, including the environment surrounding the storm. 920-925 is probably close to the limit.
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#3686 Postby southerngale » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:03 pm

I never thought Miami was out of the woods, or anyone in the eastern GOM.

Right now I'm feeling really bad for Jamaica. :(
Last edited by southerngale on Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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air360
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#3687 Postby air360 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:03 pm

thanks guys...now i at least have an idea of what area im looking for before i start looking for the "its a cat 5 again" posts :)
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#3688 Postby canegrl04 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:03 pm

Andrew was at 922mb
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caneman

#3689 Postby caneman » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:03 pm

ericinmia wrote:LOL you all are funny...

What DT is saying is...

-He is throwing out the models...
-The storm is heading more NW now, and he predicts after Jamaica it to turn more.
-He Disputes the models bringing the storm into the far western cuba.
-He believes the synoptic data to point to the storm "turning north along 79, 80, 81, or 82 west"
-He said he does not see this storm landfalling any further north than Tampa.
-He believes this is a serious threat to southeast fla.
-Virginia and the carolinas could have this storm sitting on top of them eventually for three plus days... intense flooding.

There might have been a couple other minor details... but that is the jist of it.
He explains his thoughts on each model and backs them up with proof.
Remember DT is VERY good at what he does, and makes very good long range forecasts week+ in advance and when he is wrong he states it immediately. I trust him greatly.

He is the king of synoptic data, and the models are not being very reliable with this storm because of the complexity of the situation... so i would trust what he says for he can read synoptic data better than most anyone.

On a side note... it is interesting how cuba posted hurricane warnings only for the east, and central... mabye their met office sees something too? That is where DT belives the storm will cross also.
-Eric


Western Cuba is indeed under a Hurricane Watch. The models have actually been fairly tightly clustered with little shifts back in forth and that is why I suspect Avila waited. Perhaps he sees reason to believe that they'll swing 50 miles or so either was at every update.
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#3690 Postby Deenac813 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:04 pm

I am hoping he is just saying that to keep us on our toes??? I can hope can't I? :D
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#3691 Postby dhweather » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:04 pm

I don't think anyone east of Louisiana is out of the woods.
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#3692 Postby canegrl04 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:06 pm

Yeah,right now all I can think about is Jamaica :(
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Foladar

#3693 Postby Foladar » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:07 pm

Actually, it is prob being said to keep us on our toes.
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ericinmia
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#3694 Postby ericinmia » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:07 pm

Actually.....


Technically we have cut all the trees down in miami so we are out of the woods... we plant foilage where we like... kill it where we don't.

lol
-Eric

BTW:
http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurrica ... m#ANALYSIS:
Check what DT is saying about miami.... he is predicting the storm to pass very close if not over miami!
-Eric
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#3695 Postby Fodie77 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:10 pm

Lockhart wrote:
Fodie77 wrote:
Matthew5 wrote:
Fodie77 wrote:
Innotech wrote:winds will pick up soon. 150-155 mph borderline Cat 5 on Jamaica landfall looks likely


:eek: I pray to God you're wrong, but it does seem more and more likely at this point.


Who do you think is doing this??? Thats right its God.


You're absolutely right. But prayer can't hurt can it? I'm sure he'd listen to both sides of the story. :wink:


Seems like you must think God awfully perverse if he "likes" listening to a bunch of innocent people he's doomed to death and destruction praying fruitlessly for his mercy.


I am amazed by the fact that I originally made a comment that I would be praying for those in Jamaica, and now suddenly I'm a perverse s.o.b.
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#3696 Postby JoanFlorida » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:11 pm

Chris...down to earth explanation...simple, easy to understand graphics...love it!

Are you at Florida Tech? I used to work in publications there...small world!

Thanks for your opinion...love your hurricane tips and observations too!
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FritzPaul
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#3697 Postby FritzPaul » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:12 pm

Hopefully the looters will be out when he passes by and takes them all out to sea.
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#3698 Postby justwatching » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:12 pm

Yep, the bomb is about to really go off.
Look at the infrared loops and you'll see the low that was draining ivan to the ne is now weakening and the stream from Ivan to the ne is receding. Ivan will build up in a hurry,imo.
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chris_fit
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#3699 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:12 pm

Yes... FL Tech Panther alright :)

Thanks!
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Lockhart
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#3700 Postby Lockhart » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:14 pm

I find this discussion surreal. The NHC is being attacked for prudently keeping a warning up. Let's look at the two scenarios, and you can decide which harms more people.

1) Present situation. The NHC ends up being prudent for no reason and the hurricane goes further West than they say in the next couple days. They move the 3-5 day cone slightly West if they need to, giving the people in the Panhandle and neighboring states plenty of time to go any direction but South.

2) The NHC moves the cone west now instead. They end up being wrong, and Ivan moves East in the next couple days. Suddenly, they have to move the *one* to 2 day cone back over people they just told were pretty much safe. Now, the *entire* state of Florida has one to two days to flee--all straight North up the same roads.

Do you really think 2) is more "prudent" than 1)?
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